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Super Bowl Weekend Snow

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#101
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:55 AM

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Highly doubt ratios are much above 10:1


Why's that? Wind may tear up the flakes a bit but upper air temps don't look like they'll do much, especially Sunday.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.5"


#102
gosaints

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:28 AM

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Set up screams dust to me


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#103
jaster220

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:52 AM

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From SMI forum thd:

 

Euro crushes areas from I94 south next week. Between 3 systems it is showing 20" by the end of next week. Overall I think we are entering a very snow period.

@Rogue, I was almost thinking the pattern looked like what we had from Dec 30th, 2013 to Jan 5th, 2014.

I would not be at all surprised to see the weekend system trend upwards a bit. I feel comfortable right now going with 3-6".

MJO is also is a strong phase 6 heading into phase 7 and this combined with neutral to negative PNA, Positive NAO and negative EPO into the 10th and we may do very well.


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 58.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#104
Niko

Posted 01 February 2018 - 12:22 PM

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Things are looking mighty interesting for all of SEMI and (even parts of SWMI, depending how far north it comes). Overall, have those shovels and snowblowers ready y'all Michiganders!


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#105
FarmerRick

Posted 01 February 2018 - 12:24 PM

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OAX Disco:

 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2018

Yet another clipper brings some snow chances to the area on Monday
into Monday night, moving southeast of the region early Tuesday.
It is important to note that the ECMWF also has a clipper during
this time, but keeps the bulk of the snow just to our north and
east with almost no impact for our area. Meanwhile, the GFS has
more of a central Rockies influence, with more snow further south.

Another clipper could be affecting the area Wednesday night into
Thursday, but again, both the GFS and ECMWF have opposing
solutions on timing and location of any precip potential, thus
forecast confidence is overall low through the extended period.



#106
jaster220

Posted 01 February 2018 - 01:32 PM

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Things are looking mighty interesting for all of SEMI and (even parts of SWMI, depending how far north it comes). Overall, have those shovels and snowblowers ready y'all Michiganders!

 

Yes they are..finally! 

 

GRR:

 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2018

Confidence is high for a period of moderate snow Saturday
afternoon through Sunday afternoon as sfc wave tracks along
arctic front draped across the lower Great Lakes. F-gen forcing
should be sufficient for banded precip and model soundings show
lift through a deep, saturated dendritic growth zone from Saturday
afternoon into Sunday afternoon. these type of f-gen events can
bring locally heavy amounts where the narrow bands pivot...so
local amounts over 8 inches are possible by Sunday morning.


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 58.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#107
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 01 February 2018 - 02:48 PM

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GFS takes a big step towards the euro. Not changing my expectations from a week ago. 1" for most of E IA. Best snows should be north and east as the Euro has shown for several days.


2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 26.9"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")


#108
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 February 2018 - 02:53 PM

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NAM drops an inch here via a moderate squall. That's quite the contrast to other models.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.5"


#109
GDR

Posted 01 February 2018 - 02:58 PM

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Yeah back to a turd fest
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#110
Tabitha

Posted 01 February 2018 - 03:02 PM

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Yeah back to a turd fest

 

Do you think there will be more than 2 inches of snow here (very low and unfavorably placed in the Black Hills) through Monday?

 

I seldom ask such questions; but your good taste shone through when you spoke sympathetically of my writing this morning...



#111
Andrew NE

Posted 01 February 2018 - 03:17 PM

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Yeah back to a turd fest


Same song and dance, although it fits the pattern all winter long.
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#112
Madtown

Posted 01 February 2018 - 05:28 PM

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yep today should be a peak in totals and now slide back down to 1 maybe 2 by the time the event starts. Been pretty much the theme.

#113
jaster220

Posted 01 February 2018 - 05:43 PM

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Kinda sucks when only 1.5 peeps can be enthused for an event around here..

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 58.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#114
Niko

Posted 01 February 2018 - 06:04 PM

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Yes they are..finally! 

 

GRR:

 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2018

Confidence is high for a period of moderate snow Saturday
afternoon through Sunday afternoon as sfc wave tracks along
arctic front draped across the lower Great Lakes. F-gen forcing
should be sufficient for banded precip and model soundings show
lift through a deep, saturated dendritic growth zone from Saturday
afternoon into Sunday afternoon. these type of f-gen events can
bring locally heavy amounts where the narrow bands pivot...so
local amounts over 8 inches are possible by Sunday morning.

Sweet... :D



#115
Stacsh

Posted 01 February 2018 - 06:05 PM

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Light to moderate snow here on Lake Michigan. Temp @ 12 degrees. Blowing fine crystals. Beautiful sight. Almost have the grass covered for first time in 2 weeks. Looks like south central Michigan could be the sweet spot the next 10 days.

#116
Stacsh

Posted 01 February 2018 - 06:09 PM

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Light to moderate snow here on Lake Michigan. Temp @ 12 degrees. Blowing fine crystals. Beautiful sight. Almost have the grass covered for first time in 2 weeks. Looks like south central Michigan could be the sweet spot the next 10 days.

Attached Files



#117
jaster220

Posted 01 February 2018 - 06:32 PM

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100+ mile streamer formed just west of BC. Looks to be hitting Kzoo pretty decent

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 58.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#118
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 February 2018 - 06:59 PM

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MPX with a rare evening update stating the snow tomorrow afternoon/evening may overachieve. May get 2” in about 3 hours, then snow most of the day on Saturday. Traffic could be an epic disaster with all the out of towners spinning their wheels.
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#119
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 01 February 2018 - 08:10 PM

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Yea these systems are quickly becoming a non event. One snow event south one mostly north and to get backlash light snow on backside

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#120
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:36 PM

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NAM is pretty sold on a snow squall solution for here. Honestly wouldn't be surprised to see the sun come out right after similar to Spring squalls.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.5"


#121
Grizzcoat

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:23 PM

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Euro coming around to the GFS and others for monday system. I will post maps in a little bit.



#122
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:27 PM

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I wouldn't call it coming around, its drastically different again and if you like what you see just wait till 12z. lol That rhymed 


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For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#123
Tabitha

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:36 PM

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 if you like what you see just wait till 12z. lol That rhymed 

 

Oh My Goddess; I'm rubbing off on Them...

 

Brrrrrrrrrrrr...scary.



#124
Grizzcoat

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:44 PM

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Attached File  graphic.aspx.png   36.37KB   0 downloadsAttached File  graphic.aspx.png   36.33KB   0 downloads



#125
Grizzcoat

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:45 PM

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Attached File  graphic.aspx.png   58.15KB   0 downloads



#126
Tabitha

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:49 PM

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Hate that model with every fiber of my corporeal being...

 

It always manages to destroy a nice storm.

 

Except in The Towns it Likes...The Snow Towns...it always kisses Those Towns Behinds....has snow there for 500 straight hours.

 

But in the non-snow towns; the biggest blizzard ever could be near; and it would print out a chance of a flurry.

 

I know how it thinks.  In fact; I know Before it thinks.

 

It is a walking refraction of Contemporary Times: Sanitized; Anesthetized, Lobotomized.

 

I will pay it back someday; for all the iniquities it has visited upon Me.



#127
Grizzcoat

Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:54 PM

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I wouldn't call it coming around, its drastically different again and if you like what you see just wait till 12z. lol That rhymed 

FTR-  I wrote it's "coming around to the GFS and others". To be more acute, the EURO is caving to other models it seems. Could it change? It likely will. But tonight the EURO,GFS and CMC all give many on this sub forum there largest event of the season.


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#128
Tabitha

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:18 PM

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To be more acute,

 

Warden Norton has a handle on it!

 

https://getyarn.io/y...3f-99742e46ed93



#129
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 01 February 2018 - 11:50 PM

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Oh My Goddess; I'm rubbing off on Them...

 

Brrrrrrrrrrrr...scary.

LOL


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#130
Grizzcoat

Posted 02 February 2018 - 01:56 AM

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06Z GFS  (this thread should probably be renamed since most of this actually falls on Monday for those in the Upper Midwest at least.)-Attached File  USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_099.gif   64.21KB   0 downloads


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#131
Grizzcoat

Posted 02 February 2018 - 02:03 AM

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BEERENDS at DMX still not overly impressed.  But at least she mentions "locally heavier amounts".

"Another upper trough to dig into the Rockies early next week, with
another shortwave trough moving through the region Monday into
Monday night. This will be the greatest chance for accumulating
snowfall in the current forecast period. A general 1 to 2 inches of
snow with some locally heavier amounts expected with this wave
currently with the heaviest band setting up across central Iowa.
Steadier snow to taper off Monday evening, with cyclonic flow
pattern remaining in place through mid to late week, with additional
weak waves traversing the area embedded in the fast northwesterly
flow. Very hard to nail down timing/placement for precipitation
chances with these systems, so did not make any changes to blended
grids with sporadic snow chances from Tuesday onward."



#132
Grizzcoat

Posted 02 February 2018 - 02:19 AM

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#133
dubuque473

Posted 02 February 2018 - 03:37 AM

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She takes away our snow and beer.
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Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter

 

78.1"  Total snowfall

February Snowfall 32.5"

City salt usage  : 12,211 tons

Days of measurable snow  : 40


#134
Grizzcoat

Posted 02 February 2018 - 04:44 AM

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actually pretty good being this far out---Attached File  prob24_2_f108.png   184.56KB   0 downloads



#135
Grizzcoat

Posted 02 February 2018 - 04:46 AM

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#136
Madtown

Posted 02 February 2018 - 04:54 AM

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Can't say I'm surprised. grids down to 1-2 here

#137
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 February 2018 - 05:12 AM

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1-3” in the point here, although MPX says some surprise totals may occur with ratios up to 25:1. They also called out the NAM for its stupidity saying it’s scenario is simply not plausible.

#138
james1976

Posted 02 February 2018 - 05:48 AM

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Nice posts Grizz. Hopefully trends hold. Gettin a bit more excited for Monday.
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#139
jaster220

Posted 02 February 2018 - 06:02 AM

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4" in my grid for overnight Sat-Sunday event. Would be not only another nice plow-worthy event, but would also be about 40% more snow than I had for the entire month of Feb a year ago

 

Attached File  20180202 KRMY grid icons.JPG   16.47KB   0 downloads


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 58.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#140
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 February 2018 - 06:18 AM

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Unreal. Models are unbelievably consistent on a tiny dome over me.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.5"


#141
jaster220

Posted 02 February 2018 - 06:22 AM

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Unreal. Models are unbelievably consistent on a tiny dome over me.

 

Models trolling you HARD 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 58.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#142
WBadgersW

Posted 02 February 2018 - 06:33 AM

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Well, there goes another storm. I'm sure there will be an isolate 5-6" along the lake. Otherwise a general 1-3" seems reasonable.

#143
Niko

Posted 02 February 2018 - 06:53 AM

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Forecasters are calling for a long duration of snow in SMI w snow accumulations of 4-8"+. :D



#144
NebraskaWX

Posted 02 February 2018 - 07:18 AM

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Models trolling you HARD 

 

Models: "Here's your storm! Sorry about the seven year wait!"

 

Nebraska: "Yay finally! I knew things would turn around"

 

Michigan: "Hold my beer" swoops in like:

 

9zet0gW.gif


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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#145
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 February 2018 - 07:29 AM

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Not even a single flake for here on NAM. We're surrounded by flakes, though!


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 15.5"


#146
CentralNebWeather

Posted 02 February 2018 - 07:39 AM

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Not even a single flake for here on NAM. We're surrounded by flakes, though!

Nothing should surprise us Nebraskans anymore about the weather.  I have become somewhat jaded in looking at the models.  I now just assume we will be missed.


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#147
CentralNebWeather

Posted 02 February 2018 - 07:46 AM

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12Z GFS showing a little streak of snow through Central Nebraska on Sunday.  I think I have typed that 100 times this winter.  Will this one bring anything?  Who knows?



#148
Tom

Posted 02 February 2018 - 07:50 AM

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Nothing should surprise us Nebraskans anymore about the weather.  I have become somewhat jaded in looking at the models.  I now just assume we will be missed.

12z GFS throws you a bone!

 

I think MKE up into Sheboygan area in E WI are golden to seeing 5"+ from this set up.  The lake is definitely going to be a player.  It also is looking like a stronger signal down into NE IL as well.  I'll take 3-4" all day from this first system.

 

From what I can tell, the flow turns easterly for 12-18 hours across NE IL which could be an interesting scenario if it plays out.

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#149
Tom

Posted 02 February 2018 - 07:56 AM

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GFS further N on Monday.

Bud started a thread for this system...



#150
Grizzcoat

Posted 02 February 2018 - 07:58 AM

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Bud started a thread for this system...

 

My bad...