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2/16 - 2/18 Plains/GL's Cutter

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Jayhawker85
Jayhawker85

Heavy band is now over Lawrence and it’s coming down pretty good! Lots of wind blowing bringing down visibility.  definitely enjoying this snow day!

Clinton
Clinton

Close call but the dry slot will miss me to the south by about 10 miles.

mlgamer
mlgamer

We have a poor man's blizzard underway here...not epic, but still not bad. Have a solid 2+" now. (Hope everyone can view this)     20220217_084212.mp4

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

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The heavy snow band is going to be rather narrow. Concerns will be dry air to the N and sleet on the S that could drastically reduce totals from those modeled. Not to mention convective activity robbing moisture.  This site out of all of them over years has performed best imo for actual snowfall-

 

 

Screenshot 2022-02-15 at 10-02-41 GFS Total Surface Snowfall -- Instant Weather Maps.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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bud2380 Veteran

bud2380

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Looking at temps in Eastern Iowa as the snow gets going on the GFS, temperatures are right around 20 degrees.  Upper air temperatures are also well below 0, around -10C or lower.  So snow ratios of greater than 10:1 seem likely up here provided there is good flake size and not strong winds.  Winds look to be brisk 15-20mph, with gusts up to 30 or so, so fracturing of flakes could be an issue, but it's not anywhere near blizzard conditions.  Kuchera ratios are showing starting around 12-13:1 and increasing to 17-19:1.  

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Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

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28 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I need the GFS to come south a county and i will be very comfortable. It’s drifting a little too far north for my comfort.

 

like I been saying, the GFS has been much more reliable this winter than the other models and now the other models are coming in line with it!

I hope it comes south also. It looks like an ice storm for me.

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Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

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7 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Gary mentioned in his blog that the trend this year is for storms to weaken as they move toward KC.  That would result in a weaker, more southern, path.  GFS and NAM tend to overdo snowfall totals, so they seem to be discounting the potential weakening of the storm.  So take your pick.  Southern path but weaker.  Northern path but stronger.  I think the former would be better for KC and you.  Maybe we can get something in the middle that still has high amounts, but stays far enough south for us.

12z Euro will be big and the RAP was interesting.  I'm rooting for you guys to get the big snow, I just didn't want ice.

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bud2380 Veteran

bud2380

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No large scale change on the Euro.  We are still worlds apart on placement between the GFS and Euro.  The general idea on the storm is the same, but placement wise we are still a couple hundred miles apart.  Which is pretty incredible considering we are 48-60 hours out from the height of the impacts of this storm.  

 

The Euro has the SLP running directly along the MO/AR border.  Where the GFS has it running up through central IL.  

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OttumwaSnomow Mentor

OttumwaSnomow

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1 minute ago, Tom said:

12z Euro...either the GFS will score the biggest coupe or the Euro will have prob the biggest fail inside 48 hours...

1.png

Tom,  its been my perception  over the years that the euro has been more accurate  in 4 to 6 day range.   Ive heard the gfs has been upgraded  significantly  recently.  It seems that nationwide the gfs has been outperforming  the euro this winter. This event will be a big test. Your thoughts?

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Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

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2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Being a forecaster back in the day - I wouldn't wanna be one right now for KC and CHI town. Unreal spread this close.

Funny you mention that I was about to ask if your forecasting in KC what do you do?  It was ranked as the hardest place to forecast for.  I can't believe the Euro and GFS are this far apart inside 48hrs.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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5 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Euro still south.  Been so steady.  Gonna win this one. Gfs trending south of me now as well.   I’m glad.  Don’t want a snow storm.   Over amped gfs and nam always wrong here.  

You're not in the clear just yet. But I'm certain this will find a way to be 90% liquid with a little back-side fluff over here.

4 hours ago, tStacsh said:

started south trend last run.  I know it's minor, but still there.  

GFS gif.gif

No doubt tho why. Looks like a 14mb drop in strength of the SLP at that point in time..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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5 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Tom,  its been my perception  over the years that the euro has been more accurate  in 4 to 6 day range.   Ive heard the gfs has been upgraded  significantly  recently.  It seems that nationwide the gfs has been outperforming  the euro this winter. This event will be a big test. Your thoughts?

Agree, it handled the very complex GHD-3 storm in the Day 5+ range quite well while the Euro was way south and east.  Iirc, the EPS began to sniff out the heavy swatch of snow at Day 4-5.  I remember there were many suppressed/weak runs from the Euro/Ukie/GGEM.  In the end, the GEFS were steadfast on the heavier snow for days but had some final adjustments at 24 hours or so.

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

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2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Funny you mention that I was about to ask if your forecasting in KC what do you do?  It was ranked as the hardest place to forecast for.  I can't believe the Euro and GFS are this far apart inside 48hrs.

The #1 thing you learn about forecasting -- no matter your bias- is most times it's not your own back yard in whom your clients are. That's tough to do- when you don't actually live (experienced the weather) in said location. No bias. TBH- I have no clue right now for CHI and esp KC area. It's so tight. And forecasters get the blame for this-- but come on--.

If I had to forecast - I think the Northward trend is a bit overdone. KC area  will do decent but that darn sleet is impossible to predict and it get's added in on most maps. Upper air will be crucial and ground temps rather warm, I think CHI area does better , but I really have no clue. Guidance is really not that --- just gonna come down to radar and temps aloft at this juncture.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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1 minute ago, indianajohn said:

@Tom what you thinking for NWI? I’m thinking we are right on that line of either heavy snow or possible dangerous ice event.. 

Nail biter for sure...it'll depend on how strong the SLP ends up becoming to see how far north the warm nose goes...

Meantime, SREF Plumes....5.75" KC....6.76" DVN....7" MKE....6.6" ORD...7" GRR...

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Jarod Contributor

Jarod

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I would like 8+ inches or nothing. Been waiting for ice to melt off the roads so I can do some inline skating, but the best I will get is to skate tomorrow in the rain. Need a fair bit more snow for some decent snowshoeing. 18z HRRR starting to come in.

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