2016-17 La Nina Watch/Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

There's spots in the subsurface cold pool that are at around -5.5 or -6c compared to average right now with nothing really above average at depth hiding anywhere else in the ENSO region so there could possibly be something to an "off the charts" La Niña. NOT A FORECAST but a thought at the moment for sure. We'll have to see how much surfaces and how quickly. Interesting times coming for sure.

[OKwx2k4]

Also, don't read that post the wrong way. Lol. I'm not saying or implying that the La Niña could be -5.5 or -6c but off the charts would be more like sub -2.5 range.

[Geos]

Loving the epic winter calls at a 7 month lead time

 

A "unique" set of parameters are coming together.

[Tom]

It's official..we are on "watch"...

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/04/14/noaa-issues-la-nina-watch-as-tropical-pacific-temperatures-tank/?postshare=6871460719115026&tid=ss_tw

[OKwx2k4]

It's official..we are on "watch"...

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/04/14/noaa-issues-la-nina-watch-as-tropical-pacific-temperatures-tank/?postshare=6871460719115026&tid=ss_tw

Saw that earlier as well. Pretty much all the oceans are cooling steadily this year which is quite a contrast to the last Niño to Niña flip from 2009-2011.

[Geos]

That cold pool is really taking off.

 

[Tom]

That cold pool is really taking off.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Would be interesting to see if that cold pool will end up becoming a multi-year event in the N PAC.  A lot of met's believed the warm ring in the E PAC would be gone from the recent strong Nino but that didn't quite happen.

[Geos]

Would be interesting to see if that cold pool will end up becoming a multi-year event in the N PAC.  A lot of met's believed the warm ring in the E PAC would be gone from the recent strong Nino but that didn't quite happen.

 

It took a beating, but still there. Usually in a la Niña the Pacific NW, BC is quite stormy.

la Niña is not going to help the SW drought.

[Tom]

Here is the weekly SST update and clearly the eastern Pacific is beginning to upwell cooler waters...

 

 

As OKC noted, look at how much cold water is lurking below.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

[Geos]

Below normal water temps streaking west along the equator.

This la Niña is going to develop fast I think.

 

[OKwx2k4]

That's really taking off now!

[Tom]

The days are numbered for the remaining top 50m of warmer waters in the central pacific.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

It's quite amazing seeing the evolution of this transition in such a large body of water.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

[Tom]

I found this article rather interesting.  Take a look at the comparison of the El Nino in 1997/98 vs 2015/16 and you can see the various ENSO region trends.  Of note, pay attention to ENSO 1.2 and ENSO 3 regions...they are falling off a cliff!

 

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/04/25/for-those-watching-the-sea-surface-temperature-anomalies-of-the-equatorial-pacific-and-the-decay-of-the-el-nino/

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Still lots of -4c water under there. Awesome.

[jaster220]

I found this article rather interesting.  Take a look at the comparison of the El Nino in 1997/98 vs 2015/16 and you can see the various ENSO region trends.  Of note, pay attention to ENSO 1.2 and ENSO 3 regions...they are falling off a cliff!

 

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/04/25/for-those-watching-the-sea-surface-temperature-anomalies-of-the-equatorial-pacific-and-the-decay-of-the-el-nino/

 

 

 

 

 

I think it was mentioned before, and certainly was in all the comments/responses on that link, that we're actually in a period of low solar and a regime that's kind of "anti-strong Nino" if you will. Thus the snap-back seems to be much quicker than during that other PDO phase during 97-98's biggie.  I have to say after the way this month has flipped to a cold pattern so easily on the heels of the last 2 cold springs, I am not at all excited to read the chatta about crop failure in northern latitudes and shorter growing seasons, etc, etc..

[Geos]

............and the beat goes on with these chilly temps here in SEMI. Frost reported in my area the last 2 mornings and I am under a Frost Advisory for tonight once again with temps dropping into the lower 30's. Numerous trees here are still bare with just a few trying to blossom out, but are really struggling to. I have a very strong feeling that winter 2016-17 will be one for the record books in terms of cold and snow.

 

Jaster220: are you seeing this in your area as well?!

 

Hasn't been getting to freezing, but it's too cold for anything to grow more. Except for small leaves on some shrubs and a couple softwood trees, everything is bare still.

 

ENSO index 3.4 down to +1.0 now

 

[hlcater]

That sucks geos, out here we have nearly full leaves on most trees, with all of the shrubs in and around my neighborhood with leaves as well.

[Niko]

Hasn't been getting to freezing, but it's too cold for anything to grow more. Except for small leaves on some shrubs and a couple softwood trees, everything is bare still.

 

ENSO index 3.4 down to +1.0 now

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[Tom]

Equatorial Pacific waters continue the dramatic cooling...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

The way things are going, we could be reaching La Nada status by end of May.

 

Look at how much colder waters lurk below...notice the volume of -4/-5C waters not far from the surface.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

[Tom]

SCRIPPS updated May SST Outlook...not much change

 

Sept/Oct/Nov...

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-05_for_2016-09.jpg

 

Dec/Jan/Feb...

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-05_for_2016-12.jpg

[Tom]

Monday CPC update...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

[Tom]

As the SOI continues to rise quickly, watch those colder waters upwell quicker.  Over the last couple weeks, we had a sharply negative SOI and as a result, ENSO 3.4 region rose a bit and 1.2 rose by a lot.  Watch these trend much lower by mid month. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

[Geos]

As the SOI continues to rise quickly, watch those colder waters upwell quicker.  Over the last couple weeks, we had a sharply negative SOI and as a result, ENSO 3.4 region rose a bit and 1.2 rose by a lot.  Watch these trend much lower by mid month. 

 

 

 

 

Warm pool is getting shoved west, so not surprised to see that slight rise in region 3.4.

 

Last area of the +2 area is now gone. The area of 1-2 in the eastern Pacific is really starting to decrease now.

[Tom]

Here is the latest May update on the JAMSTEC and it's showing a faster and stronger push towards a moderate La Nina compared to its previous couple runs.

 

Summer...

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2016.1may2016.gif

 

Fall...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2016.1may2016.gif

 

Winter...showing a pocket of -2C waters, similar to the CFSv2 model.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2017.1may2016.gif

 

 

Here is the 2-year ENSO forecast...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1may2016.gif

[Geos]

Been seeing cooling of water off the Pacific NW this last couple weeks and the cold pool to the west is migrating farther east - probably end up splitting that warm pool off the West Coast.

 

[Tom]

ENSO 3.4 region starting to dip towards La Nada status...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

 

 

You can see the stripe of cooler waters beginning to pop up along the equatorial pacific...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

[james1976]

I'm liking these models. Would be an interesting next winter if these verify.

[OKwx2k4]

I'd bet that the bulk of the central CONUS is below average next winter.

[Geos]

Hard fall in 3.4.

 

 

There she goes!

 

[Geos]

I move to the Northeast with the hopes of seeing decent winters.

 

Gets a mega Nina and faces the prospect of a couple warm and dry winters.

 

La Niña should mean at least normal temps in the Philadelphia region.

[OKwx2k4]

I move to the Northeast with the hopes of seeing decent winters.

 

Gets a mega Nina and faces the prospect of a couple warm and dry winters.

We'll see I guess. That's still a long way to speculate. It was just my initial thought that's all. Warm east coast and SE US, average or below everywhere else. Good chance of a +PDO La Niña winter which is a bit of an oddity.

[Tom]

ENSO Regions 3 & 3.4, respectively, heading towards "0"...it's a matter of time before we dip negative.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

[jaster220]

La Niña should mean at least normal temps in the Philadelphia region.

 

For a winter enthusiast, "normal" probably doesn't get him much in Philly unlike Chicago or Milwaukee or Minny

[Tom]

I found this cool 3-D illustration of the Pacific waters...and the article link can be found here: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/la-ni%C3%B1a-coming-deep-pool-cool-water-making-its-way-across-tropical

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

That's really cool Tom. It's crazy how there's still very little warm water anywhere at depth in the whole basin.

[Tom]

That's really cool Tom. It's crazy how there's still very little warm water anywhere at depth in the whole basin.

Indeed, you can imagine how much global temps are going to dive once the central Pacific cools.  Should be interesting to see if JB's Theory will in fact work.

[OKwx2k4]

Indeed, you can imagine how much global temps are going to dive once the central Pacific cools. Should be interesting to see if JB's Theory will in fact work.

Yes it definitely will. There's a lot of evidence to support his idea based on past history. I wonder how the +PDO will affect things with La Nina as we go forward also.

[Geos]

For a winter enthusiast, "normal" probably doesn't get him much in Philly unlike Chicago or Milwaukee or Minny

 

In a moderate to strong la Niña the weak jet stream allows the storms to spread the wealth nicely. So hopefully iFred will get some.

[james1976]

Indeed, you can imagine how much global temps are going to dive once the central Pacific cools.  Should be interesting to see if JB's Theory will in fact work.

What's his theory? Did i miss something?

[Tom]

What's his theory? Did i miss something?

He basically show cases that with every El Nino in the past, there has been an obvious spike in global temps, however, the La Nina that follows also drags down global temps.  Notice the falls have been bigger with the previous two El Nino's.  On top of that, we just experienced a strong El Nino and his theory would suggest a much bigger fall in 2017-19.