April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Honestly it's been pretty boring. Wet but neither warm nor cool. Just haven't hit 65 or 70 because it's been cloudy not because we ve had cold air masses.

It's all opinions. Although I would say if cloudiness were the only reason we haven't gotten that warm this far then there would be many other springs on the period of record that had gone this late without any warmth.

[IbrChris]

I will say Saturday at Seaside was pretty great. The clouds were mainly just inland with a strip of near nonstop sunshine along the immediate beach and offshore. It was around 60 in town...55 or so on the beach with the breeze a bit brisk. Overall not bad.

[Jesse]

Spring is always the quietest time of year on this forum.

 

And count me among those who think this spring has been boring as hell, aside from the windstorm a couple Fridays ago. At the risk of sounding like Tim, it's been basically nothing but constant gloomy SW flow with little to no temperature variation. 2008 was an enjoyable and interesting spring, this one is not.

I agree that 2008 and 2011 were both much more enjoyable from a dynamic weather perspective. But hey at least the mountains are doing well for snow, and it's a nice change of pace from the warmth the last two springs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's all opinions. Although I would say if cloudiness were the only reason we haven't gotten that warm this far then there would be many other springs on the period of record that had gone this late without any warmth.

6 weeks since we had low snow levels. Many many many springs have had much colder troughing, but they also were more dynamic with warmer ridging periods.

[BLI snowman]

6 weeks since we had low snow levels. Many many many springs have had much colder troughing, but they also were more dynamic with warmer ridging periods.

Yeah, there hasn't even been an appreciable trough since early March. Lame.

[Front Ranger]

The Spring Only a Jesse Could Love.

[Deweydog]

It's my opinon that my opinion is the right one regarding this spring. I'll do a thread articulating said opinion sometime over the next few days and what it means for this summer and beyond. Stay tuned!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, there hasn't even been an appreciable trough since early March. Lame.

Yeah, to call this a wet spring would be accurate. To call it a cold spring would be wildly inaccurate. 

 

PDX is slightly below normal on temps for the month. EUG and SLE are about average. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Pulled off a high just over 60F today, it certainly felt warm from the morning until about 3~4pm when clouds and light showers rolled in.

[Front Ranger]

It's my opinon that my opinion is the right one regarding this spring. I'll do a thread articulating said opinion sometime over the next few days and what it means for this summer and beyond. Stay tuned!

According to Tim's poll, this spring has the lowest approval rating of any spring ever. Can't argue with science.

[Jesse]

Yeah, to call this a wet spring would be accurate. To call it a cold spring would be wildly inaccurate.

 

PDX is slightly below normal on temps for the month. EUG and SLE are about average.

Did anyone call it a cold spring?

 

The lack of warmth has been historically notable, and it's coming off of our coldest winter in decades, but that does not automatically make it a cold spring statistically. Although we still have May!

[Jesse]

The Spring Only a Jesse Could Love.

I wouldn't say I love it. 2008 and 2011 were springs I loved. I'm just not climbing up the walls.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wouldn't say I love it. 2008 and 2011 were springs I loved. I'm just not climbing up the walls.

 

Jesse, those were actually cold springs. You are correct. This year is nothing like that. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3.72" of rain so far this month. About average.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, to call this a wet spring would be accurate. To call it a cold spring would be wildly inaccurate.

 

PDX is slightly below normal on temps for the month. EUG and SLE are about average.

Definitely feels similar to April 1993, which was wall to wall rain and not particularly cold.

[TT-SEA]

3.72" of rain so far this month. About average.

 

Rain on 15 out of 17 days this month here... way above normal for even my location.     Normal is around 50% of the days.

 

This continues a theme that started at the end of January.    There were just 2 days without rain in March... and 4 days in February.  

 

That is my complaint about this spring.   I would gladly take way above normal precipitation if we still got even just the normal number of dry days.   But rain on 68 out of the last 76 days?   Come on.   That is pretty miserable by normal human standards.

[BLI snowman]

At least it will stay very green this year.

[TT-SEA]

At least it will stay very green this year.

Don't need rain every day to have that.

[Jesse]

At least it will stay very green this year.

We're due for a summer where everything doesn't look totally parched by July.

[TT-SEA]

We're due for a summer where everything doesn't look totally parched by July.

Ironic if we spent all spring with ridiculous overkill on persistent rain and then still end up scorched and parched in July and August. It could rain every minute for 6 months and after a couple weeks of hot weather... things are parched anyways. Some variety would be nice.

[Jesse]

Ironic if we spent all spring with ridiculous overkill on persistent rain and then still end up scorched and parched in July and August. It could rain every minute for 6 months and after a couple weeks of hot weather... things are parched anyways. Some variety would be nice.

Nah, there is a difference between a few weeks of hot weather and seasonal and/or long term drought.

 

I agree about the variety thing. Just doesn't look to be in the cards yet. Although going forward there looks to be a trend toward drier and warmer days scattered in with more frequency, which is to be expected by this time of year.

[TT-SEA]

Nah, there is a difference between a few weeks of hot weather and seasonal and/or long term drought.

 

I agree about the variety thing. Just doesn't look to be in the cards yet. Although going forward there looks to be a trend toward drier and warmer days scattered in with more frequency, which is to be expected by this time of year.

ECMWF has been hinting at a return to a much wetter pattern next week. Makes sense after rain on 90% of the days in the last 2.5 months.

[Phil]

That's not gonna help the fires in the SE...unless it's warm and wet.

 

I'm fine if 80+ waits until June but let's at least have a smattering of 70s between now and June. I'm not sure if I recall how to use my barbeque.

I scheduled a late-July trip to WA/BC, party out of anticipation for what looks to be a blast-furnace summer back here. Hoping to have missed the worst of it when I return in late August.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely due for a wetter pattern. GFS hints at this as well. I bet a few places eek out a 70 on Friday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some light rain falling this morning. This appears to be something of a seasonal trend. 

[TT-SEA]

Some light rain falling this morning. This appears to be something of a seasonal trend. 

 

Had some nourishing rain overnight!   So nice to see... definitely needed.  

[Dave]

Woke up to a biblical downpour with hail included.  3rd straight day with heavy rain.

 

April showers bring May showers.

[Phil]

This. Has been forever since we've seen a modest IPWP/IO uplift regime under ATL uplift.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/ED721660-0EB0-44B6-BDBA-167EBE165F7C_zpsukzs50hj.png

[Phil]

FWIW, the JMA was the only model to correctly depict the extended NPAC jet and stormy California pattern last winter, so maybe it's worth posting.

 

The new monthly release remains consistent, depicting the PNW as the goldilox region this summer, while the rest of the country enters the blast furnace. Slightly cooler and wetter than average conditions overall, but nothing overbearing.

 

May

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/63CF8A7A-2202-4D56-96D8-8C1430FFCB2C_zps677mozpo.jpg

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2D61C480-89A3-4642-9A08-2E675DC76E34_zpstybz2ipg.jpg

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/170A0201-C8A0-45B5-83C8-CBCDDA7E1FF1_zpsj9r4pukc.jpg

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the latest CFS monthly forecast for May, June, and July:

 

 

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Had some nourishing rain overnight! So nice to see... definitely needed.

Could definitely use it here.

[Front Ranger]

These long range models are all over the place! Here it is mid April and STILL no consensus.

[stuffradio]

It's my opinon that my opinion is the right one regarding this spring. I'll do a thread articulating said opinion sometime over the next few days and what it means for this summer and beyond. Stay tuned!

I'll counter your opinion thread with my own opinion thread regarding this spring.

[Jesse]

These long range models are all over the place! Here it is mid April and STILL no consensus.

Those cheap weather channel graphics are second to none for seasonal outlooks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Those cheap weather channel graphics are second to none for seasonal outlooks.

They absolutely nailed our warm winter

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Had some nourishing rain overnight!   So nice to see... definitely needed.  

 

Praise Kek!

[Jesse]

Could be a little thunderstormy today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could be a little thunderstormy today.

 

Could be  warm one. 

[Jesse]

Could be warm one.

I've already got my AC blasting!