PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[snow_wizard]

I wouldn't be surprised to see some places have average mins run over 10 degrees below normal on average over the next 15 days given the recent models runs.  Going to be an exceptional run.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hasn't the Pacific been shutdown for almost two months already?

This one is different.  All of the blocking is further west.  This looks like cold continental on the whole.

[snow_wizard]

Interesting to note the ECMWF shows this being one of the favored areas for snow tonight.  Not holding my breath. but we already had rain at 36 earlier this morning.

[AlTahoe]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Back to real estate... Some unbelievable stats here about Spokane...

5 years ago 70% of employed residents could afford to buy a home. Now that number is 15%. 

https://www.sfgate.com/business/article/The-Next-Affordable-City-Is-Already-Too-Expensive-16931227.php

I have been looking at Spokane cause I could sell my house in Lake Tahoe and buy a very nice house there for cash and have no house payment. Millions of people in California are in the same situation and flooding into cheaper areas. Wild times ahead for rural areas. 

[Prairiedog]

1 hour ago, Kayla said:

Heavy snow just began here out ahead of the Arctic front. NWS upped my forecast to 8-14” of snowfall by tomorrow morning and is now even mentioning thundersnow this afternoon. I’ve yet to witness thundersnow in person so I’m pretty excited to see if we can get enough instability this afternoon!

I've been watching a live feed from the Boseman area.  Been fun watching the clouds fill in and the snow starting to fly.  The temps that will be plummeting is going to be what's pretty amazing. 

[Prairiedog]

Pretty defined front.  Boseman still on the warmer side but not for long. 

[SnowWillarrive]

29 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I have been looking at Spokane cause I could sell my house in Lake Tahoe and buy a very nice house there for cash and have no house payment. Millions of people in California are in the same situation and flooding into cheaper areas. Wild times ahead for rural areas. 

People from California are taking all the property. Hopefully they don’t bring their politics. 

[GHweatherChris]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

35 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I have been looking at Spokane cause I could sell my house in Lake Tahoe and buy a very nice house there for cash and have no house payment. Millions of people in California are in the same situation and flooding into cheaper areas. Wild times ahead for rural areas. 

Yeah, I've heard that California needs to build about 2.3 million housing units to overcome their housing deficit. Given the roadblocks to building in the Golden State, that is just not going to happen. I don't blame people from California for wanting to get out. Folks in Oregon and Washington aren't far behind, but at some point, if we don't do something to address the core issues, there won't be "affordable" places left, and where does it leave working families and future generations? 

Not to mention, if 85% of local residents are priced out of the market, as we are seeing in Spokane, there is going to be some pretty serious resentment. Politically we will likely see this manifest in crackdowns on foreign investors, ending tax breaks for people who own more than one home, and likely a crack down on Airbnb type properties. That is probably just the beginning too. 

[Kayla]

37 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

I've been watching a live feed from the Boseman area.  Been fun watching the clouds fill in and the snow starting to fly.  The temps that will be plummeting is going to be what's pretty amazing. 

Yeah the cold front still hasn't come through which is always fun to watch the temps plummet. Snowfall rates should also really pick up by late afternoon/evening. Not sure if this is the webcam you are referring to but this is a good one at I90 just north of Main Street.

https://canneryflats.com/webcam/

[TacomaWaWx]

Pretty nice day so far, 45 and partly cloudy. Looks like a pretty decent convergence zone up north. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

46 with some scattered showers here after a low of 39 looks like it’s going to get pretty cold the day after tomorrow and stay that way for a few days models really haven’t backed off much euro especially has been rock solid 

Glad to see a trend of the 12z runs turning cooler and wetter in the mid and long range too 

[Prairiedog]

33 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah the cold front still hasn't come through which is always fun to watch the temps plummet. Snowfall rates should also really pick up by late afternoon/evening. Not sure if this is the webcam you are referring to but this is a good one at I90 just north of Main Street.

https://canneryflats.com/webcam/

Yea that's the one.  My daughter lives in Laramie.  They're next.  -15f on the way.  Always windy there as well.  Wind never stops blowing there. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON still toying with Thursday.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z euro ensembles 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z euro ensembles 

ROCK solid, looks a lot like the GFS ensemble, also interesting a lot of MEMBERS show some precip with the Thursday weather maker. That early March period could be chilly and active. 

[TT-SEA]

42 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Pretty nice day so far, 45 and partly cloudy. Looks like a pretty decent convergence zone up north. 

C-zone has been north of my area as well.   Its been quite a nice day here too... at least so far.    I was just running errands in North Bend and the sun was shining and the roads were dry.

[TacomaWaWx]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

C-zone has been north of my area as well.   Its been quite a nice day here too... at least so far.    I was just running errands in North Bend and the sun was shining and the roads were dry.

Looks like it’s about to be over you soon. Looks like we’re starting to get a double c-zone with another one off Vancouver island. Lot of times that ends up sending the c zone Seattle southwards. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Looks like it’s about to be over you soon. Looks like we’re starting to get a double c-zone with another one off Vancouver island. Lot of times that ends up sending the c zone Seattle southwards. 

Yeah... the models have shown a c-zone from about SEA extending to the SE this evening which is farther south than normal.    Not sure what will happen here... the bulk of the c-zone in northern King County appears to be heading into the Cascades now and there are signs of new c-zone forming to the west of SEA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS making a bit of a move towards the ICON/EURO, but the shortwave still goes well to our east on Thursday.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... the models have shown a c-zone from about SEA extending to the SE this evening which is farther south than normal.    Not sure what will happen here... the bulk of the c-zone in northern King County appears to be heading into the Cascades now and there are signs of new c-zone forming to the west of SEA.

Every now and then this type of set up can make it this far south…one can hope anyways. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Next weekend’s low puts all its energy into BC like I said would happen. Let’s see if the trailing one can give us a score.

[LowerGarfield]

Rapidly accumulating graupel. Quite large as well.

[GHweatherChris]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty terrible GFS run in the 7-10 day period. 

[TT-SEA]

21 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Next weekend’s low puts all its energy into BC like I said would happen. Let’s see if the trailing one can give us a score.

Of course its just the 18Z GFS and its speculation and has not actually happened.   ECMWF was much wetter in that time frame.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty cold trough carves out over the PNW by the 4th. Seems like that feature is pretty locked in. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just noticed that EUG is only +0.4 and SLE is only +1.0 on the month coming into today. They will almost certainly both end February below average. Going to have to do some math to see if SLE can come in colder than January for a 5th year in a row. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like SLE will come in slightly warmer in February than they were in January, seems like they are set up for about a -1 to -1.5 departure for the month though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty cold trough carves out over the PNW by the 4th. Seems like that feature is pretty locked in. 

12 days out is locked in?

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like SLE will come in slightly warmer in February than they were in January, seems like they are set up for about a -1 to -1.5 departure for the month though. 

This’ll be the first year since 2017 February was warmer than January here too, but we should also finish below normal. +1.2 right now. 

[Dave]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just noticed that EUG is only +0.4 and SLE is only +1.0 on the month coming into today. They will almost certainly both end February below average. Going to have to do some math to see if SLE can come in colder than January for a 5th year in a row. 

Lots of inversions, fog, and chilly nights. I'd love to see the FEB departure just east of here at about 1500'. I imagine it would paint an opposite picture.

[TacomaWaWx]

Some decent cells developing over the central sound just north of here. 47/39 here today no rainfall yet. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Dave said:

Lots of inversions, fog, and chilly nights. I'd love to see the FEB departure just east of here at about 1500'. I imagine it would paint an opposite picture.

I'm well above average. Monthly mean is about 42.5F, which is about a +4 departure. We could end up around average if we over achieve the next few days. But relative to average December will probably end up our coldest month of the DJF period with a -0.3F departure. I have a feeling March could run a nice negative departure. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

This’ll be the first year since 2017 February was warmer than January here too, but we should also finish below normal. +1.2 right now. 

SLE since 2017

2017: -1.0

2018: -1.5

2019: -5.6

2020: -2.1

2021: -1.9

2022: -1.4 (Projected)

 

2016 was the last above average February and it was incredibly warm. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

1 hour ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Next weekend’s low puts all its energy into BC like I said would happen. Let’s see if the trailing one can give us a score.

 

40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Of course its just the 18Z GFS and its speculation and has not actually happened.   ECMWF was much wetter in that time frame.   

The Euro is wet at days 9-10. Next weekend is a bust. The GFS is a bust period. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12 days out is locked in?

Pretty much every ensemble is showing a dip around then. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty much every ensemble is showing a dip around then. 

Yes... I agree.

But nothing at 12 days out is ever really locked in.   

[T-Town]

Looking active to my north. We’ll see if it can slide this far south.