ShawniganLake Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 That's promising!Anyway it's a sunny quiet morning here with a temp of 36 degrees. Finally got power back late last evening.The 6Z had thickness bottom out at 528, the 12z has it closer to 521/522, for Seattle. So the airmass is looking colder on this run. I know people went over the top yesterday with a couple epic cold runs, but really I haven't seen any reason to think this was going to be much more than a quick hitting 2-3 day cold shot for Washington and BC, maybe an inversion setting up after and remaining cold at the surface. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 You know the models are actually trending better for snow at my location... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 We go from a long term snow/cold solution to a classic El Nino signal. Is anyone really that surprised? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 The 12Z GFS model generated 2m temps do not look to get out of the 20's and 30's at Seattle or PDX after Tuesday for the remainder of the run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 The 12Z GFS model generated 2m temps do not look to get out of the 20's and 30's at Seattle after Tuesday for the remainder of the run.That sounds promising! Our area would do even better I'm sure! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 How was the Canadian? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 How was the Canadian?-25C 850 temps close to the border in some spots at hour 240. Still shows a trough on Monday-Tuesday. Maybe we'll get snow up here and maybe in WA? I don't know. It's definitely the coldest in 10 days though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 -25C 850 temps close to the border in some spots at hour 240. Still shows a trough on Monday-Tuesday. Maybe we'll get snow up here and maybe in WA? I don't know. It's definitely the coldest in 10 days though.Sounds good. Must be why no one mentioned it Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Ensembles are meh Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 The 12Z GFS model generated 2m temps do not look to get out of the 20's and 30's at Seattle or PDX after Tuesday for the remainder of the run. it does seem to lock us into some low level cold. unfortunately for the rest of the winter it is due to splitting that we don't want to see long term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PV=nRT Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 While many of you on this forum have a good handle on the biases of the different models this is a good opportunity to track each model and after the event debrief the performance of the models in terms of how each model handled the progression of features and intensity of cold. I noticed sometimes we move on to the next event without really having a discussion of how the models actually performed. This would give you more insight into the future performance and biases of each of the models..... Always enjoy weather out of the ordinary. Keep your fingers crossed, it might help. 3 Quote Location: 10 miles south of downtown Portland between Gladstone and Milwaukie Elevation: 335' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 The 12Z GFS OP is very underwhelming. It looks warmer than any of last Novembers cold snaps. it has just enough precip to get me a bit over 12" of rain for the month though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 12z Euro is a turd sandwich so far our to hr 144. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Still it looks like possible snow for my house tuesday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 The Euro has us back in the green 850's Wednesday morning. It looks like Seattle bottoms out around -5 850's and warms up Wednesday. Seattle may not even get their first freeze out of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Euro looks like one hell of an inversion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Euro looks like one hell of an inversion.Would be nice to lay some snow down before the inversion from hell takes over! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Euro is awful. WAY East. Looks dry though with offshore flow so it would still be chilly. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015111912/ecmwf_T850_namer_9.png12z euro so bad it is good? hr 192 ridge gets destroyed nearly and a large deep trough headed east towards us out of the GOA? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015111912/ecmwf_T850_namer_9.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Unfortunately the 12z GFS operational may be a tad bit optimistic. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Unfortunately the 12z GFS operational may be a tad bit optimistic. that statement may be a tad bit optimistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Just an odd setup, still looks like we will be stuck in low level cold, at least we get a break from the rain.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015111912/ecmwf_T850_namer_10.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WS Snow Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Any hope for the mountains next week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Any hope for the mountains next week?nothing too negative, so that is good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Euro is awful. WAY East. Looks dry though with offshore flow so it would still be chilly. Looking bleak. There is no real cold air to work with next week so the pattern becomes less important. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Looking bleak. There is no real cold air to work with next week so the pattern becomes less important.So highs near 50 and lows in the upper 30's? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 So highs near 50 and lows in the upper 30's? More like highs in the 40s, lows in the 30s, and 20s in outlying areas. Nothing exciting, but a break from the rain for some people. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Nothing "arctic" about this I'll make a bold prediciton and say we will NOT see this snow this fall and winter. Solution: Extract a huge chunk of dry ice from mars and toss it into the pacific ocean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Nothing "arctic" about this I'll make a bold prediciton and say we will NOT see this snow this fall and winter. Solution: Extract a huge chunk of dry ice from mars and toss it into the pacific ocean.LOL. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Any hope for the mountains next week? 12z ECMWF still shows some mountain snow next week for the Cascades. At least the snowpack won't be decimated before thanksgiving. If anything this will help solidfy the base with clear cold nights coming up. I just dont want us to get into a prolonged dry splitty weather pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 If the PV aloft wasn't in such a strong, barotropic state, this upcoming wave breaking event would have led to a significant block, and a major/prolonged Arctic blast(s) in the western & central US. Unfortunately, in this case, we're going right back into a Niño/+NAM pattern as we head into early/mid December. #nationwideblowtorch 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WS Snow Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Scott Sistek @ScottSKOMO 27m27 minutes ago Is it really going to snow next week here? In a nutshell:Looks cold enough, but moisture lacking for big event. Maybe sct snow showers Tr-1" **I guess something is better than nothing before the torch... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 12Z high res Euro shows lows of 30-44ish next week and no snow. Hopefully it's better for you down there, because this is winter cancel here. I like winter cancel rhetoric to articulate my disapproval of the model run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 This has been a monumental collapse of the models. We have, in 24 hours time, gone from having an almost unprecedented agreement of an arctic event among the GFS operational, the Euro operational and most members of the GFS ensemble to a unilateral agreement among all models that there will be no meaningful arctic air intrusion at all. I guess I'll just consider myself lucky to have had a potential event to follow. When you are a demented weather weenie it doesn't take much to make you happy sometimes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 This has been a monumental collapse of the models. We have, in 24 hours time, gone from having an almost unprecedented agreement of an arctic event among the GFS operational, the Euro operational and most members of the GFS ensemble to a unilateral agreement among all models that there will be no meaningful arctic air intrusion at all. I guess I'll just consider myself lucky to have had a potential event to follow. When you are a demented weather weenie it doesn't take much to make you happy sometimes.Blame the Canadians. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 BIGGEST BUST EVER! The models go from cold to chilly in a matter of 24 hours! Unprecedented shift. Thanksgiving looks lovely, though. Clear, crisp and emotionally crippling. 5 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 BIGGEST BUST EVER! The models go from cold to chilly in a matter of 24 hours! Unprecedented shift. Thanksgiving looks lovely, though. Clear, crisp and emotionally crippling. Can't you tell how crippled I am!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Komo 4 is so far behind it's not even funny. Seth Wayne writes up the worst discussions in the history of the internet. He talks about how he put in mixed rain and snow for early next week, but also mentioned that some models have snow down to Sea Level in a sense that it was the most likely scenario. Sea-tac probably doesn't have a high below 42. He also says tonight is going to be VERY COLD in bold lettering. On the 7 day forecast it shows tomorrow mornings low at 39 degrees.... If upper 30's in the city is cold, what do we call mid 20's? Teens? Nothing chaps my a** more than bullshit write-ups on news station websites. I never watch local news or weather. Drives me nuts. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted November 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Just realized that the last 10 days of the 12Z GFS are completely dry for my location. Beautiful day today, sunny and 45 in Mill Creek right now. Perfect. Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WS Snow Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Looks like I'll be in that all too familiar territory of telling friends (non weather followers) that "arctic air is coming" and then have them laugh at me when it falls apart again... Weather weenie to my core. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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