November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Esquimalt]

This is an interesting read that doesn't spell anything good about the upcoming winter. 

 

http://raleighwxmodels.com/awhuffma/Winter/Winter2018-19Forecast.pdf

[TT-SEA]

This setup is unbelievable. The folks at SEA are saying this is unlike any other traces on record at that station.

 

I guess we can now add November 1, 2018 to the depressingly long list of devastating regional floods. 

 

 

Nobody said the rain was unbelievable.   I said it rained hard for a couple hours this morning.  It did!     

 

Its a run-of-the-mill warm conveyor belt set up... with the usual distinct rain shadowing.  

 

Just reported what is happening here.     And obviously there can be some river flooding in the area even if SEA gets no rain at all.    I think you understand the rain shadow.

 

[Omegaraptor]

I assume that is for the 11,000' level.

It’s actually for Timberline Lodge I believe. And it looks like it was possibly erroneous as it was changed.

[TT-SEA]

I post for 2 weeks about the sunshine and warm temps.  

 

Then report a period of heavy rain this morning and unusual darkness for a couple hours afterward.   And now somehow I said it was record-setting rain and unbelievable and incomprehensible?  Where did I say that?  

 

Its November being November... as I said.  Are we not allowed to report what is happening?  

 

How does a couple simple observations (without even an opinion) about the actual weather turn into in all day discussion?   Just let it be.   

[TT-SEA]

This rain can stop anytime now...we are good...for at least the next two months!

 

 

It was a very wet week to end October...

 

[Front Ranger]

The darkness right now here is sort of surreal even for November.    

 

No one experiences the darkness like Tim.

[TT-SEA]

No one experiences the darkness like Tim.

It was crazy dark.

 

Here is another observation... its pretty nice out right now. Warm and now dry and a little windy and just the normal November dark which is much brighter than it was a couple hours ago.

[TT-SEA]

Honestly hard to tell that happened today.   It is incredibly dark for being early afternoon.   No doubt the darkest day of the year.    About as dark as it can be here for the middle of the day.  

 

 

Nice improvement since lunch time. 

 

[Front Ranger]

12Z EPS says we should completely disregard the operational run.  

 

Blocking episode of some sort is looking likely, but cold will probably be further east.

[Front Ranger]

This setup is unbelievable. The folks at SEA are saying this is unlike any other traces on record at that station.

 

I guess we can now add November 1, 2018 to the depressingly long list of devastating regional floods. 

 

Also the long list of times this year when SEA was miraculously spared the monsoon affecting "everywhere else".

[Deweydog]

Hard to believe it's already November. Feels like it was October just yesterday.

[MossMan]

It was crazy dark.

 

Here is another observation... its pretty nice out right now. Warm and now dry and a little windy and just the normal November dark which is much brighter than it was a couple hours ago.

Still pouring up here.

[Esquimalt]

12Z EPS says we should completely disregard the operational run.  

Maps?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

240 hours is still fantasyland on the Euro. And mid November pretty much is garbage if you're south of Whatcom County or west of Bonneville Dam. And a cold spell in that timeframe is a pretty token achievement in a Nino that lacks any further cold airmasses down the road (2014, 1986, 1977, 1930).

We are fukt if it happens before Thanksgiving. God D****T.

 

Honestly, niños have often been a big snoozer in Eugene/Springfield because niño-type backdoor events rarely impact areas south of McMinnville. Like 1997/98 for example.

[Deweydog]

F******************k.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is much wetter for Sunday.

[BLI snowman]

Also the long list of times this year when SEA was miraculously spared the monsoon affecting "everywhere else".

 

The 0.02" washout at OLM confirms this.

[BLI snowman]

We are fukt if it happens before Thanksgiving. God D****T.

 

Honestly, niños have often been a big snoozer in Eugene/Springfield because niño-type backdoor events rarely impact areas south of McMinnville. Like 1997/98 for example.

 

Perhaps no tragedy is bigger than BSF turning into BNF for a couple of days.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Fairly underwhelming druncle run. That closed low going into Cali is interesting. Keep the cold away for now.

[ShawniganLake]

Meh, it's only the best model we have available on the planet in that timeframe. Outlier!

Maybe it’ll work out but the euro really likes to stand those blocking ridges up tall in the long range and then dig stuff back west more than what usually happens in reality

[ShawniganLake]

Honestly hard to tell that happened today. It is incredibly dark for being early afternoon. No doubt the darkest day of the year. About as dark as it can be here for the middle of the day.

 

It’s shining here, so I can confirm it is still up there.

[Esquimalt]

The clown range on the drunkle features some lowland flurries

[ShawniganLake]

There is a tropical connection to the rain here right now. Its been coming up from around Hawaii for the past 4 days.

 

 

 

It is also warm and humid by November standards here.

 

Every person in the PNW on this forum would say it was heavy rain here this morning. It was coming down about as hard as it ever does for a couple hours.

That would likely be reported as heavy rain up here. Outside of brief convective downpours, 1”/hr type rates are pretty much unheard of around here.

[TT-SEA]

It’s shining here, so I can confirm it is still up there.

 

 

Good to know!   

[TT-SEA]

The 0.02" washout at OLM confirms this.

 

 

Justin needs a little lesson in PNW geography and how the rain shadow works with a warm conveyor belt coming in from the W and NW.  

 

Heavy rain in some places and almost none in other areas!   Reporting conditions at a person's specific location does not change this fact.       

 

As a refresher course... here is a post from Cliff Mass from yesterday.   The same wet areas got more heavy today and now we have the potential for river flooding.   All the while... SEA got almost nothing.   Go figure!

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-olympics-protect-puget-sound-from.html

 

The Olympics Mountains play a critical role in the meteorology of the Puget Sound region and this week it is shielding us from most of the moisture associated with a series of modest atmospheric rivers.

 

But our friends on the western sides of the Olympics and Cascades will not be as lucky with substantial rain expected.

 

During the past several days, the winds aloft have been westerly (from the west), so we have been in the rainshadow of the Olympics, even though a strong, moist flow has approached the region.

 

During the past 72 hrs, while Tacoma to Everett has only gotten around .10 inches, locations on the western slopes of the Cascades have "enjoyed"  2-4 inches of rain, with 1-2 inches on the western side of the coastal mountains.

[Omegaraptor]

 

Just updated my climate table for this year. Precipitation days over 1mm are from Wunderground, everything else is NOAA. I would attach this to my signature, but I can't figure out how.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

64 with calm winds and a little damp but no precip. Still haven't gotten below 35 in town.  Hopefully we can get that coldest high down at some point.

[Guest Dome Buster]

The 18z is my religion.

[Jesse]

68 at PDX. Not a daily record but a pretty warm start to November.

[ShawniganLake]

68 at PDX. Not a daily record but a pretty warm start to November.

Nov 1 1949 was a warm one.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nov 1 1949 was a warm one.

 

ANALogs Gone Wild 2: Slides West

[Jesse]

Nov 1 1949 was a warm one.

January 2019 should be too.

[TT-SEA]

Early November warmth is a good sign for December.  

[BLI snowman]

Early November warmth is a good sign for December.  

 

SEA's November 1-10 record highs are from 1981, 1970, 2010, 1949, 1960, 1976, 2008, 1987, and 1997.

 

One great December, a couple decent ones, and a number of forgettable ones in there.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Surprised Rob isn't back. Isnt he usually here by now?

[Esquimalt]

Half an inch of rain here so far today.  Not bad.  

[Jesse]

SEA's November 1-10 record highs are from 1981, 1970, 2010, 1949, 1960, 1976, 2008, 1987, and 1997.

 

One great December, a couple decent ones, and a number of forgettable ones in there.

Yeah, not really a strong correlation.

[ShawniganLake]

Surprised Rob isn't back. Isnt he usually here by now?

He only shows up if something interesting appears in the models.

[ShawniganLake]

Half an inch of rain here so far today. Not bad.

One of those rare days when we see more shadowing than you guys.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, not really a strong correlation.

 

 

2008 and 2010 stand out in my memory... cold and snow soon followed.  

 

And of course there is 1949.