August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Total precip for Saturday per the 12Z WRF:

 

[Front Ranger]

I’m pretty sure that place is “dry”. I know people that have been there and they shipped some booze in to drink at their hotel. Kind of a tourism killer.

 

No kidding. Vortex watching isn't nearly as fun if you're not smashed.

[MossMan]

Total precip for Saturday per the 12Z WRF:

 

Looks pretty wet for me still!

[Jesse]

True. Many comedians are actually depressed, psychologically damaged individuals. Which explains their surprisingly high suicide rate.

 

Yeesh.

[Jesse]

Total precip for Saturday per the 12Z WRF:

 

Nice to see some decent totals at our latitude. Even if it’s mostly in the mountains.

[ShawniganLake]

[Front Ranger]

Euro looking hott.

[Jesse]

Euro looking hott.

Scorching through hour 48.

[Phil]

Image from Anthony Masiello on Twitter.

 

Some incredibly low heights across Greenland this summer. Something has definitely flipped up there.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Image from Anthony Masiello on Twitter.

 

Some incredibly low heights across Greenland this summer. Some pretty bizarre stuff going on up there. Big time vortex.

 

When is the last time that thing was persistent for this long?

[Phil]

When is the last time that thing was persistent for this long?

On a full-year basis, this is unprecedented. It used to happen a lot more in J/A/S, and less-so at other times of the year, but so far this year it’s been almost a semipermanent feature. Will have to see how it evolves over the next 2 months. Solar minimum/BDC state does favor a flip into -NAO this winter.

 

As recently as 2016 that entire region was torching into oblivion. Now it’s the most prolific icebox on the planet, relative to average. At least for now.

[MossMan]

The big chill!

[Deweydog]

The big chill!

[Kayla]

Not surprising the Euro shows near 90 still at PDX on Friday. Could end up being another 6+ day 90's stretch.

 

Good news is Sunday looks a bit cooler!

[Front Ranger]

The cool weather and rain appear to be entirely focused on Saturday now.  

 

Friday is still warm and sunny (particularly up here) and Sunday is pretty warm (but not hot) and sunny again.

 

Friday looks like your typical marine push to end a heatwave day, which means it should be much cooler (relative to normal) the further south you go.

[Front Ranger]

Not surprising the Euro shows near 90 still at PDX on Friday. Could end up being another 6+ day 90's stretch.

 

Good news is Sunday looks a bit cooler!

 

Models have gone back and forth with the timing of the ULL moving in. A difference of 4 hours could mean the difference between an 88 degree high at PDX or a 78 degree high.

 

Would not be shocking to see some places further north pull off sub-70 degree highs on Saturday.

[Kayla]

Models have gone back and forth with the timing of the ULL moving in. A difference of 4 hours could mean the difference between an 88 degree high at PDX or a 78 degree high.

 

I almost always favor the slower timing with an ULL. Hotter on the front end (Friday) cooler on the back end (Sunday).

[Deweydog]

Models have gone back and forth with the timing of the ULL moving in. A difference of 4 hours could mean the difference between an 88 degree high at PDX or a 78 degree high.

 

Would not be shocking to see some places further north pull off sub-70 degree highs on Saturday.

Forecast contest!!!

[Front Ranger]

Euro continues the trend of lower heights and cooler heat next week.

[Kayla]

Euro continues the trend of lower heights and cooler heat next week.

 

Pretty darn fast rebound right back up to near or at 100 on Monday and Tuesday at PDX though.

 

Pretty incredible after this week.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty darn fast rebound right back up to near or at 100 on Monday and Tuesday at PDX though.

 

Pretty incredible after this week.

 

With heights below 585 both days per this run, it's hard for me to believe they'll be anywhere near 100.

[Front Ranger]

The LR ensembles do suggest that August will remain warm for the foreseeable future, FWIW.

[TT-SEA]

With heights below 585 both days per this run, it's hard for me to believe they'll be anywhere near 100.

12Z ECMWF map shows 98 and 100 at PDX on Monday and Tuesday. It will be close.

[Kayla]

With heights below 585 both days per this run, it's hard for me to believe they'll be anywhere near 100.

 

Just compared to the 00z. It's actually quite a bit hotter on the surface. 95 and 94 verses now 98 and 100. Stronger offshore flow on this run.

[Kayla]

Well...this run sucks.

 

#isitfallyet

[Front Ranger]

12Z ECMWF map shows 98 and 100 at PDX on Monday and Tuesday. It will be close.

 

Seems odd with that pattern. How many instances are there of PDX hitting 100 with heights below 585?

 

It doesn't even really look like a pattern that would produce strong offshore flow.

 

Yesterday, heights were around 589 and PDX hit 95. Granted, there was some smoke, but that seems more typical. Of course, I know heights are just one factor in how hot it gets.

[TT-SEA]

Total precip per the 12Z ECMWF:

 

[Phil]

Pretty darn fast rebound right back up to near or at 100 on Monday and Tuesday at PDX though.

 

Pretty incredible after this week.

Phil effect lag. Same thing happened last year. Pattern flipped warm during my visit and stayed that way for the subsequent month following my departure. And it flipped troughy/wet here while I was gone both times.

 

Now that I’m back on the east coast, I suspect Mother Nature will figure that out and begin reshuffling the deck towards ridgier times here, and more troughing out west. Might take a few weeks but it’s probably a safe bet.

[Phil]

BTW, in the three weeks that I was gone, my station only recorded one day above 90*F. It was historically cool by our standards.

 

Since I’ve returned, all 3 days have been above 90*F with heat indices above 100*F. I’m telling you, the Phil effect is real. I literally attract heat ridges wherever I go. And apparently I also leave them behind, spinning in my wake.

[Jesse]

I want attention too guys!

 

I also traveled places this summer, and weather occurred at MOST of them.

[Jesse]

Just watching for something.

Feels like some sort of cool pattern that lasts more than a few days is inevitable in the next month or so. Especially considering how things have been going since late April.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Feels like some sort of cool pattern that lasts more than a few days is inevitable in the next month or so. Especially considering how things have been going since late April.

 

Don't get your hopes up.  We've seen this movie before.

[Phil]

I want attention too guys!

 

I also traveled places this summer, and weather occurred at MOST of them.

Uh oh. What happened at the remaining few?

[Phil]

[Front Ranger]

Don't get your hopes up. We've seen this movie before.

At least the trough this weekend didn't fade away. Will bring at least a little rain to some areas that desperately need it.

 

#smallvictories

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Too smokey out here. I'd rather have 80s and clean air than what's going on right now. I'm looking forward to the rain.

[James Jones]

Seems odd with that pattern. How many instances are there of PDX hitting 100 with heights below 585?

 

It doesn't even really look like a pattern that would produce strong offshore flow.

 

Yesterday, heights were around 589 and PDX hit 95. Granted, there was some smoke, but that seems more typical. Of course, I know heights are just one factor in how hot it gets.

 

I think heights were about 585 when they hit 100 last month. They also somehow got to 100 on this day:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1982/us0618.php

[GobBluth]

I think heights were about 585 when they hit 100 last month. They also somehow got to 100 on this day:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1982/us0618.php

Low dropping into Montana is usually a recipe for Portland to overachieve on temps with the offshore.

[Front Ranger]

I think heights were about 585 when they hit 100 last month. They also somehow got to 100 on this day:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1982/us0618.php

 

I'm sure it's possible. But I'm still skeptical with this pattern, especially how it's been trending since yesterday.

 

If it were one week later in August, I'd say there's no way that produces triple digits at PDX, but we're still in the dog days until about the 20th or so.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Smokiest day yet. Ugh...