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2/16 - 2/18 Plains/GL's Cutter


Tom
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Without further ado, it's prob a good idea to start a storm thread this far out to keep this forum focused on the weather!  Whaddya say?  Let's discuss...

At the Day 7-8 range, the models are in remarkable agreement that a strong trough digs deep into the 4 corners region and ejects out into the TX Panhandle region.  Where it tracks from there will depend on how strong the blocking is up north.  Hard cutter or not?  Some peeps on here will see some snow while others are going to get soaked or deal with a mix scenario.  It does appear that a very wet, mostly warm, system is on tap with copious GOM moisture.  Teleconnections support a track farther NW than the previous storm system we tracked during GHD.

0z GEFS...

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0z Euro...

 

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0z GGEM...

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0z GFS...

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11 minutes ago, Madtown said:

In the game this far north? Or do I end up with Rain😀 Not sure there's anything stopping this from going way NW

You are for sure in the game.  This is a thread the needle event to the south with the upcoming pattern 

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6 minutes ago, gosaints said:

You are for sure in the game.  This is a thread the needle event to the south with the upcoming pattern 

agree ^. The pattern dictates something more like an FSD to DLH special rather than 150 miles to the SE.  The last 3 runs of the GFS have been shifting to the NW....

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

Without further ado, it's prob a good idea to start a storm thread this far out to keep this forum focused on the weather!  Whaddya say?  Let's discuss...

At the Day 7-8 range, the models are in remarkable agreement that a strong trough digs deep into the 4 corners region and ejects out into the TX Panhandle region.  Where it tracks from there will depend on how strong the blocking is up north.  Hard cutter or not?  Some peeps on here will see some snow while others are going to get soaked or deal with a mix scenario.  It does appear that a very wet, mostly warm, system is on tap with copious GOM moisture.  Teleconnections support a track farther NW than the previous storm system we tracked during GHD.

0z GEFS...

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0z Euro...

 

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0z GGEM...

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0z GFS...

snku_acc.us_c.png

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Really don't care at this point about the moisture type.  We need this system badly in some form.  0z Euro shifted south from the 12Z.  Lots of time to track.  Thanks for sharing the maps.

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Man, there are some juiced up GEFS members....eerily similar to GHD storm...same track, same setup...fascinating stuff...the only difference I see right now is more rain on the front end before the switch over

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The Canadian has a stronger northern stream again, so the storm is suppressed.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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CMC is out to lunch. This thing will end up being well N and W of what most guidance shows now. Snow cover gone or will gone. Serious Gulf moisture and WAA and I'am not impressed with H pressure to the N in CAN. Think it's overdone.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The op Euro is going back south again, too.  A bunch of nice energy and deep moisture tries to lift into the region, but the dang northern stream dives southeast and squashes the whole thing.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Today's 12z Euro run is like dejavu all over again...almost identical situation whereby there are 2 troughs interacting with each other in the SW as the 2nd trough diving SE out of the N Rockies acts as the "kicker" of the main energy in the 4 corners region.

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20 minutes ago, Tom said:

Today's 12z Euro run is like dejavu all over again...almost identical situation whereby there are 2 troughs interacting with each other in the SW as the 2nd trough diving SE out of the N Rockies acts as the "kicker" of the main energy in the 4 corners region.

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Tom, I would like to see the source of cold air become a bit stronger. The FEB. 2nd-4th monster in the nation's midsection had widespread cold air. Temps look marginal for widespread snow with this storm.  We'll see how that trends.

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6 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Tom, I would like to see the source of cold air become a bit stronger. The FEB. 2nd-4th monster in the nation's midsection had widespread cold air. Temps look marginal for widespread snow with this storm.  We'll see how that trends.

But the strength of the cold air last time pushed the snow mostly south and east of KC.  I was actually going to say that the weakness of this cold push (relative to the last one) might actually benefit KC this time.  Having said, I agree that it will make rain/ice/sleet more of a risk.  As I've said many times, things have to line up just right for KC to get snow.  We're always on the line.

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At 174 hours- its not going to be 16F at MCI at noon in mid/late JAN " edit FEB" without snow on the ground and hardly any within 200 miles+ to the N. Even through 12Z guidance showed a shift to the S and E, this thing is running N and Way N imo.  We are talking 174 hours. A joke that we (including myslef) are even talking about this yet -- just goes to show how slow the winter has been for snow.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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32 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

But the strength of the cold air last time pushed the snow mostly south and east of KC.  I was actually going to say that the weakness of this cold push (relative to the last one) might actually benefit KC this time.  Having said, I agree that it will make rain/ice/sleet more of a risk.  As I've said many times, things have to line up just right for KC to get snow.  We're always on the line.

Yes it did. I don't what it that strong! I just don't want it to be as marginal as the data is showing right now. It looked a bit better on the 12z data. 

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2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Of course new GFS would give my biggest snowstorm in years...

This be the range when the maps models tease south trend, just to sucker us in SMI (even Tom in Chicago) into thinking we have a shot at some kind of repeat of GHD-3. With my whopping 5.6" hit, I'm pleasantly spared the hoping for a repeat of said Big Dog storm. I am with Grizz, in the end this will be an Iowa or NW of there hitter. Prolly lost half our snow cover with this warm-up, now we get a dusting in the morning, just to be melted slop by the pm. Then we deep freeze. A little too much roller-coaster imo. I'd be ok with it, if only it would align in a way that gave us good snows like 07-08.  

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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10 hours ago, Ferndale_man said:

Looks like another one of these for detroit.

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Haha, yeah. We got our 1 week of snow covered ground. That's winter '21-22 apparently. 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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GFS has rain for this storm for me, then the big snow goes to the south. I really do just give up at this point.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

This winter really is hopeless, what a huge disappointment. Never even took my snowmobile off my trailer, the way this looks I'm not even going to take it off, except so I can put some drywall and lumber on it to do some house work. Two days of the trails being open this year in SE Wisconsin.

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Tonight's Euro looks like the GFS, laying down a swath of heavy snow through eastern Iowa.  The Canadian is suppressed.  It's a race between the strong energy ejecting from the sw US and the energy diving southeast out of Canada.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just based on trends, this storm isn't cutting NW even though there is no snow on OTG.  Similar storm track as the GHD storm should produce similar results.  The Upper MW HP is growing stronger per the GEFS...-EPO is the driving force...

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0z Euro start to baby step towards the GFS/GEFS...which is leading the pack in the post Day 5 range...prolific moisture available for FEB standards...

 

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1 minute ago, MKEstorm said:

Lots of moisture associated with this storm. Also, appears to be a classic Panhandle Hook type system. Something we haven't seen in quite some time.

This is exactly the type of storm set up we had in the Fall but never managed to really align during the heart of winter.  Teleconnections failed us many times this winter when systems ejected out of the SW.  I'm sure now as we near Spring,  nature will show up with early Spring winter storms... 

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Just based on trends, this storm isn't cutting NW even though there is no snow on OTG.  Similar storm track as the GHD storm should produce similar results.  The Upper MW HP is growing stronger per the GEFS...-EPO is the driving force...

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0z Euro start to baby step towards the GFS/GEFS...which is leading the pack in the post Day 5 range...prolific moisture available for FEB standards...

 

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JB wrote yesterday about how the AO isn't the beast in driving the weather pattern that is use to be, due to a warmer planet and warmer oceans.  He said the EPO is a bigger player now.  I guess this will kinda put that to the test the 0z GEFS looks like the GHD storm, I hope it continues to get colder!

1645196400-gT1GNNQ7YD4.png

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Still a pretty wicked spread on ensembles.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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I still would not rule a N shift out - and not just a 25-50 mile one. I mean significant.  Flowers yday did a video basically explaining tips and tricks he uses at long range and seeing if said model is making sense with itself. He was using the nose of the dry air at 500mb that most times is just S of the surface low and was kind of hinting (at least the way I took it) that Southward trends may be the outliers. Since 06Z and 18Z don't use upper air (at least updated soundings), it's typical for them to do what they are doing and if we don't see a South tick with todays 12Z runs (an adjustment from 06Z) I would bet this thing is trending hard to the N. Hope I'am wrong, but at least I laid a few reasons why I think so.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Just like the previous 2 cycles there will be a nasty severe weather component to this system.  The SPC in day 7 seems to be targeting the same areas that were hit back in Dec with deadly tornadoes.  I have no idea what type of precip I will get but this will be a fascinating storm.

Day 6

day6prob.gif

 Day 7day7prob.gif

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32 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Is it wrong that I'm wishing for this to cut hard north and just give me rain?  I love snowstorms as much as anyone here, but I've got spring fever.  

After this storm, I got my eyes set on warm weather also…I feel ya!

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Just now, Tom said:

After this storm, I got my eyes set on warm weather also…I feel ya!

Normally I'd be giddy about a potential snowstorm.  But it's been cold and not a fun winter.  My twin boys just turned 3 and we have a huge backyard and they got a bunch of new toys to play with outside!  

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