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2/16 - 2/18 Plains/GL's Cutter


Tom
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22 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

I honestly don't think so.  I'm expecting little, if anything, with this one.  Even with it lining up to be a more southern forum scenario, it looks to be getting squished.  That has been very common this year.  Things have gotten squished here in the plains, and pushed off to the east where they reform.  

Maybe this joker will end up being wrong.  But I'm still very skeptical.  

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18 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I told everyone to keep the faith in the models! Just need this to nudge NW another 45-50 miles and I’ll be a happy person 😊

The models listen to you...make that NW nudge happen! 😁

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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Euro and CMC both brought their snow shields north and west. Ukie shifted slightly southeast, but is still northwest of those two. Baby steps in the right direction.

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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13 hours ago, Tom said:

Good to see the UKIE not as suppressed as previous runs...

image.png

 

 

Geeze, wish this could be an all snow event...

qpf_acc.us_mw.png 

Haha. Models immediately make my call for The Mitt look $$

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Looks like a noisy wet Wednesday.   
Hoping for drenching long rain.  
We really need it.  
 

 

EE6407F4-8B91-4BCB-8EDA-1BFA57179CFD.webp

  • Storm 3

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro Control

1645164000-dtTN6e5tyfI.png

Mean

1645164000-hKbGHs5lisU.png

Can't help but think that none of these maps mean anything at this range. After posting (saving) days and days of maps for GHD-3, the only ones that began to be accurate were within the final 36 hours. The Euro at h36 already had taken this area down into single digits and wasn't far off the "net results" for SMI. The SR models continued that "less snow theme" at which point I was also watching us ROAST and adding up the mid-range model fail in my head so I didn't keep any of those SR snowfall maps that were published. 

36 hr Euro (which imho should've had KDTX backing down on their totals. Why they stuck with 12-14" is beyond me. That's a GRR thing to do.)

 

 

20220201 18z Euro 36 SN-KCH.png

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Can't help but think that none of these maps mean anything at this range. After posting (saving) days and days of maps for GHD-3, the only ones that began to be accurate were within the final 36 hours. The Euro at h36 already had taken this area down into single digits and wasn't far off the "net results" for SMI. The SR models continued that "less snow theme" at which point I was also watching us ROAST and adding up the mid-range model fail in my head so I didn't keep any of those SR snowfall maps that were published. 

36 hr Euro (which imho should've had KDTX backing down on their totals. Why they stuck with 12-14" is beyond me. That's a GRR thing to do.)

 

 

20220201 18z Euro 36 SN-KCH.png

My office made the same mistake. The 10:1 maps almost verified for the GHD-3 storm at this range down my way the Kuchera maps were way over done. Not sure why models over due QPF in the winter and under sell in the summer.

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The Kuchera maps are even more ridiculous.

Not to mention GFS is on an island.  4 days out I’m in the 1” to 22” range.   Not too confident lol.  I’m expecting nothing.  More excited for the rain and 40’s ahead of it to clear my driveway finally of ice.   

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

0z GEFS trending further NW, many juiced members.

1645174800-jO72I36i7UU.png

1645142400-kPMbCTFaWGk.png

 

My lord, that is VERY far Northwest.  This would be best case scenario for my back yard. Unfortunately I remain very skeptical. The maps have looked almost exactly like this for my location 4 different times, only to get a measly 3 inch slop.  The Canadian is on a completely different planet..it's comical how bad the models have been this year.  By tomorrow we will be 3 days out, you would think they'd get a clue that close to a storm right?? What a joke

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2 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said:

My lord, that is VERY far Northwest.  This would be best case scenario for my back yard. Unfortunately I remain very skeptical. The maps have looked almost exactly like this for my location 4 different times, only to get a measly 3 inch slop.  The Canadian is on a completely different planet..it's comical how bad the models have been this year.  By tomorrow we will be 3 days out, you would think they'd get a clue that close to a storm right?? What a joke

It's looking like my initial fear of this missing me to the north may happen, the GFS now has me on the southern edge of the heavy snow.  KC looks to be in a great spot. 

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0z GEFS trending NW at this time compared to GHD-3 which had been trending weaker/SE if I recall...more juiced and amped??  Could be the 1st TX Panhandle Hook of the season...well, sorta...today's 12z runs will be interesting as the main energy will be hitting the PAC NW coast.  I still think there will be shifts until the trough slides down into Cali later tomorrow.

1.gif

4.gif

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34 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

The EURO and CMC are going to win this I think. Neither one of them are budging. Carbon copy of last storm. If so(likely), just bring on big warmth and spring.

I expect the GFS to start caving soon, maybe by this afternoon, or tonight.  At least with the second wave LP.  the other models may tick NW, but not much and not as strong as the GFS.  I'd be really surprised if the GFS solution happens.  Basically based off EVERY other model being different.  

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I can't believe it's the middle of February and I'm hoping this storm goes south and keeps rain away. Hopefully it goes so south it doesn't even rain in portage so Cascade mountain is safe Wednesday. What a sad winter it keeps doing this, there's not even ski hills the that far south, or snowmobile trails, and they keep getting it.

 

I just know upper 40s with that amount of rain is going to devastate the base at my local resort. A couple more of these before February is over and I'll be done with my snowboard season two weeks early.

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6 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

I can't believe it's the middle of February and I'm hoping this storm goes south and keeps rain away. Hopefully it goes so south it doesn't even rain in portage so Cascade mountain is safe Wednesday. What a sad winter it keeps doing this, there's not even ski hills the that far south, or snowmobile trails, and they keep getting it.

 

I just know upper 40s with that amount of rain is going to devastate the base at my local resort. A couple more of these before February is over and I'll be done with my snowboard season two weeks early.

If the long range GFS is to be believe, Winter would be temporarily over (snowpack) in the lower lakes, regardless of what this storm does.  

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12 hours ago, Clinton said:

My office made the same mistake. The 10:1 maps almost verified for the GHD-3 storm at this range down my way the Kuchera maps were way over done. Not sure why models over due QPF in the winter and under sell in the summer.

But Kuchera can be helpful for situations like I had here. Hours of white rain and 4:1 slop that was melting more than stacking. I believe that Euro KCH map I posted was catching onto that. We didn't lack for total qpf, but a lot less of it was in the form of legit snow flakes.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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