December 2017 Observations and Discussions

[Niko]

What’s with the above temps in Florida?

It will probably cool off there also w this arctic airmass coming, especially, the northern parts of FL.

[jaster220]

I'll tell ya one thing, the EC has a chance of a couple of big dogs next week. (1-2 footer) They will be in a very favorable pattern. Hope they don't still our show bud.

 

GFS showing crazy amounts for N NY state/New England (Ofc!). That Met from LOT commented that to his recollection the last time that region got blasted by multiple rounds of synoptic storms was the Feb '10 blitz when the Catskills scored like 80-100" 

[Snowlover76]

Hopefully the north trend on Christmas stops.

[jaster220]

It will probably cool off there also w this arctic airmass coming, especially, the northern parts of FL.

 

Idk, SE ridge in play and fighting back against the PV to the north. This is a big reason storms want to form and fight it out in the battle ground between the two extremes as I showed in a post some days back..

 

[Niko]

Per NOAA:
 

The clipper system for the evening of Dec 24th warrants monitoring
as the models are advertising the potential for favorable track of
British Columbia potential vorticity. The question is whether or not
this PV anomaly will be able to sneak ahead of a main midlevel
vorticity lobe that will be turning hard from a neutral to negative
tilt over the central part of the country. Plenty of moving parts to
work through, but the potential for a light snowfall accumulation
appears possible for at least a portion of the cwa Sunday 18Z to
Monday 06Z.

[Niko]

Idk, SE ridge in play and fighting back against the PV to the north. This is a big reason storms want to form and fight it out in the battle ground between the two extremes as I showed in a post some days back..

 

20171212 0z 324hr Euro 2m temps.PNG

If the SER is too strong, then, yes, FL escapes the arctic air ( whole state ).

[jaster220]

Hopefully the north trend on Christmas stops.

 

Hey, your blue ribbon award for pessimism may in jeopardy! You've got some serious competition from the I-70 peeps in IN/OH

 

 

You nailed it Buddy!  I'm currently enjoying the warmth of the Bahamas right now but I'd be lying if I said I haven't been watching model runs to see what's up when I get back,

That being said I think us Ohioans (at least the i70 corridor crowd) have developed a cynicism unmatched in its depth and validation  .....explaining the anemic growth of this thread.

Don't show me fantasy storms or perfect patterns ...

SHOW ME THE SNOW

[james1976]

Blue ribbon award for pessimism.....LMAO

[Niko]

GFS showing crazy amounts for N NY state/New England (Ofc!). That Met from LOT commented that to his recollection the last time that region got blasted by multiple rounds of synoptic storms was the Feb '10 blitz when the Catskills scored like 80-100" 

Yup, it is looking like they will get blasted one storm after the other. 

[Snowlover76]

Lol

[jaster220]

LOT met says the Euro verbatim has improved today and now looks llike 1-4" across Chicago with another 1" on Christmas late day. Ukie also looking solid for us. Good trends..where's Tom and his Euro data?? 

[james1976]

DMX said Euro was looking good for N IA but i havent seen any maps.

[Tom]

LOT met says the Euro verbatim has improved today and now looks llike 1-4" across Chicago with another 1" on Christmas late day. Ukie also looking solid for us. Good trends..where's Tom and his Euro data??

I posted earlier this am, didn’t see it? Anyhow, I’m going to start a Christmas Holiday thread in a bit. Just finishing up some breakfast before I have to head out for a long day.

[Niko]

A few light snowflurries in the air currently making for a nice scenery outside.

[Niko]

LOT met says the Euro verbatim has improved today and now looks llike 1-4" across Chicago with another 1" on Christmas late day. Ukie also looking solid for us. Good trends..where's Tom and his Euro data?? 

Tis the Season. Hope you score bud!

[jaster220]

All the models, including higher rez, are picking up on a Christmas Eve snow event out in the Plains/MW and possibly near the lower lakes.  Might start a thread for this one and the Christmas Day light snow chance if things hold on this morning.

 

K, yep my bad. I did see your map(s) but thought it was only GFS

 

[Tom]

Whipped up a thread for multiple snow chances over the Christmas holiday...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1701-christmas-holiday-snow-events/

[bud2380]

GFS just a smidge further north at 6pm Saturday night.

[Niko]

Few flurries flying out there and temp @ 30F.

[james1976]

GFS might be latching onto the Euro's idea of nw flow clipper train instead of the deeper sytem for next week.

[Minny_Weather]

GFS might be latching onto the Euro's idea of nw flow clipper train instead of the deeper sytem for next week.

BLAH. I saw that too. That hardly ever bodes well for us.

[Jaycee]

BLAH. I saw that too. That hardly ever bodes well for us.

 

Yeah that's what it looks like. I know it usually does well for the Great Lakes but I think everyone even there would be on board with a Colorado Low bowling ball system instead of a clipper. Hope it switches back, that's scary to see NW flow coming back

 

 

Also, thanks Tom for the birthday wish! I sorta kinda had a birthday present last night, love seeing snow OTG, even if it's just sprinkled on the grass, so much better than seeing brown everywhere!

[Snowlover76]

BLAH. I saw that too. That hardly ever bodes well for us.

color me suprised 

 

 

at least we get our 2 week winter

[james1976]

[hlcater]

GFS is way, way more aggressive with the PV sliding southward over the central US. As such a dry, cold NW flow regime is in place and any hopes of a significant SW flow event from the 28-30th is non-existent on this run. The euro still has something, which is nice. Run-to-run consistency leaves a lot to be desired.

[james1976]

GFS is way, way more aggressive with the PV sliding southward over the central US. As such a dry, cold NW flow regime is in place and any hopes of a significant SW flow event from the 28-30th is non-existent on this run. The euro still has something, which is nice. Run-to-run consistency leaves a lot to be desired.

Theres a potent clipper on the GFS though.....

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Both gfs and cmc got rid of yhe monster storm...fir now. Only clippers now

[james1976]

Yeah way active. Would like to see consistency.

[Niko]

Man, this arctic airmass next week means business. My highs not expected to get outta the single digits, most likely on Tuesday and then, into the teens thereafter.. Brrrrr.

[jaster220]

CMC has had the main storm way east, followed by a strong Clipper-hybrid for a couple days now. Was/am hoping it was NOT leading the way. Still too much PNA???

[Hoosier]

Nice trends bud! Say, I was surprised when I posted the NWS WSWarn history map to see KLOT issued one just 11 days ago? I don't remember, where/what was that for? As the models converge towards #realsnow threats for Sun/Monday, ofc GRR goes the other direction in my local 5-day, removing the "snow likely" and replacing it with "chance of SHSN"...gotta love it!

I think that warning was for the Porter county lake effect.

[Money]

Euro looks like it’s still developing something for next Friday

[SE Wisconsin]

Snow!! I just want snow!  Doesn't matter if it's a Clipper of a Panhandle Hook - just give me snow!  At least something to cover the ground here again.  Bare ground at this time of year is so ugly.  Would be nice to get enough to get the cross country ski trails functioning as well.

[Snowlover76]

Euro is crap out here 

[Tony]

Just looked at the 12z GFS and it has like a meso-low, end of next week, just hanging around Lake Michigan for like 3 days . Really strange setup.

[Hawkeye]

The digging trough scenario that connects with the gulf and dumps on the entire midwest would have been nice, but I'll take the series of waves of light snow.

[Jaycee]

The digging trough scenario that connects with the gulf and dumps on the entire midwest would have been nice, but I'll take the series of waves of light snow.

 

NOOOOO. Lol it looks great for Iowa don't get me wrong, but yuck. Like yeah obviously clippers are great, I had my fair share in Minnesota. But there is nothing, like a monstrous Colorado Low. Seriously what can top that? Having a storm that lays 12" of snow from Nebraska all throughout the Midwest? Would you rather catch a bunch of bluegill or a giant musky?

 

Obviously I'm bias towards Colorado lows cuz we actually get snow when those happen, but I reallyyyy hope it comes back I miss being on those topics that have pages on end where we're all watching a massive storm develop.

 

 

EDIT: My god, I hate OAX. They are honestly the worst.  Reading their discussions on everything just piss me off. They're like a well-spoken Snowlover76 when a storm is showing-- maybe rightfully so, but it's never a good read. Give me something good for once guys!

[Minny_Weather]

EDIT: My god, I hate OAX. They are honestly the worst. Reading their discussions on everything just piss me off. They're like a well-spoken Snowlover76 when a storm is showing-- maybe rightfully so, but it's never a good read. Give me something good for once guys!

The only good forecasters at OAX are Dergan, DeWald, Boustead, and Mayes. The rest are a complete dumpster fire when there is even the slightest model disagreement.

[jaster220]

The only good forecasters at OAX are Dergan, DeWald, Boustead, and Mayes. The rest are a complete dumpster fire when there is even the slightest model disagreement.

There's somebody worse than my WFO??

[james1976]

DMX talking possible wind chill advisory next week as well as keeping an eye on that wed-thu system.