My thoughts so far. This storm looks HIGHLY unusual, leading to VERY HIGH forecast uncertainty -- We could be looking at a major windstorm (~20% chance In my opinion) but will more likely see either a much more minor windstorm (~40% chance) or basically no windstorm at all (~40% chance.) This uncertainty is due to two main factors: 1 -- The storm looks to be extremely tightly packed which means it would have a very small physical window of damaging winds just South and East of the center and very little wind outside of there. This means small differences in storm track (as little as 25-50 miles) will have a huge impact on wind speeds and right now models still disagree by nearly 200 miles. 2 -- This storm will take an extremely unusual track coming up from almost due South from Oregon through Puget Sound. Usually our storms come in from the West or Southwest, allowing the storm to strengthen and develop over the ocean on the way in but also causing the Olympic Mountains to our West to block the strongest winds from reaching the Puget Sound area. With a track from the South, the storm may have a harder time developing and strengthening, but if it does the strongest winds may have an easier time flowing right through unblocked. Because of this, there is both very high BUST and BOOM potential -- If the storm tracks further East (like today's Euro models shows) or doesn't have time to develop as strong we would see very little wind but if it tracks just right (like the NAM) we could be looking at widespread 60-70 mph winds and a highly damaging storm on one of the most important travel days of the year.

Yea that arctic trough is staying up there. Terrible trends.

It really shows how terrain effects are what drives our windstorms. The 06Z Euro isn’t that different from the other runs. Just comes down to minor details in how the jet streak rounds the base of the trough.

Getting a winter low moving parallel to the Willamette Valley is an extraordinarily rare event, which probably speaks more to how different this year has been.

breezy earlier in the swamp too, it's coming.