Bring model-wide agreement within 150 hours and I'm on board. Just been burned too many times to care quite yet. Great trends though. Everything we want to see thus far. I have a feeling we'll get there this time. Much different vibe than December.

Slowly working our way up to those holy shitt January 1950 repeat eye candy model runs we all know probably aren't going to verify but the models will probably dangle in our faces anyway until about 5-6 days out to get our expectations up right before the inevitable mid-range moderation.

I know your feels are important, but that's just not supported by the data, which shows that the AIFS outperforms every traditional model in the long range. Fred may have some valid points regarding seasonal transitions, monsoon wackiness, etc, but for a situation like this at this time of year, I don't really think there's much to debate here. The data is clear. The Euro also flops around in the day 10 period too, so I don't really get what your point is. Both obviously are going to be wrong more often than they are right at that range. But the AIFS is clearly wrong a pretty significant amount less.

Underrated Spielberg.

Was just thinking the same thing. My model riding brain hasn't accepted yet that there is anything nearly as important as the GFS and ECMWF, but the fact is that it is MORE IMPORTANT! Will be nice to never go more than 2 hours without model riding, although I don't think that is good for my heart