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2018 Spring/Summer Outlook

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#51
LNK_Weather

Posted 14 March 2018 - 08:27 PM

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I have read it and still revert back to my post above lol.


Not trying to sound like Snowlover, but being blindly positive won't help much. There's not much hope for a cool, wet Summer like we had last year. We'd better have a wet next couple months or we're in trouble. Everything points towards us being death ridged come June. Plenty of room for desert air to make it up here.
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#52
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 14 March 2018 - 08:52 PM

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Not trying to sound like Snowlover, but being blindly positive won't help much. There's not much hope for a cool, wet Summer like we had last year. We'd better have a wet next couple months or we're in trouble. Everything points towards us being death ridged come June. Plenty of room for desert air to make it up here.

I have kept seeing Tom post stuff that show a wet and cool spring. Honestly as we get closer to spring seems like we keep getting wetter and wetter.


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#53
LNK_Weather

Posted 14 March 2018 - 08:57 PM

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I have kept seeing Tom post stuff that show a wet and cool spring. Honestly as we get closer to spring seems like we keep getting wetter and wetter.


Spring ≠ Summer. I like our potential severe wx pattern for April and May but I think June is when we start being ridgelocked. Hell, while we're at it I wouldn't be surprised to see measurable snow in April.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#54
snowstorm83

Posted 14 March 2018 - 09:35 PM

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Yeah, you guys need to calm down. Eastern Nebraska isn't Phoenix and I doubt we'll have a serious drought this summer. On the other hand, climate change does what it wants and we could have a very hot and dry summer, but of course climo doesn't come close to supporting that. Also it's still March LOL. 



#55
Tom

Posted 15 March 2018 - 04:08 AM

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The JMA weeklies are lining up quite well with my thoughts that during the first week of April, the colder wx begins to relax and focus more to the north, while the ridge builds in from the south.  By Week 4, things could really start to warm up as the SW ridge blossoms and this is certainly a possibility and fits the overall LRC pattern.  I'm not quite sure how strong this ridge will get, but folks in the Plains will likely get a surge of early season heat if that is to come into fruition.  On the flip side, depending on how the blocking plays out, the MW/GL's region may still be stuck in a wet/cool pattern, esp being located on the periphery of the building ridge to the west which I think will transpire April 1st-15th.  I'm just throwing this out there, but we could potentially see early season record heat in the Plains April 9th-15th.



#56
LNK_Weather

Posted 15 March 2018 - 04:18 AM

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Yeah, you guys need to calm down. Eastern Nebraska isn't Phoenix and I doubt we'll have a serious drought this summer. On the other hand, climate change does what it wants and we could have a very hot and dry summer, but of course climo doesn't come close to supporting that. Also it's still March LOL.

Not saying we'll be Phoenix. Saying hotter and dryer than normal looks to be in the picture. I hope I'm wrong but I don't think I am. Capiche?

Also, when I mention desert air, I mean the same desert air that always comes up here during heat waves. We get those when we're ridged. Where does that air come from? The desert! Obviously evapotranspiration makes it disgustingly humid in turn.
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#57
westMJim

Posted 15 March 2018 - 05:00 AM

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In the for what it is worth department.  Acuweather in their 90 day forecast for Grand Rapids does not have a 70° day for a high until May 23rd well in the recorded weather history of Grand Rapids the latest first 70° is May 3rd 1950. April 1950 is currently the 2nd coldest April in Grand Rapids history with a mean temperature of 39.6° April 1907 is the coldest April here with a mean of 36.7° April 1907 had 2.1” of snow on the 30th  May 1907 departure from average was -8.0 with frost all the way until the 28th So springs can be very cold here in the great lakes.



#58
Tom

Posted 15 March 2018 - 05:57 AM

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Here are some maps from the ECMWF seasonal...

 

Late Spring/Early Summer...

 

ps2png-gorax-green-008-95e2cf679cd58ee9b

 

 

ps2png-gorax-green-001-95e2cf679cd58ee9b

 

 

Summer...hot/dry for the most part...

 

ps2png-gorax-green-001-95e2cf679cd58ee9b

 

ps2png-gorax-green-002-95e2cf679cd58ee9b



#59
Tom

Posted 15 March 2018 - 09:50 AM

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CPC's latest take on both April and into the remainder of Spring and Summer...

 

t01.2c.gif

 

p01.2c.gif

 

Summer..."Ring of Fire" anyone???  Sheesh, if this happens, the Plains are gonna bake...that SW ridge, which has been a semi-permanent feature in this year's LRC pattern, will likely be growing early and often.  Inter-mountain west looks real dry.

 

t03.2c.gif

 

p03.2c.gif

 

 

 

 


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#60
OKwx2k4

Posted 15 March 2018 - 03:48 PM

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I don't mind being on the Northeast periphery of the SW ridge. Better than being on the humid side but that drought is going to suck.

#61
CentralNebWeather

Posted 15 March 2018 - 05:34 PM

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All depends on the location of the heat dome. If it stays south we can be on the northern perifery and get decent storms riding over the top. If it builds north, then what happened in July of 2012 rears it’s ugly head.
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#62
Tom

Posted 16 March 2018 - 04:59 AM

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I don't mind being on the Northeast periphery of the SW ridge. Better than being on the humid side but that drought is going to suck.

Your state is literally divided in half in terms of the drought!  I could see your area of E OK riding the edge of the heat dome and benefit from MCS's, although, I wouldn't bank on totally avoiding a heat wave or two during the summer.

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#63
CentralNebWeather

Posted 16 March 2018 - 05:05 AM

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Your state is literally divided in half in terms of the drought!  I could see your area of E OK riding the edge of the heat dome and benefit from MCS's, although, I wouldn't bank on totally avoiding a heat wave or two during the summer.

I sure didn't realize that much of SE Iowa is already dry.  I am in the area south of the Platte River that is dry.  Hope we can see some action in the next few days.  It did rain here for 2 minutes this morning at 6:25, I am not kidding, it rained for a whopping 2 minutes before stopping.  I just shook my head.  



#64
westMJim

Posted 16 March 2018 - 05:18 AM

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for the at least the next 10 days it looks dry even here but it also looks to be colder than average as well.



#65
NEJeremy

Posted 16 March 2018 - 05:27 AM

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Meh. I’m not that worried about the summer. All you have to do is look at the forecasts of an epic winter here this winter to realize how much of a crap shoot long range forecasts are. For all the talk of how horrible it is right now, only a small portion of the state is in the abnormally dry D0 rating and red flag warnings can actually be pretty common this time of year when you have windy, low humidity days, and the vegetation is still dead from the winter.
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#66
OKwx2k4

Posted 16 March 2018 - 12:36 PM

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Your state is literally divided in half in terms of the drought! I could see your area of E OK riding the edge of the heat dome and benefit from MCS's, although, I wouldn't bank on totally avoiding a heat wave or two during the summer.


The turnaround over my area of the state over the last 30 days has been incredible. I agree with you. It appears I'm going to get lucky enough to have chances to cool down this summer. Going to be a really rough year out west.

#67
OKwx2k4

Posted 16 March 2018 - 02:02 PM

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So, Tom, going forward, what are your thoughts on the AO/NAO during this summer? My thoughts currently are that we could see a couple of periods of pretty sharp –AO/NAO in late June-early July and again in early August if current trends hold up. If that's the case, could see cool anomalies this year across the far eastern great plains to great lakes but the contrast will be extreme between cooler eastern areas and extremely warm and dry Western areas. Just my thoughts. I'm not a summer person but I didn't have a winter and I'm having weather withdrawals. :lol:
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#68
Tom

Posted 16 March 2018 - 04:45 PM

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So, Tom, going forward, what are your thoughts on the AO/NAO during this summer? My thoughts currently are that we could see a couple of periods of pretty sharp –AO/NAO in late June-early July and again in early August if current trends hold up. If that's the case, could see cool anomalies this year across the far eastern great plains to great lakes but the contrast will be extreme between cooler eastern areas and extremely warm and dry Western areas. Just my thoughts. I'm not a summer person but I didn't have a winter and I'm having weather withdrawals. :lol:

TBH, I don't really follow the AO/NAO in the summer and I find it doesn't really have much of an impact once we are in May, esp the NAO.  The jet relaxes and its really all about pattern recognition as we move into Summer.  I would watch for the ridge out in the west and to see  how much ridging forms in central Canada.  There may be bad wild fires this season in Canada.  If this happens, this would allow for coolness to come down from the northern plains and trigger sharper cold fronts or frontal systems that can stall out. 

 

My first dab at your summer looks to start off warm to hot in June and then begin to cool mid.late July into Aug.  We may be heading towards a very similar summer like last year, but last year the ridging and dryness was centered much farther east (except for parts of the south where the hurricanes hit).  It's pretty obvious this year it is farther west into the TX Panhandle/OK/KS region.  The west coast/inter-mountain west will likely be bone dry (until the monsoon hits) and the drought across the central Plains is likely to expand or stay put throughout the summer.



#69
Tom

Posted 18 March 2018 - 03:14 AM

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The latest IRI suggesting a similar look to the CPC and might suggest a warm second half of Spring into June...

 

AMJ18_NAm_tmp.gif

 

 

AMJ18_NAm_pcp.gif

 

 

 

 

 

May/June/July period...lining up to what I mentioned above with a hot start to summer June into July, cooling thereafter...watch out for that nasty looking west/SW ridge.  I remember being in AZ last summer during the month of June breaking all sorts of record highs.  Something similar is on the table this year until the monsoon starts in July. 

 

 

MJJ18_NAm_tmp.gif

 

 

 

MJJ18_NAm_pcp.gif

 

 

Overall, the summer looks AN for the central/southern Plains but a ribbon of normal temps across the ag belt of the MW into the GL's/OV...

 

 

JJA18_NAm_tmp.gif

 

 

JJA18_NAm_pcp.gif

 

 

 

Not to get to far ahead of myself, but the IRI is also agreeing with the CFSv2 on the pattern across N Canada as we finish off Summer and head into Autumn.  Large pool of cool giving us a hint of what I think is coming next year.

 

 

JAS18_NAm_tmp.gif

 



#70
OKwx2k4

Posted 18 March 2018 - 08:06 PM

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I'd say the models and I agree pretty well at this point.

#71
jaster220

Posted 19 March 2018 - 11:12 AM

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In the for what it is worth department.  Acuweather in their 90 day forecast for Grand Rapids does not have a 70° day for a high until May 23rd well in the recorded weather history of Grand Rapids the latest first 70° is May 3rd 1950. April 1950 is currently the 2nd coldest April in Grand Rapids history with a mean temperature of 39.6° April 1907 is the coldest April here with a mean of 36.7° April 1907 had 2.1” of snow on the 30th  May 1907 departure from average was -8.0 with frost all the way until the 28th So springs can be very cold here in the great lakes.

 

1907 - The backwards spring! Uggh. Must you remind us how horrid it can be? Really hoping for once that those maps Tom posted above (CPC and IRI) are onto something when they show us breaking out of this BN rut by the 2nd half of spring. 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#72
Tom

Posted 20 March 2018 - 01:43 PM

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WxBell's Summer Outlook...

 

 

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#73
Tom

Posted 28 March 2018 - 09:49 AM

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I'm seeing a lot of similarities for this summer in comparison to the Summer of '13.  If you take a look at the pattern from Mar-May '13 which was a ridiculously chilly to cold Spring, and quite wet, this Spring is certainly showing signs of heading that way.

 

MAM13TDeptUS.png

 

MAM13PDeptUS.png

 

 

Knowing the LRC and given the pattern moving forward over the next 2-3 weeks and beyond, these maps above may certainly come close to matching up by the time we close out Spring.  Just look at the warm/dry parts of the CONUS near Cali/SW and almost identical dryness in the KS/TX Panhandle region compared to the current pattern we are in.  The bulls eye of AN precip centered over the MW and somewhat across the App's looks similar to this year thus far except the bulls eye this year is across the southern Plains in E OK/Texarkana up into the OV.

 

Now, look at where the CFSv2 is trending for the rest of Spring into June...dagger of coolness and wetness across the middle of the nation...watch out for the Canadian wild fires this year and some pretty sun sets from a NW Flow pattern that will probably funnel smoke into our skies.

 

 

 

usT2mSeaInd1.gif

 

 

 

usPrecSeaInd1.gif

 

 

These ideas fall in line with what I'm thinking at the moment with a biased warm to hot start to Summer down in the southern Plains up into the KS region.  Things begin to switch around mid summer into late summer and we may very well see a cool to cold August across the MW corn belts.  Low solar, pattern recognition, LRC, neutral ENSO and my intuition are saying that this should be an ideal summer if you don't like the heat/humidity, except down south and parts of the Plains.  I'm sure there will be some days of heat but heat waves won't be common across the MW/GL's/OV.


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#74
Tom

Posted 30 March 2018 - 10:37 AM

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CFSv2 looks ideal for a hot/dry late Spring into Summer across parts of Canada.  I could already smell the wild fires this season and the media frenzy. Anyway, look out for the west coast ridge along with the Canadian and EC ridge that may work in tandem to carve a troughy look across the central CONUS this summer.  Ring of Fire pattern looks ideal coming out of the Rockies into the northern Plains/MW/GL's.  Plains bake quick in June but trend more towards normal in July and BN in Aug is my final call for this summer.  Summer of '08, '09, '13 & '14 look similar to this one.

 

usT2mMonInd2.gif

 

usT2mMonInd3.gif


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#75
Tom

Posted 30 March 2018 - 10:55 AM

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If that west coast ridge hooks over the top along with the Canadian ridge...the cool will rule and precip will be plentiful. Just hoping those folks in NE can be close enough to the precip and escape the early torch which I’m expecting.
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#76
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 March 2018 - 02:47 PM

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These are actual numbers from August 08 and 2009. Just crazy. Repeat? Yes please.

Attached File  mcd(1).php   5.27KB   7 downloads
Attached File  mcd.php   5.22KB   2 downloads

Yes. That is a heating degree day in August in Oklahoma.
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#77
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 March 2018 - 03:02 PM

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Also, with 2013 being a heavy favorite by both of us, it's hard to find a crazier year for me than that. May 3 snowstorm followed above avg temps for 10 days, severe wx on the 15-16th of May, then an EF-5 tornado in Moore on May 20th. Great summer after it though. Crazy wild month for me.

#78
Tom

Posted 30 March 2018 - 03:22 PM

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Also, with 2013 being a heavy favorite by both of us, it's hard to find a crazier year for me than that. May 3 snowstorm followed above avg temps for 10 days, severe wx on the 15-16th of May, then an EF-5 tornado in Moore on May 20th. Great summer after it though. Crazy wild month for me.


I remember that day in Moore like it was yesterday. You had a snowstorm in early May?? That’s cray, cray!
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#79
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 March 2018 - 05:36 PM

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I remember that day in Moore like it was yesterday. You had a snowstorm in early May?? That’s cray, cray!

Yeah. Most was gone by the time I woke to see it but I still have pictures somewhere of it. There were measurements taken of up to 6" that morning. Fast forward to December 3 and I had my first winter storm warning that day. I'll have to find my pictures from that month. Have them stored somewhere but not sure where anymore. My uncle runs Draper water treatment facility in OKC and they watched the tornado all the way across Moore. It literally stopped and roped out just before it hit them. Directly wiped out one of the places I lived as a child when it crossed I-35 onto Howard Ave. If anyone wonders why severe weather stresses me a bit, that's why. May "99,"11, and "13 are three great reasons. Seems like I always have family in harm's way about 2 months out of the year.

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#80
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 March 2018 - 05:54 PM

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If you put a dot where the blue and black lines cross I-35/77, I used to live there.
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#81
Tom

Posted 01 April 2018 - 03:05 AM

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The latest CanSIPS agreeing that a cold April is on tap, with lingering chill across the northern tier while the south begins to warm late Spring setting the stage for a hot start to summer....

 

cansips_T2ma_namer_1.png

 

cansips_T2ma_namer_2.png



#82
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 April 2018 - 04:44 AM

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I think Spring breaks into here in around 2 weeks. This cold pattern definitely won't be around here forever.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#83
Tom

Posted 01 April 2018 - 05:45 AM

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I think Spring breaks into here in around 2 weeks. This cold pattern definitely won't be around here forever.

Ya, I agree to some degree, that your region will see the break first, but not out here towards the GL's as the pesky -NAO pattern doesn't look like it will escape anytime soon.  Sucks really.



#84
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 April 2018 - 07:11 AM

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Wouldn't mind seeing that April map repeat again in about July or August. Really would be happy with about 2 weeks of sunny and 75 though. Looks like I'm in the most bi-polar spot on the map for the foreseeable future though.

#85
westMJim

Posted 01 April 2018 - 07:22 AM

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With March being the 1st month of spring I will place this here.

 

March recap at Grand Rapids, MI

The mean temperature for the month was 34.0° and that is -1.3° below average the average High was 43.3° and the average low was 25.4° the warmest high was just 56° on the 18th and the coldest it got all month was just 17° on the 10th Just 5 days reached 50° or better and only 3 nights stayed above 32° there was just 4.9” of snow fall (8.3” is average) and just 1.16” of total precipitation. So the month was a cool and some what dry month with no major extremes.



#86
Tom

Posted 03 April 2018 - 05:12 AM

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My concerns this summer for sustained coolness and a wetter overall look is what happens in the NE PAC or the west coast.  If we are to use the years posted earlier that come into play for this summer season, the CFSv2 is certainly trending that way of late.  I'm not going to buy into the real cool summer just yet for parts of the Plains, but like last year, an overall dry Autumn/Winter turned very wet in mid/late Spring.  Will this happen again this season?

 

Here are the latest trends for May via the CFSv2...notice the trough replaced by the NE PAC ridge which was my concern in this part of the region to fulfill a cooler to near avg summer for our sub forum overall.  If you have this same pattern roll through summer and connect with the ridge in Canada, there will almost certainly be a trough across the central CONUS.

 

With that being said, here is the 3-month summer 500mb pattern...

 

cfs-mon_01_z500aMean_month_namer_2.png

 

 

cfs-mon_01_apcpna_multimonth_namer_2.png

 

cfs-mon_01_T2maMean_month_namer_2.png

Attached Files


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#87
Tom

Posted 03 April 2018 - 05:27 AM

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Unfortunately, yesterday's Euro Weeklies show the -EPO pattern that the CFSv2 is indicating as we get into May...not only that, but high lat blocking continues...

 

ecmwf_meps_epo_2018040200.png

 

 

ecmwf_meps_nao_2018040200.png

 

ecmwf_meps_ao_2018040200.png



#88
jaster220

Posted 03 April 2018 - 08:50 AM

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Ya, I agree to some degree, that your region will see the break first, but not out here towards the GL's as the pesky -NAO pattern doesn't look like it will escape anytime soon.  Sucks really.

 

Was noted elsewhere that this current -NAO scheme parallels 2013 extremely well and that lasted til mid-April with a lag effect til month's end. Ofc, 2014 was even colder than this year post Valentine's Day, but the huge difference was the 2 feet of snow that I also scored during that period. Much easier to take when there's at least something to get excited for  ;)


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#89
OKwx2k4

Posted 04 April 2018 - 09:44 PM

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Year without a summer? Starting to look like it. That ridge is slowly getting beaten back to the west as we roll forward in the models. I'm okay with it but I sure would like for it to at least get to 70 for about 2 weeks somewhere in here without a foot of rain following it or 30mph winds every single day. I'm already fast forwarding a bit to late summer and from where I sit, we have some interesting things setting up down the road if it all works out.
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#90
Tom

Posted 05 April 2018 - 03:14 AM

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Year without a summer? Starting to look like it. That ridge is slowly getting beaten back to the west as we roll forward in the models. I'm okay with it but I sure would like for it to at least get to 70 for about 2 weeks somewhere in here without a foot of rain following it or 30mph winds every single day. I'm already fast forwarding a bit to late summer and from where I sit, we have some interesting things setting up down the road if it all works out.

You mean, "year without 95F+ for days" down by you?  How would that sound?  If the wet pattern continues, chances are in your favor.  Isn't a heat wave categorized as 3 or more days of 95F+ temps down by you?  Up here it is 90F+ for 3 or more days and I don't see that happening around here this year.  If 



#91
Tom

Posted 05 April 2018 - 04:01 AM

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A lot of research has been done on the impacts of the U.S. climate after the episode of the "warm Blob" in the NE PAC.  If the CFSv2 trends are right, it is noteworthy to see what the model is showing in this region during the summer.  Look at the recent trends and where it is going for early Autumn.  This would be a dramatic flip in the SST's and would favor a cooler/wetter summer overall across our sub forum.  We also see these warm waters via the CanSIPS but this model IMO is way to warm for summer.

 

cansips_sstaMean_noice_month_npac_3.png

 

Interestingly, these maps look quite similar when you look at the Maunder Minimum temp reconstruction maps during solar minimums.  Are we heading towards a climate shift that has nothing to do with CO2???  Should we get used to these warm waters in this part of the world???  Lot's of questions to be answered over the next 5-10 years.

 

 

 

Attached Files



#92
LNK_Weather

Posted 05 April 2018 - 05:51 AM

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It'd be a miracle Summer for us if we don't hit 100. Tom, can you make that happen please?
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#93
OKwx2k4

Posted 09 April 2018 - 03:24 AM

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You mean, "year without 95F+ for days" down by you? How would that sound? If the wet pattern continues, chances are in your favor. Isn't a heat wave categorized as 3 or more days of 95F+ temps down by you? Up here it is 90F+ for 3 or more days and I don't see that happening around here this year. If


With the first decent ridge of the warm season appearing to grip the western part of my state, (and most likely destroying a large portion of the severe weather season in the process) I'd say odd of any meaningful heatwaves east of I-35 are dropping significantly each day.

I'll have to refresh my memory on the exact measurements that entail a true heatwave here but my quick guess is 95+ for 3 or more days or 90+ with dewpoints of 60+ for 3 or more days. I'm curious now as to what is correct here though so don't quote me on that. I hate summer but I'm trying to become more interested/involved in regards to it.

#94
OKwx2k4

Posted 09 April 2018 - 03:30 AM

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A lot of research has been done on the impacts of the U.S. climate after the episode of the "warm Blob" in the NE PAC. If the CFSv2 trends are right, it is noteworthy to see what the model is showing in this region during the summer. Look at the recent trends and where it is going for early Autumn. This would be a dramatic flip in the SST's and would favor a cooler/wetter summer overall across our sub forum. We also see these warm waters via the CanSIPS but this model IMO is way to warm for summer.

cansips_sstaMean_noice_month_npac_3.png

Interestingly, these maps look quite similar when you look at the Maunder Minimum temp reconstruction maps during solar minimums. Are we heading towards a climate shift that has nothing to do with CO2??? Should we get used to these warm waters in this part of the world??? Lot's of questions to be answered over the next 5-10 years.

If I am not mistaken, 2013 was a failed attempt at this. My historical research has shown that late 1970s and late 1910s cold periods are directly preceeded by this. If this area stays warm, continents will all cool.

What is noteworthy is how early we are in solar minimum to be seeing this. 2013 was nearly 4.5 years post minimum and we are already here again. That should be a huge clue.
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#95
Tom

Posted 09 April 2018 - 04:08 AM

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The latest long lead SST CA Forecast suggesting a wet and warm summer for most of us...

 

caprec_anom.2.png

 

cat2m_anom.0.png

 

 

 

Of note, this model is also seeing the warm blob in the NE PAC along with an ENSO neutral PAC...

 

casst_anom.2.png

 

 

 

Finally, the warm biased NMME model continues to show a hot/dry summer across the sub forum...

 

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png

 

 

 

NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season2.png



#96
LNK_Weather

Posted 09 April 2018 - 06:58 AM

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If we end up like last Summer and are "above normal" overall but there are no real big heat waves then fine with me.


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#97
Tom

Posted 10 April 2018 - 04:10 AM

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Typically, as we get deeper into May, a -NAO/-AO have a different effect on temps across the lower 48 and shift troughs/cooler weather more towards the west/SW which may give us a clue as to whether we should believe the CFSv2.  Take a look at the recent trends for May...IMO, its got the right idea....

 

CFSv2.z700.20180410.201805.gif

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20180410.201805.gif

 

 

 

CFSv2.NaPrec.20180410.201805.gif

 

Here is the historical data for a -NAO regime in May...

 

 

 

 

-AO in May...

 

 

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#98
LNK_Weather

Posted 10 April 2018 - 05:44 AM

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Typically, as we get deeper into May, a -NAO/-AO have a different effect on temps across the lower 48 and shift troughs/cooler weather more towards the west/SW which may give us a clue as to whether we should believe the CFSv2.  Take a look at the recent trends for May...IMO, its got the right idea....

That's a good look for severe weather and means that the growing season could finally start. Too bad it's CFSv2.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#99
Tom

Posted 10 April 2018 - 05:47 AM

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That's a good look for severe weather and means that the growing season could finally start. Too bad it's CFSv2.

Just curious, can you see the NAO/AO?



#100
LNK_Weather

Posted 10 April 2018 - 06:14 AM

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Just curious, can you see the NAO/AO?

On Euro weeklies, NAO/AO tanks around May 7-11. That's around the time I think we may see a potent cold snap capable of bringing late freezes. Also a pretty big drop near the end of April. Mid-May I believe is when warm weather is finally locked in. I love cold cloudy weather and all, but I'm tired of seeing empty fields.


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM