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1/21 - 1/23 Plains/Midwest Blizzard

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#1
Tom

Posted 15 January 2018 - 01:17 PM

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The system that I've been anticipating for weeks to develop around the 21st is finally on the horizon. Models are somewhat agreeing of a strong storm system ejecting out into the Plains and then tracking towards the GL's. Knowing how this system performed in previous cycles I'm inclined to believe this will be a large scale system. Who will cash in? Spread the wealth? So much to iron out in the days to come.
Let's discuss....

It's another intense battle between the GFS & Euro...will the Europeans come back to defeat the Americans??? Or will the Americans tack on another win....????
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#2
gabel23

Posted 15 January 2018 - 01:20 PM

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Pretty good agreement this far out by all the models. Will be fun to track! 

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#3
Money

Posted 15 January 2018 - 01:28 PM

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If this goes bad I’m blaming Tom
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#4
St Paul Storm

Posted 15 January 2018 - 01:30 PM

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Tom, I think you said it in the Jan thread. This is all going to come down to where the high pressure sets up and how strong it is. There’s going to be a storm somewhere. Just a matter of seeing if this thing cuts or not. Fun tracking ahead.
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#5
CentralNebWeather

Posted 15 January 2018 - 01:33 PM

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It is good that the NWS office out of Hastings was talking about it this morning.  Will be interesting to read their afternoon disco.  



#6
bud2380

Posted 15 January 2018 - 01:41 PM

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12z GEFS

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_210.png


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#7
Money

Posted 15 January 2018 - 02:10 PM

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Gfs coming in nw this run by a good chunk

#8
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 January 2018 - 02:13 PM

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Gfs coming in nw this run by a good chunk

GFS says hold my beer.  Not so fast lol.


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#9
bud2380

Posted 15 January 2018 - 02:14 PM

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it's just a tick NW this run vs. 12z on the snow fields anyways.  



#10
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 January 2018 - 02:16 PM

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it's just a tick NW this run vs. 12z on the snow fields anyways.  

The low is a tad more northwest but the precip shield doesn't respond so its like it doesn't even matter lol.


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#11
Money

Posted 15 January 2018 - 02:18 PM

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http://www.instantwe...ASNOWI&hour=168

GB area destroyed

Low tracks through northern IL and up to Milwaukee

#12
bud2380

Posted 15 January 2018 - 02:19 PM

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the biggest difference i'm seeing is the snow on the back side has a more northeast placement to it, and on the 12z it was more stretched ENE.  Amounts maybe a tad lower this run. Overall pretty similar considering it's > 144 hours.  



#13
Tony

Posted 15 January 2018 - 02:21 PM

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Actually I thought this was going to end up worse so not that bad really.



#14
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 January 2018 - 02:21 PM

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sn10_acc.us_c.png


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#15
Money

Posted 15 January 2018 - 02:21 PM

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the biggest difference i'm seeing is the snow on the back side has a more northeast placement to it, and on the 12z it was more stretched ENE. Amounts maybe a tad lower this run. Overall pretty similar considering it's > 144 hours.

Less blocking up north as well

There was a piece from the northern stream that lagged behind which kind of delayed the HP to its north

You can see it here

http://www.instantwe...=PRMSL&hour=126

12z already had it way east with HP building in behind it http://www.instantwe...=PRMSL&hour=132

#16
bud2380

Posted 15 January 2018 - 02:22 PM

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here's the Kuchera snow map.  A couple inches of this in WI is from other systems.  

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#17
bud2380

Posted 15 January 2018 - 02:23 PM

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Looks like ratios are around 10:1.  Some places like Cedar Rapids are even less than that.  I live directly between the 6.3" and 1.8" #'s in Eastern  Iowa on that map.  



#18
bud2380

Posted 15 January 2018 - 02:25 PM

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Nice right angle on the GFS directly over my county keeping me as rain.  

 

 

prateptype_cat.us_mw.png



#19
bud2380

Posted 15 January 2018 - 02:26 PM

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lot of moisture here.

 

qpf_048h.us_mw.png



#20
james1976

Posted 15 January 2018 - 02:41 PM

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Gulf should be open for business. Someone will cash in.
Thats a pretty narrow snow band.

#21
james1976

Posted 15 January 2018 - 02:56 PM

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DMX feeling very confident and already going with likelies and some categoricals:

By Saturday a large 500 mb trough will have developed over the
western U.S., with an attendant surface cyclone developing over
the southern High Plains around the Oklahoma panhandle, and an
inverted surface trough stretching northeastward across parts of
Missouri, Iowa and Illinois. During the day Saturday clouds will
thicken near the surface trough and some light rain may fall, but
no impacts are anticipated. However, from Saturday night through
Sunday night the trough will eject eastward across our region and
deepen fairly rapidly. This will lead to increasing precipitation
chances spreading across Iowa and we now have likelies and even
some categoricals going from Sunday into Sunday night. Of course
at this range there is much uncertainty regarding precipitation
types and amounts, but the nearby location of the inverted surface
trough, as well as forecast temperatures and soundings, support a
rain/snow mix likely changing to snow later in the event as the
cyclone moves by. We will be watching this system through the
coming week as solutions coalesce.

#22
Money

Posted 15 January 2018 - 03:15 PM

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GFs ensembles

https://www.tropical...18011518&fh=156

#23
CentralNebWeather

Posted 15 January 2018 - 03:25 PM

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NWS Hastings not jumping to any conclusions. Will wait for several more days to see trends.

#24
Tabitha

Posted 15 January 2018 - 03:41 PM

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Absolutely no doubt in my mind that this is going to shift well north in the 0z suite.

 

Reasoning: The ridge of high pressure over the western Pacific at 12z was expansive and all-encompassing; but at 18z the Aleutian Low has migrated from the Gulf of Alaska down towards the Pacific Northwest Coast.  Consequently, the huge Canadian anticyclone sitting over the Praire Provinces of Canada, rather than building down into Montana and the western Dakotas; will be shunted off to the east; moving down towards Ontario & Upper Michigan....there are hints of this already; for when you compare the placement of the 540 line at 12z vs 18z, a significant northeast displacement is readily apparent.  This will allow broad low pressure to develop in the Colorado / Wyoming vicinity...and, as I wrote; everything will shift off to the north & west.



#25
LNK_Weather

Posted 15 January 2018 - 04:19 PM

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I'm worried about this thinning out similar to last week's storm. It's certainly trending narrower.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#26
snowstorm83

Posted 15 January 2018 - 04:23 PM

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Yeah I'd love to see warnings more than 2 counties wide



#27
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 January 2018 - 04:23 PM

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I'm worried about this thinning out similar to last week's storm. It's certainly trending narrower.

I always worry about a storm completely falling apart as we get closer. Always a possibility.


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#28
Tabitha

Posted 15 January 2018 - 08:09 PM

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Absolutely no doubt in my mind that this is going to shift well north in the 0z suite.

 

Reasoning: The ridge of high pressure over the western Pacific at 12z was expansive and all-encompassing; but at 18z the Aleutian Low has migrated from the Gulf of Alaska down towards the Pacific Northwest Coast.  Consequently, the huge Canadian anticyclone sitting over the Praire Provinces of Canada, rather than building down into Montana and the western Dakotas; will be shunted off to the east; moving down towards Ontario & Upper Michigan....there are hints of this already; for when you compare the placement of the 540 line at 12z vs 18z, a significant northeast displacement is readily apparent.  This will allow broad low pressure to develop in the Colorado / Wyoming vicinity...and, as I wrote; everything will shift off to the north & west.

 

Exactly like I said it would...the 0z German DWD ICON went way, way north with rain up into Duluth Minnesota and all of the UP of Michigan.



#29
bud2380

Posted 15 January 2018 - 08:12 PM

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GFS cutting through eastern Iowa this run.

#30
bud2380

Posted 15 January 2018 - 08:14 PM

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SLP tracks to around keokuk and then maybe just east of the quad cities. Snow band shifted north again from 18z. Canadian doesn’t have much of a system.

#31
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 January 2018 - 08:25 PM

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Exactly like I said it would...the 0z German DWD ICON went way, way north with rain up into Duluth Minnesota and all of the UP of Michigan.

Thats not going to happen with the amount of blocking this winter lol. Plus before anyone even tries and mention the warm air before this system so its going to go north argument is wrong..look what happened last week the snow hit Kansas and we were in the 50s the day before.


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#32
bud2380

Posted 15 January 2018 - 08:30 PM

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Solid hit for Lincoln and Omaha to Rochester and la crosse then into central WI

#33
Tabitha

Posted 15 January 2018 - 08:31 PM

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Thats not going to happen with the amount of blocking this winter lol. Plus before anyone even tries and mention the warm air before this system so its going to go north argument is wrong..look what happened last week the snow hit Kansas and we were in the 50s the day before.

 

What does what happened "last week" have to do with today?  Each weather system is an independent entity; and conditions and pressure patterns that influence it are not static and inert; but rather dynamic and in a state of constant flux.

 

Other than saying I am "wrong" w/o any genuine reasoning beyond invoking the concept of "blocking"; provide a good reason why a northerly track is "out of the question".

 

Instead of admitting that I gave a sound explanation for what the models would show a few hours later; you just dismiss everything I wrote in the most cavalier fashion.


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#34
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 January 2018 - 08:31 PM

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What the hell is wrong with the CMC. This thing is not going as north as Tabitha says or would like lol. The only other option I could see happening is it going east OR more likely to turn into just a trough moving west to east with just a trailing cold front and a passing line of showers / snow showers.


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#35
Madtown

Posted 15 January 2018 - 08:36 PM

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....frontal passage...its more than a trend at this point

#36
Hawkeye

Posted 15 January 2018 - 08:48 PM

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UK is a cutter across Iowa.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#37
Money

Posted 15 January 2018 - 08:51 PM

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What does what happened "last week" have to do with today?  Each weather system is an independent entity; and conditions and pressure patterns that influence it are not static and inert; but rather dynamic and in a state of constant flux.
 
Other than saying I am "wrong" w/o any genuine reasoning beyond invoking the concept of "blocking"; provide a good reason why a northerly track is "out of the question".
 
Instead of admitting that I gave a sound explanation for what the models would show a few hours later; you just dismiss everything I wrote in the most cavalier fashion.


Your post was excellent tbh
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#38
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 January 2018 - 08:54 PM

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What happened last week has everything to do with what has happened the entire winter. That's called "trends". And people wonder why we don't get big snows anymore because its a "trend". And the trend for the winter has been for models to eventually over do the northerly track of systems only for them to shift south then weaken then turn into a fast moving cold front / wave.


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#39
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 January 2018 - 09:00 PM

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Anyways, awaiting the GEFS. Should be interesting


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#40
Tabitha

Posted 15 January 2018 - 09:00 PM

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What happened last week has everything to do with what has happened the entire winter. That's called "trends". And people wonder why we don't get big snows anymore because its a "trend". And the trend for the winter has been for models to eventually over do the northerly track of systems only for them to shift south then weaken then turn into a fast moving cold front / wave.

 

Assuming arguendo we follow that line of thinking to its logical conclusion; if it snows this week; it must snow next week; ergo it must snow the week thereafter and every week thereafter straight into July...for it IS A TREND!

 

Thus it shall snow ad infinitum, in perpetuity and 4ever and ever Amen!



#41
hlcater

Posted 15 January 2018 - 09:04 PM

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What does what happened "last week" have to do with today?  Each weather system is an independent entity; and conditions and pressure patterns that influence it are not static and inert; but rather dynamic and in a state of constant flux.

 

Other than saying I am "wrong" w/o any genuine reasoning beyond invoking the concept of "blocking"; provide a good reason why a northerly track is "out of the question".

 

Instead of admitting that I gave a sound explanation for what the models would show a few hours later; you just dismiss everything I wrote in the most cavalier fashion.

Congratulations, you've met Craig.


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2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#42
LNK_Weather

Posted 15 January 2018 - 09:09 PM

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I'll take whatever as long as we get more than Cedar Rapids. I have friends from there and they love to rub snow in my face  <_<


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#43
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 January 2018 - 09:11 PM

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All I did was disagree with you and you went all nuts on me. Calm down. We'll see what happens lol. 


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#44
Money

Posted 15 January 2018 - 09:12 PM

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https://www.tropical...18011600&fh=150

Big spread yet

#45
Tabitha

Posted 15 January 2018 - 09:15 PM

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All I did was disagree with you and you went all nuts on me. Calm down. We'll see what happens lol. 

 

Be so kind as to not spin a false narrative of the colloquy in order to veil the fact that you did not prevail...



#46
hlcater

Posted 15 January 2018 - 09:16 PM

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Lotsa strong members in there. Maybe that means this has a lesser chance of trending into a turd? Anyone remember/have the ensemble members for last weeks system?


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#47
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 January 2018 - 09:34 PM

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Honestly, the latest GEFS looks even more uncertain. We can't be surprised though, this happens every time as we get closer. Yes we are approaching the hour of model mayhem and they will all begin to go there own way lol.


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#48
NH4NU

Posted 15 January 2018 - 10:23 PM

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EURO looks almost identical to last night's 00z run at 120hrs

 

Places the Low right around Fall City 


Edited by NH4NU, 15 January 2018 - 10:33 PM.


#49
gosaints

Posted 15 January 2018 - 10:28 PM

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Honestly, the latest GEFS looks even more uncertain. We can't be surprised though, this happens every time as we get closer. Yes we are approaching the hour of model mayhem and they will all begin to go there own way lol.


Did they "trend" NW? And what amount of blocking?
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#50
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 15 January 2018 - 10:35 PM

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Damnit lol. Can never be easy. Que the north trend for a day then back south over us for 3 days projecting huge amounts over eastern NEB only to weaken into a fast moving cold front lol.


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