Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, indianajohn said: So is a significant ice event still in play for folks south of the city? The NAM has this. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 12z GFS at 10:1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 GFS a tick north in eastern Iowa from 6z, a little south still from 00z though. I keep riding the edge here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 The heavy snow band is going to be rather narrow. Concerns will be dry air to the N and sleet on the S that could drastically reduce totals from those modeled. Not to mention convective activity robbing moisture. This site out of all of them over years has performed best imo for actual snowfall- 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Different view Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Looking at temps in Eastern Iowa as the snow gets going on the GFS, temperatures are right around 20 degrees. Upper air temperatures are also well below 0, around -10C or lower. So snow ratios of greater than 10:1 seem likely up here provided there is good flake size and not strong winds. Winds look to be brisk 15-20mph, with gusts up to 30 or so, so fracturing of flakes could be an issue, but it's not anywhere near blizzard conditions. Kuchera ratios are showing starting around 12-13:1 and increasing to 17-19:1. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 GEFS tick north from 6z, but south from 00z 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 UKMET: 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, winterfreak said: UKMET: That's well north from 00z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 I'm still expecting nothing in Cedar Rapids. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 The RAP is now in range. It keeps the snow south of Iowa City. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 51 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z GFS at 10:1 I need the GFS to come south a county and i will be very comfortable. It’s drifting a little too far north for my comfort. like I been saying, the GFS has been much more reliable this winter than the other models and now the other models are coming in line with it! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 I realize that the most likely outcome for my backyard is 0", but I'm still gonna cling on to some optimism that the GFS is on to something here. And this is still in the time frame that models can and do shift 50+ miles yet. So we'll see. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 28 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: I need the GFS to come south a county and i will be very comfortable. It’s drifting a little too far north for my comfort. like I been saying, the GFS has been much more reliable this winter than the other models and now the other models are coming in line with it! I hope it comes south also. It looks like an ice storm for me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: Gary mentioned in his blog that the trend this year is for storms to weaken as they move toward KC. That would result in a weaker, more southern, path. GFS and NAM tend to overdo snowfall totals, so they seem to be discounting the potential weakening of the storm. So take your pick. Southern path but weaker. Northern path but stronger. I think the former would be better for KC and you. Maybe we can get something in the middle that still has high amounts, but stays far enough south for us. 12z Euro will be big and the RAP was interesting. I'm rooting for you guys to get the big snow, I just didn't want ice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z Euro will be big and the RAP was interesting. I'm rooting for you guys to get the big snow, I just didn't want ice. This is either a win for the city or you lol. Sucks that you are getting ice but hopefully the upstairs and cool off enough for you to get a few inches 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Euro is going to remain further south from the looks of things. The entire pattern and setup is further south than the GFS through 36 hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 No large scale change on the Euro. We are still worlds apart on placement between the GFS and Euro. The general idea on the storm is the same, but placement wise we are still a couple hundred miles apart. Which is pretty incredible considering we are 48-60 hours out from the height of the impacts of this storm. The Euro has the SLP running directly along the MO/AR border. Where the GFS has it running up through central IL. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 EURO is really drying out around here. Further south too… Not good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 12z Euro weaker and a touch south from the 6z with precip and more bullish with the cold air than the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Comparing the 00z Euro to the 12z Euro, there is a slight bump north. But it's very minor. Only those on the edge would be affected by it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 12z Euro...either the GFS will score the biggest coupe or the Euro will have prob the biggest fail around 48 hours or so... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Being a forecaster back in the day - I wouldn't wanna be one right now for KC and CHI town. Unreal spread this close. 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 Just now, Grizzcoat said: Being a forecaster back in the day - I wouldn't wanna be one right now for KC and CHI town. Unreal spread this close. LOL, just read Izzi's discussion from LOT this morning! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Tom said: 12z Euro...either the GFS will score the biggest coupe or the Euro will have prob the biggest fail inside 48 hours... Tom, its been my perception over the years that the euro has been more accurate in 4 to 6 day range. Ive heard the gfs has been upgraded significantly recently. It seems that nationwide the gfs has been outperforming the euro this winter. This event will be a big test. Your thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Being a forecaster back in the day - I wouldn't wanna be one right now for KC and CHI town. Unreal spread this close. Funny you mention that I was about to ask if your forecasting in KC what do you do? It was ranked as the hardest place to forecast for. I can't believe the Euro and GFS are this far apart inside 48hrs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 5 hours ago, Stacsh said: Euro still south. Been so steady. Gonna win this one. Gfs trending south of me now as well. I’m glad. Don’t want a snow storm. Over amped gfs and nam always wrong here. You're not in the clear just yet. But I'm certain this will find a way to be 90% liquid with a little back-side fluff over here. 4 hours ago, tStacsh said: started south trend last run. I know it's minor, but still there. No doubt tho why. Looks like a 14mb drop in strength of the SLP at that point in time.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said: Tom, its been my perception over the years that the euro has been more accurate in 4 to 6 day range. Ive heard the gfs has been upgraded significantly recently. It seems that nationwide the gfs has been outperforming the euro this winter. This event will be a big test. Your thoughts? Agree, it handled the very complex GHD-3 storm in the Day 5+ range quite well while the Euro was way south and east. Iirc, the EPS began to sniff out the heavy swatch of snow at Day 4-5. I remember there were many suppressed/weak runs from the Euro/Ukie/GGEM. In the end, the GEFS were steadfast on the heavier snow for days but had some final adjustments at 24 hours or so. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: Funny you mention that I was about to ask if your forecasting in KC what do you do? It was ranked as the hardest place to forecast for. I can't believe the Euro and GFS are this far apart inside 48hrs. The #1 thing you learn about forecasting -- no matter your bias- is most times it's not your own back yard in whom your clients are. That's tough to do- when you don't actually live (experienced the weather) in said location. No bias. TBH- I have no clue right now for CHI and esp KC area. It's so tight. And forecasters get the blame for this-- but come on--. If I had to forecast - I think the Northward trend is a bit overdone. KC area will do decent but that darn sleet is impossible to predict and it get's added in on most maps. Upper air will be crucial and ground temps rather warm, I think CHI area does better , but I really have no clue. Guidance is really not that --- just gonna come down to radar and temps aloft at this juncture. 3 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wheezer Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 The fact know one(NOAA) has issued any kind of advisory is very telling 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 31 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z Euro...either the GFS will score the biggest coupe or the Euro will have prob the biggest fail around 48 hours or so... Which one are you leaning (not hoping) towards? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, BrianJK said: Which one are you leaning (not hoping) towards? GEFS...and soon to monitor the RAP/NAM more so once we get inside 36-48 hours... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Tom said: GEFS...and soon to monitor the RAP/NAM more so once we get inside 36-48 hours... @Tom what you thinking for NWI? I’m thinking we are right on that line of either heavy snow or possible dangerous ice event.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, indianajohn said: @Tom what you thinking for NWI? I’m thinking we are right on that line of either heavy snow or possible dangerous ice event.. Nail biter for sure...it'll depend on how strong the SLP ends up becoming to see how far north the warm nose goes... Meantime, SREF Plumes....5.75" KC....6.76" DVN....7" MKE....6.6" ORD...7" GRR... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 23 minutes ago, BrianJK said: Which one are you leaning (not hoping) towards? 18 minutes ago, Tom said: GEFS...and soon to monitor the RAP/NAM more so once we get inside 36-48 hours... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jarod Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 I would like 8+ inches or nothing. Been waiting for ice to melt off the roads so I can do some inline skating, but the best I will get is to skate tomorrow in the rain. Need a fair bit more snow for some decent snowshoeing. 18z HRRR starting to come in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 12z EPS a bit weaker and SE this run up this way... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 As if things weren't complicated enough the Euro Control takes a sizable jump SE also weaker from 6z. Mean 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 15, 2022 Report Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z EPS a bit weaker and SE this run up this way... Yep. Think that will be there theme from this point forward Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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