August 2017 Observations and Discussion

[james1976]

A lot of leaves came down yesterday evening with the rain. Most had color. Some were still green.

[Tom]

Over the next 2 weeks, I counted 3-4 storm systems on the GFS to track from the southern coast of Japan towards the N PAC.  Active East Asian Theory???  It's going to be an interesting month of September.  I'm expecting to see plentiful troughs to swing through out of Canada.

[jaster220]

Over the next 2 weeks, I counted 3-4 storm systems on the GFS to track from the southern coast of Japan towards the N PAC.  Active East Asian Theory???  It's going to be an interesting month of September.  I'm expecting to see plentiful troughs to swing through out of Canada.

 

Bring it on, so ready for a more active pattern across SMI. This morning's rainfall was nice and surprisingly came with some blustery winds, even inland at Marshall. Car was getting buffeted pretty good on 94 like an autumn system.

 

 

[Niko]

Autumn knocking on the doorstep as my temps stand a chance in dropping into the 40s at night after the passage of the CF with highs possibly not getting outta the 60s later this week.

[Tom]

Woah, high rez NAM trending colder for the Northwoods for tomorrow night!  I could see some frosty conditions across the Hayward/Wausau regions of N Wisco.

 

 

 

[james1976]

Woah, high rez NAM trending colder for the Northwoods for tomorrow night! I could see some frosty conditions across the Hayward/Wausau regions of N Wisco.

 

 

 

Pretty impressive for late Aug.

I have a chance at seeing 40s two nights in a row.

[jaster220]

Woah, high rez NAM trending colder for the Northwoods for tomorrow night!  I could see some frosty conditions across the Hayward/Wausau regions of N Wisco.

 

 

 

 

..right into mby in Calhoun cnty as well. Better check my local - it was still a really mild 72F on the way in this morning. Will be quite the flip if those maps verify!

 

Edit: Looking like at least (3) and quite likely (4) mornings in the 40's starting Thurs morning. Good-bye summer, it's been fun while it lasted!

[Tom]

..right into mby in Calhoun cnty as well. Better check my local - it was still a really mild 72F on the way in this morning. Will be quite the flip if those maps verify!

 

Edit: Looking like at least (3) and quite likely (4) mornings in the 40's starting Thurs morning. Good-bye summer, it's been fun while it lasted!

Turned off my A/C this morning for likely the last time this year! Cold front has made it through the area and already feeling the difference. Another epic stretch of tranquil days and comfortably pleasant wx!

[jaster220]

Nice!

 

Coming to a lake near me (soon)

 

 

[Tom]

Nice!

 

Coming to a lake near me (soon)

 

20170822 KDTX Gale Warning.JPG

Your taste of "Gales of November "...in August...that's awesome!  I'm liking the trends of these type of systems we are seeing so early in the season.  BTW, ORD officially has seen (9) 90F degree days this year (avg 18) so much below normal in that dept.  That'll be all she wrote for the heat this summer.

[Tom]

Remnants of #Harvey are being picked up on the 12z GEFS to track up towards the S Midwest and then maybe S Lakes early next week???

 

 

 

[jaster220]

 

Remnants of #Harvey are being picked up on the 12z GEFS to track up towards the S Midwest and then maybe S Lakes early next week???

 

Our first OHV runner???

[Tom]

Our first OHV runner???

12z Euro suggest so!

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

The timing couldn't have worked out any better. Better hope the Euro is right about this not being a big surge/wind threat and also landfalling down near Corpus or I may have to share the road with a bunch of evacuees on my drive to Oklahoma Thursday.

[Niko]

12z Euro suggest so!

 

 

Man, that is a tremendously perfect track for a major snowstorm in SMI had it been winter now.

[Niko]

Much cooler air coming in now as CF has passed on by. Hello Autumn. Temps will nosedive later this week with lows getting quite nippy. Perhaps even some frost??!!

[Tom]

Much cooler air coming in now as CF has passed on by. Hello Autumn. Temps will nosedive later this week with lows getting quite nippy. Perhaps even some frost??!!

I'm sure this cooler air feels chilly to you after coming back from the heat in Greece.

[Minny_Weather]

I see how it is, GFS.

 

[james1976]

Currently 49°!

[jaster220]

 

"12z Euro suggest so!"

 

Come on winter! Like Niko said, after waiting like 20 months for a storm to be in a favorable position, those maps get the pulse elevated a bit

[Tom]

I see how it is, GFS.

 

GFSSGP_prec_precacc_180.png

Modern day Noah's Arc scenario? 00z Euro has not 1, but 2 landfalls on the southern coast! Crazy scenario if it happens.

[Minny_Weather]

Modern day Noah's Arc scenario? 00z Euro has not 1, but 2 landfalls on the southern coast! Crazy scenario if it happens.

At the end of it all, I think this storm will make Allison look weak.

[NEJeremy]

what happened to the eclipse thread? had some more pics I wanted to share

[Tom]

what happened to the eclipse thread? had some more pics I wanted to share

Not sure. It's nowhere to be found. Wtf!

[Tom]

12z Euro flashing another run as close to an Apps runner as you can get!  If Winter, we'd be talkin'..."Here Blizzard, Blizzard, Blizzard!"

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

What I find a coincidence, or not, both EURO & GFS suggesting wound up Autumn storms as we flip the calendar into September.  Next month is going to be fun tracking storm systems from what I'm seeing.  Throw in some re-curving Typhoons and it will get interesting.

[Minny_Weather]

Frost Advisory up for the U.P. So weird. It's August.

[Tom]

Frost Advisory up for the U.P. So weird. It's August.

I think this is a "tease" of what is to come over the next 2-4 weeks...are you ready to get out of Houston???

[Minny_Weather]

I think this is a "tease" of what is to come over the next 2-4 weeks...are you ready to get out of Houston???

A bit sad I'll be missing on the fun. But I'm ready for mild weather and DPs in the 40s and 50s. Let's do this.

[Niko]

I'm sure this cooler air feels chilly to you after coming back from the heat in Greece.

You betcha!.....but, on the islands, it tends to be a lot cooler, but not by too much..

[Niko]

Come on winter! Like Niko said, after waiting like 20 months for a storm to be in a favorable position, those maps get the pulse elevated a bit

[james1976]

DMX with some interesting stuff in their PM disco:
The best potential for precipitation arrives over the
weekend as a strong short wave passes through the region. The
greatest chance for precipitation will be late Saturday afternoon into
early Sunday morning. This system may bring rainfall amounts of
one half to one inch or more to some areas. At this time, northern
Iowa would be the target area for the higher amounts.

Both the ECMWF and GFS solutions are having the weekend short wave
evolve into an upper low by early next week that will keep the
steep north/northwest flow in place across Iowa. This system
could have several impacts across Iowa and also well to the south.
For Iowa, likely a round of even cooler weather Monday and
Tuesday with the potential for sporadic diurnal showers
developing. The upper low in conjunction to an amplifying ridge
over the western CONUS will lead to current Tropical Depression
Harvey to stall over the southeast Texas coast that may result in
a tremendous rainfall across that region.
 

[Niko]

A couple of crisp nights ahead. Just checked my lows for tonight and tomorrow night. Dang, we are talking lows in the mid to upper 40s.   Are we in August or September????!!!!

 

@Jaster,

You will probably get lower.

[Tom]

Another day with possible water spouts is expected to day on LM.  Unusual to see a handful of days already this year with water spouts.

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/wxstory/Tab1FileL.png

 

 

Along with the N/NE flow, some lake effect rain showers are likely to develop later today.  Feels more like September this morning.

 

Lovin' this 7-day forecast...

 

 

 

Woah, Int'l Falls dipped down into the low 30's in August!  Low DP's did the trick...now, can you imagine what it will look like in September when strong cold fronts push through??  I've notice models have under estimated to cooler temps and have not done a good job "seeing" the cooler air in the Week 1-2 range this season.  Last season, it was a completely different story.  Models underestimated the warmth when it came.

 

 

 

[Tom]

In other news, #Harvey likely to become a Hurricane today as the tropical system is undergoing rapid intensification.  Some models suggest a CAT 2 or higher storm???

 

Healthy looking storm system in the GOM...

 

[Tom]

It's going to be a cool and crisp morning tomorrow for many outlying areas in IL/WI/MI...

 

 

 

 

Sat am looks even cooler in some spots...

 

[james1976]

[Tom]

It'll be interesting to see where Harvey tracks later next week as a piece of energy coming down out of Canada interacts with Harvey.  00z EPS hinting at an amplification of a big trough over the Lakes region during Labor Day weekend.

 

 

[james1976]

Looks to be a rather fall-like day today. Mostly cloudy with a few light showers. I received 0.12" overnight. Temps may not get out of the 60s if it stays overcast enough!

[westMJim]

Here at my house I had a low of 49° this is the coldest low at my house since a low of 47° on June 27^th it looks like the low at the airport was 51° and that also would be the coldest low there since June 27^th  Last year the first time the temperature fell below 50° at my house was on September 26^th and at the airport it was September 27^th  Over the years the mean first night where in gets below 50° at GRR is August 21^st with the range from August 1^st in 1976 the latest date of September 27^th in 2016 (last year)