PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Brrrrr

[Phishy Wx]

Dang 12z Euro looks pretty chilly and only about 5 degrees or so off the bottom of the cold here back in December.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Dang 12z Euro looks pretty chilly and only about 5 degrees or so off the bottom of the cold here back in December.

Yeah, even what the GFS shows is pretty solid, I'm not excited yet, but mildly interested. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

The cold shown on the Euro has more of a classic backdoor look than December so hopefully it’s better at delivering some significant cold to Oregon and the basin 

Then again model runs were looking very cold for the whole region at this point in the lead up to late December 

[Deweydog]

Sun break!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

The cold shown on the Euro has more of a classic backdoor look than December so hopefully it’s better at delivering some significant cold to Oregon and the basin 

Then again model runs were looking very cold for the whole region at this point in the lead up to late December 

Looks like the EURO shows lows in the Willamette valley in the upper teens to low 20s by Wednesday morning next week. Would be the coldest of the season. I'd imagine we could push the mid-teens up here at face value if we get some snowcover going in. Having a sub-30 high like we did in late December is pretty hard to do even in late February at 1600'. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dang!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Deweydog]

Could be some old school two blanket nights coming up, as Jim Bosley would say.

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like I might be in for a pretty hairy drive back over Santiam on Monday.

[Phishy Wx]

34 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The cold shown on the Euro has more of a classic backdoor look than December so hopefully it’s better at delivering some significant cold to Oregon and the basin 

Then again model runs were looking very cold for the whole region at this point in the lead up to late December 

yep, been waiting on that this winter.  backdoor is where E WA scores

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well, I think it's a little of both and depends on the position. Bookkeeper is a nice office job with a desirable schedule that can be flexed to a hybrid office/work from home. Some other positions are much tougher to hire for, and we have applicants, but they are extremely picky, as in have very specific schedule demands. Workers have all the leverage right now in this market, because there are more available positions than people looking to fill them, I think the pandemic changed the dynamics in so many different ways, there is no easy answer to the situation. It's not all wages, a lot of it is what kind of flexibility does the job offer, can it be done from home, is it in health care. We already had a shortage of employees in healthcare, and the pandemic has compounded that, even though wages have risen dramatically in the health care field, so many are burned out or it just isn't worth the stress anymore. 

My wife just started a new job supporting cancer treatment/research and didn't find out it was remote until they extended the offer to her.  They wanted to weed out applicants who would be applying just because it was a remote work scenario.  She got a healthy bump in pay, which was pretty crazy because she is still working for the same medical organization, and her old wage fell within the pay range of the new job.  We are not complaining one bit!!  Meanwhile, they are having a heck of a time finding her replacement at the Hospice care center she was working at. 

So, my wife and I are working under the same roof again...our house.  The last time we worked under the same roof was at a pizza joint in Oregon 27-28 years ago where we met and started dating.

 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Euro is pretty respectable for this late in the season. Getting one decent cold shot would really help elevate the status of this winter. I’m sure some people on the forum will even get a little snow. 

[TacomaWaWx]

High temps in the mid 30s on two days and several lows in the mid to upper 20s here. 

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS in 40 minutes

[Cloud]

Not bad. Some late season kold blast. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just looked at the EPS. Absolutely satanic. -10.2C at 850mb for PDX. KOLDDD!

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just looked at the EPS. Absolutely satanic. -10.2C at 850mb for PDX. KOLDDD!

The last third of February is our new troughiest time of the year. 2017, 2018, and 2019 all had extensive troughs in the same window.

[Meatyorologist]

Euro is #kold and all but wants to build a ridge right on top of us at the end.. 

[Gradient Keeper]

That figures. EURO shows Cold and SNOW on the 22nd the day I am scheduled to be at my surgeon. LOL Oh well regardless I will continue to think Cold and SNOW!

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

That figures. EURO shows Cold and SNOW on the 22nd the day I am scheduled to be at my surgeon. LOL Oh well regardless I will continue to think Cold and SNOW!

Good luck on that surgery man!

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Good luck on that surgery man!

It's supposed to just be an evaluation, but I expect him to schedule it. Thanks.

[MWG]

[Jbolin]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows snow for Randy on Sunday and Monday... and for me and Andrew as well. 

F*** all of you

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON looks rock solid.

[Cascadia_Wx]

About as solid agreement as you could expect at this range on the EPS

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

The last third of February is our new troughiest time of the year. 2017, 2018, and 2019 all had extensive troughs in the same window.

Also unless this ends up being a major model collapse it’s looking pretty likely the February streak will live on this year. Six years in a row with at least some action 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is a move towards the EURO. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z is a move towards the EURO. 

was about to say the same thing

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Also unless this ends up being a major model collapse it’s looking pretty likely the February streak will live on this year. Six years in a row with at least some action 

Decent chance it ends up cooler than average in a lot of places, too.

[Meatyorologist]

At face value this should get us down to -1°F to -2°F on the month using 1991-2020. Pretty cool to have a below average DJF trifecta, though late month inversions hard carried January; if we had been just 1k ft higher, Jan would have been a much different story.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

At face value this should get us down to -1°F to -2°F on the month using 1991-2020. Pretty cool to have a below average DJF trifecta, though late month inversions hard carried January; if we had been just 1k ft higher, Jan would have been a much different story.

Tell me about it. We were about average in December, well above average in January, we'll see about February, I haven't really been paying attention to where we are in regards to normal. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hmmmm....

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tell me about it. We were about average in December, well above average in January, we'll see about February, I haven't really been paying attention to where we are in regards to normal. 

the n/s gradient rages on

[Meatyorologist]

Go on...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

the n/s gradient rages on

The elevation gradient also rages on. lol. Salem was exactly normal for January, but it was a very shallow inversion. 

[Christensen87]

FINALLY, some eye candy and something to track. 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The elevation gradient also rages on. lol. Salem was exactly normal for January, but it was a very shallow inversion. 

that genuinely surprises me

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh my my...

[Gradient Keeper]

Not bad. Winter's last kick to the balls