2/16 - 2/18 Plains/GL's Cutter

[Tom]

Without further ado, it's prob a good idea to start a storm thread this far out to keep this forum focused on the weather!  Whaddya say?  Let's discuss...

At the Day 7-8 range, the models are in remarkable agreement that a strong trough digs deep into the 4 corners region and ejects out into the TX Panhandle region.  Where it tracks from there will depend on how strong the blocking is up north.  Hard cutter or not?  Some peeps on here will see some snow while others are going to get soaked or deal with a mix scenario.  It does appear that a very wet, mostly warm, system is on tap with copious GOM moisture.  Teleconnections support a track farther NW than the previous storm system we tracked during GHD.

0z GEFS...

 

 

 

0z Euro...

 

 

 

0z GGEM...

 

0z GFS...

 

 

[Stacsh]

Interesting set up.  Seems like a Rainer right now here.  Another complicated set up though.  Plenty of wiggle room and shifts to come.  

[Madtown]

In the game this far north? Or do I end up with Rain Not sure there's anything stopping this from going way NW

[gosaints]

11 minutes ago, Madtown said:

In the game this far north? Or do I end up with Rain Not sure there's anything stopping this from going way NW

You are for sure in the game.  This is a thread the needle event to the south with the upcoming pattern 

[Madtown]

3 minutes ago, gosaints said:

You are for sure in the game.  This is a thread the needle event to the south with the upcoming pattern 

live in the northwoods now not Madison 

[Grizzcoat]

6 minutes ago, gosaints said:

You are for sure in the game.  This is a thread the needle event to the south with the upcoming pattern 

agree ^. The pattern dictates something more like an FSD to DLH special rather than 150 miles to the SE.  The last 3 runs of the GFS have been shifting to the NW....

[james1976]

6z GFS a touch north from 0z. Lot of moisture. Looks like a heavy wet snow band for whoever gets lucky.

[gosaints]

26 minutes ago, Madtown said:

live in the northwoods now not Madison 

Ya I think you are in the game.  Where are you up there.  We have a place on near clam lake on namakagon.

[CentralNebWeather]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

Without further ado, it's prob a good idea to start a storm thread this far out to keep this forum focused on the weather!  Whaddya say?  Let's discuss...

At the Day 7-8 range, the models are in remarkable agreement that a strong trough digs deep into the 4 corners region and ejects out into the TX Panhandle region.  Where it tracks from there will depend on how strong the blocking is up north.  Hard cutter or not?  Some peeps on here will see some snow while others are going to get soaked or deal with a mix scenario.  It does appear that a very wet, mostly warm, system is on tap with copious GOM moisture.  Teleconnections support a track farther NW than the previous storm system we tracked during GHD.

0z GEFS...

 

 

 

0z Euro...

 

 

 

0z GGEM...

 

0z GFS...

 

 

Really don't care at this point about the moisture type.  We need this system badly in some form.  0z Euro shifted south from the 12Z.  Lots of time to track.  Thanks for sharing the maps.

[Madtown]

27 minutes ago, gosaints said:

Ya I think you are in the game.  Where are you up there.  We have a place on near clam lake on namakagon.

manitowish waters

[WinterSquall23]

Looks like another one of these for detroit.

[james1976]

GFS a touch back south this run 

[Tom]

12z GFS...

 

Loads of precip...

 

 

 

 

 

[tStacsh]

Could be some Ice with this one.  

[Tom]

Man, there are some juiced up GEFS members....eerily similar to GHD storm...same track, same setup...fascinating stuff...the only difference I see right now is more rain on the front end before the switch over

 

 

[East Dubzz]

Sweet, something to at least look at on the models. 

[Hawkeye]

The Canadian has a stronger northern stream again, so the storm is suppressed.

[Grizzcoat]

CMC is out to lunch. This thing will end up being well N and W of what most guidance shows now. Snow cover gone or will gone. Serious Gulf moisture and WAA and I'am not impressed with H pressure to the N in CAN. Think it's overdone.

[bud2380]

16" of snow in 6 hours.... 

 

[Hawkeye]

The op Euro is going back south again, too.  A bunch of nice energy and deep moisture tries to lift into the region, but the dang northern stream dives southeast and squashes the whole thing.

[snowstorm83]

Euro is south. I guess I wouldn't want to be in the bullseye at this range considering how well that's gone this winter. 

[Tom]

Today's 12z Euro run is like dejavu all over again...almost identical situation whereby there are 2 troughs interacting with each other in the SW as the 2nd trough diving SE out of the N Rockies acts as the "kicker" of the main energy in the 4 corners region.

 

[MIKEKC]

20 minutes ago, Tom said:

Today's 12z Euro run is like dejavu all over again...almost identical situation whereby there are 2 troughs interacting with each other in the SW as the 2nd trough diving SE out of the N Rockies acts as the "kicker" of the main energy in the 4 corners region.

 

Tom, I would like to see the source of cold air become a bit stronger. The FEB. 2nd-4th monster in the nation's midsection had widespread cold air. Temps look marginal for widespread snow with this storm.  We'll see how that trends.

[bud2380]

Euro Control

 

[Grizzcoat]

At 174 hours- its not going to be 16F at MCI at noon in mid/late JAN " edit FEB" without snow on the ground and hardly any within 200 miles+ to the N. Even through 12Z guidance showed a shift to the S and E, this thing is running N and Way N imo.  We are talking 174 hours. A joke that we (including myslef) are even talking about this yet -- just goes to show how slow the winter has been for snow.

[Clinton]

12z Euro Mean a little north of the GFS with snow fall.  Precip amounts awesome for this time of year.

[MIKEKC]

32 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

But the strength of the cold air last time pushed the snow mostly south and east of KC.  I was actually going to say that the weakness of this cold push (relative to the last one) might actually benefit KC this time.  Having said, I agree that it will make rain/ice/sleet more of a risk.  As I've said many times, things have to line up just right for KC to get snow.  We're always on the line.

Yes it did. I don't what it that strong! I just don't want it to be as marginal as the data is showing right now. It looked a bit better on the 12z data. 

[tStacsh]

Not even paying attention to this storm.  Hoping for a warmer rain.  Euro has WMI in the bullseye right, so likely won't get anything.  

[tStacsh]

Of course new GFS would give my biggest snowstorm in years...

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Of course new GFS would give my biggest snowstorm in years...

This be the range when the maps models tease south trend, just to sucker us in SMI (even Tom in Chicago) into thinking we have a shot at some kind of repeat of GHD-3. With my whopping 5.6" hit, I'm pleasantly spared the hoping for a repeat of said Big Dog storm. I am with Grizz, in the end this will be an Iowa or NW of there hitter. Prolly lost half our snow cover with this warm-up, now we get a dusting in the morning, just to be melted slop by the pm. Then we deep freeze. A little too much roller-coaster imo. I'd be ok with it, if only it would align in a way that gave us good snows like 07-08.  

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, Ferndale_man said:

Looks like another one of these for detroit.

Haha, yeah. We got our 1 week of snow covered ground. That's winter '21-22 apparently. 

[gimmesnow]

GFS has rain for this storm for me, then the big snow goes to the south. I really do just give up at this point.

This winter really is hopeless, what a huge disappointment. Never even took my snowmobile off my trailer, the way this looks I'm not even going to take it off, except so I can put some drywall and lumber on it to do some house work. Two days of the trails being open this year in SE Wisconsin.

[james1976]

GFS dumps a foot from sw to central and eastern IA and into WI

[Hawkeye]

Tonight's Euro looks like the GFS, laying down a swath of heavy snow through eastern Iowa.  The Canadian is suppressed.  It's a race between the strong energy ejecting from the sw US and the energy diving southeast out of Canada.

[Tom]

Just based on trends, this storm isn't cutting NW even though there is no snow on OTG.  Similar storm track as the GHD storm should produce similar results.  The Upper MW HP is growing stronger per the GEFS...-EPO is the driving force...

 

0z Euro start to baby step towards the GFS/GEFS...which is leading the pack in the post Day 5 range...prolific moisture available for FEB standards...

 

 

[MKEstorm]

Lots of moisture associated with this storm. Also, appears to be a classic Panhandle Hook type system. Something we haven't seen in quite some time.

[Tom]

1 minute ago, MKEstorm said:

Lots of moisture associated with this storm. Also, appears to be a classic Panhandle Hook type system. Something we haven't seen in quite some time.

This is exactly the type of storm set up we had in the Fall but never managed to really align during the heart of winter.  Teleconnections failed us many times this winter when systems ejected out of the SW.  I'm sure now as we near Spring,  nature will show up with early Spring winter storms... 

[Tom]

0z EPS...

 

 

[Tom]

0z EPS members...

 

 

[GDR]