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June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

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#51
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:16 AM

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Always about you. I would have posted that even if you were still in the Alps somewhere.


I know. There were little jabs at the cold freaks sprinkled throughout here the entire time I was gone. Pretty sad how much we occupy your head space.

Also sad you don’t have the ability to simply enjoy the weather you like without turning it into the ridiculous, anxiety ridden PR campaign you have going here 24/7.

#52
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:25 AM

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I know. There were little jabs at the cold freaks sprinkled throughout here the entire time I was gone. Pretty sad how much we occupy your head space.

 

 

Always about you.   Paranoid.      :lol:

 

I usually just post about things I like or find interesting.    



#53
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:27 AM

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Also sad you don’t have the ability to simply enjoy the weather you like without turning it into the ridiculous, anxiety ridden PR campaign you have going here 24/7.

 

:rolleyes:

 

OK.    



#54
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:28 AM

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:rolleyes:

OK.


That is 100% accurate. :)

#55
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:31 AM

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The only rivalry that matches the Phil-Tim rivalry...the Tim-Jesse rivalry!
Sun is just starting to come out here as of 12:30pm. Up to 61 degrees.

#56
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:31 AM

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That is 100% accurate. :)

You have no idea what I enjoy. Stop worrying about me and taking everything so personally. You are exhausting.

You could have just taken the ensemble map post as more information... but not you.

And here we are... so nice to have you back!

#57
Phil

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:33 AM

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Not only does the 12Z ECMWF only show a little rain... its also very ridgy in the 8-10 day period. It does not even look like a variable pattern at that point... there is no trough lurking to the west.


There actually is a ULL to the N/NW that will drop in after D10 (probably D12-13) but the model is likely having feedback problems upstream, hence the moat of high heights cloaking it locally. This should resolve, but overall it’s not a stagnant pattern until a more amplified waveform initiates around the solstice.

I think I mentioned this a few weeks ago, but the intraseasonal component of the tropical forcing will propagate to the WPAC during the second half of this month, and/or into early July, which will (initially) increase the heatwave risk during that timeframe. It stands out clearly to me.

But with the SIOD-IPWP curve inverted relative to recent years, I’m also thinking a legitimate cool pattern could follow the heatwave this time, once convection leaves the WPAC and that GOA vortex gets cranking. Whenever that ends up happening (timing is hard to pin down right now) but there should be a decent 10-15 day cool/troughy stretch in the midsummer period this year, after the heatwave immediately preceding it.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#58
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:34 AM

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You have no idea what I enjoy. Stop worrying about me and taking everything so personally. You are exhausting.

You could have just taken the ensemble map post as more information... but not you.

And here we are... so nice to have you back!


I’m sure it’s very nice having me back. You absolutely live for this kind of back and forth. The only mistake anyone ever makes here is trying to match your infinite ability to perpetuate it. :lol:

#59
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:35 AM

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I’m sure it’s very nice having me back. You absolutely live for this stuff. :lol:


No.

Always about you.

#60
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:39 AM

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No.

Always about you.


Ironic. If this place ever deviated from being completely centered around your opinion I think you would have some sort of panic attack. VERY important to you, as illustrated by thousands and thousands of posts.

#61
Phil

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:39 AM

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There actually is a ULL to the N/NW that will drop in after D10 (probably D12-13) but the model is likely having feedback problems upstream, hence the moat of high heights cloaking it locally. This should resolve, but overall it’s not a stagnant pattern until a more amplified waveform initiates around the solstice.

I think I mentioned this a few weeks ago, but the intraseasonal component of the tropical forcing will propagate to the WPAC during the second half of this month, and/or into early July, which will (initially) increase the heatwave risk during that timeframe. It stands out clearly to me.

But with the SIOD-IPWP curve inverted relative to recent years, I’m also thinking a legitimate cool pattern could follow the heatwave this time, once convection leaves the WPAC and that GOA vortex gets cranking. Whenever that ends up happening (timing is hard to pin down right now) but there should be a decent 10-15 day cool/troughy stretch in the midsummer period this year, after the heatwave immediately preceding it.


To sum it up:

Variability until mid/late June, then a heatwave pattern as forcing propagates over the WPAC, then a crash into a 2011-ish pattern for a few weeks.

Analogs are indicative of another heatwave in mid/late August, but I can’t see that far ahead dynamically yet.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#62
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:41 AM

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Ironic. If this place ever deviated from being completely centered around your opinion I think you would have some sort panic attack. VERY important to you, as illustrated by thousands and thousands of posts.


You have spent all day moaning about your hurt feelings related to an ensemble mean map. Seems logical. :)

#63
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:43 AM

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You have spent all day moaning about your hurt feelings related to an ensemble mean map. Seems logical. :)


It does suck that there is nowhere to talk about/track one of my passions online without being constantly harassed. But yeah should definitely be used to it by now.

#64
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:44 AM

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To sum it up:

Variability until mid/late June, then a heatwave pattern as forcing propagates over the WPAC, then a crash into a 2011-ish pattern for a few weeks.

Analogs are indicative of another heatwave in mid/late August, but I can’t see that far ahead dynamically yet.


I can't see anything 2011-like coming this summer. But mid-July through September of 2011 was just about complete perfection here in my opinion.

#65
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:45 AM

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It does suck that there is nowhere to talk about/track one of my passions online without being constantly harassed. But yeah should definitely be used to it by now.

 

 

No one is harassing you.   I did not even offer an opinion or say anything about your post.   That is just being paranoid.   As usual.



#66
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:50 AM

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No one is harassing you. I did not even offer an opinion or say anything about your post. That is just being paranoid. As usual.


Phil is so out to get me.
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#67
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:51 AM

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Phil is so out to get me.


He specifically tells me that pretty much every day. Its sort of cute. :)
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#68
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:53 AM

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He specifically tells me that pretty much every day. Its sort of cute. :)


It’s a straight up witch hunt.
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#69
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:55 AM

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It’s a straight up witch hunt.

 

 

Not at all.  

 

But you seem to feel that way. 



#70
Phil

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:58 AM

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He specifically tells me that pretty much every day. Its sort of cute. :)


I wouldn’t say every day, but there’s no point in denying something that’s subliminally obvious with respect to everyone involved in these back and forth battles. ;)
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Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#71
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:58 AM

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This post is about Jesse.   I have no interest in tracking weather.

 

The 12Z EPS agrees with the operational run at day 10.    This is a personal attack on Jesse.   Its all about him.    :wub:

 

eps-z500a-noram-41-2.png



#72
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 12:01 PM

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This post is not about Jesse.    I attacked him viciously in the previous post.

 

The 12Z EPS shows more zonal flow towards the end of the run.   No signs of any heat.

 

eps-z500a-noram-57.png



#73
Phil

Posted 01 June 2019 - 12:06 PM

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This post is about Jesse. I have no interest in tracking weather.

The 12Z EPS agrees with the operational run at day 10. This is a personal attack on Jesse. Its all about him. :wub:

eps-z500a-noram-41-2.png


If you didn’t have access to any images after D10, in your mind, could you run that pattern forward based on pattern recognition? If so, how do you think it would evolve?

That’s the question I ask myself before I look further into a model run or an ensemble mean (aside from whatever physical parameters/external forcings might be affecting the model).

I think if you and I ever met in person, most of our misunderstandings with respect to our interpretations of ensemble means would be remedied (I’m not saying that I disagree with your above take, Tim..I think in this case your interpretation is correct).
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#74
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 June 2019 - 12:07 PM

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I am just posting to up my post count, got a long way to go.... blah blah blah blah blah

#75
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 12:10 PM

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Constructive

#76
Phil

Posted 01 June 2019 - 12:12 PM

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I can't see anything 2011-like coming this summer. But mid-July through September of 2011 was just about complete perfection here in my opinion.


Not as a background state. It would be much shorter in duration.

But there are signs of some highly anomalous intraseasonal cycles in the middle latitude wavetrains coming up after the solstice. Not a certainty of course, and we’ll need to watch the wavenumber and frequency in the VP200 anomalies first, but the idea of midsummer whiplash is growing on me.

Heatwave to onshore onslaught? Time will tell.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#77
Requiem

Posted 01 June 2019 - 12:19 PM

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Mmmmmmm....what’s the tea, sisters? 👑🎶👻

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.


#78
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 12:25 PM

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I am just posting to up my post count, got a long way to go.... blah blah blah blah blah


I literally never think about post count. Strange comment.

#79
High Desert Mat?

Posted 01 June 2019 - 12:28 PM

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I literally never think about post count. Strange comment.


Paranoid? What’s makes you think he was posting about you?
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#80
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 12:31 PM

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Paranoid? What’s makes you think he was posting about you?


Good point.

#81
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 June 2019 - 12:41 PM

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Nice day!

#82
Phil

Posted 01 June 2019 - 12:53 PM

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This is a potent wave. Until it reaches the WPAC, you have to lean cooler than guidance over NW-North America.

vpS7ogW.gif
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#83
Phil

Posted 01 June 2019 - 01:03 PM

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For M/J/J.

Generally, phase 4-5-6 (E-IO) MJOs assuming the W-1 structure teleconnect to cooler regimes in the PNW.

Phase 7-8-1 (WPAC/WHEM) MJOs assuming the W-1 structure teleconnect to warmer regimes. The others are transitional.

V2F73kq.jpg
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#84
Phil

Posted 01 June 2019 - 01:09 PM

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So you have to wonder if some of the modeled warmth during week 2 is overzealous if not flat out wrong.

Looking over past cases of EHEM MJOs recycling during monsoonal inception, since 1998 there are zero cases where the west was ridgy before forcing reached the WPAC, but every single case that wasn’t La Niña transitioned to warm/ridgy once the wave reached the WPAC ~ 3 weeks later.

If I were betting, I’d lean variable with a cool lean until it reaches the WPAC in late June, then go hot for a week or two.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#85
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 01:26 PM

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Annoying bias of ECMWF... it paints high clouds way too thick most of the time.   

  

Its projected temps are really the only way to judge the true opacity its assuming when looking more than a few hours ahead.  For the last several runs... I could tell by its projected temps for today that the high cloud band it was showing would actually be quite thin.

 

Here is what it showed for 2 p.m.

 

ecmwf-washington-total-cloud-9422800.png

 

 

And here is reality...

 

sat-6-1.png



#86
James Jones

Posted 01 June 2019 - 02:04 PM

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To sum it up:

Variability until mid/late June, then a heatwave pattern as forcing propagates over the WPAC, then a crash into a 2011-ish pattern for a few weeks.

Analogs are indicative of another heatwave in mid/late August, but I can’t see that far ahead dynamically yet.

 

A 2011-like pattern sounds lovely, but I can't help but think your desire to troll Tim is clouding your judgement. Seems like every time you've forecast a cool period the last several warm seasons the best case scenario is that we get a brief period where we cool down to average or a touch below before quickly returning to torching.

 

My guess is we torch yet again this summer in typical 2013 to present fashion. I hope I'm wrong but predicting otherwise feels like a "too clever by half" move.


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#87
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 June 2019 - 02:14 PM

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Up to 73 degrees as of 3pm pretty similar to yesterday.

#88
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 01 June 2019 - 02:34 PM

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Had a handful of rumbles from a vicinity storm a couple hours ago. Still nothing overly exciting during this stretch.


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 32.00"
 
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 -
Mar '20 -
Apr '20 -
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Severe Wind: 0
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 5 (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#89
Deweydog

Posted 01 June 2019 - 03:02 PM

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Has he even been back 24 hours?
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All roads lead to Walgreens.

#90
Phil

Posted 01 June 2019 - 03:17 PM

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A 2011-like pattern sounds lovely, but I can't help but think your desire to troll Tim is clouding your judgement. Seems like every time you've forecast a cool period the last several warm seasons the best case scenario is that we get a brief period where we cool down to average or a touch below before quickly returning to torching.

My guess is we torch yet again this summer in typical 2013 to present fashion. I hope I'm wrong but predicting otherwise feels like a "too clever by half" move.


I’m not trolling this time. Not in the mood today.

A 2011-like pattern that lasts for 10-15 days is nothing extraordinary, when you think about it. The last several years have given us all a warped perception of reality.
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Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#91
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 June 2019 - 03:56 PM

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2011 was more of a cool spring than a cool summer anyway. The summer was essentially shifted a month over, and that September was the warmest of the past 10 years.

Overall it was cooler than normal over the warmest three months of the year but I wouldn’t put it on the same level as the green tomato volcanic summers of 1983 and 1993.

However, 2010 was a very cool summer for CA moreso than the PNW, and 2011 was similar. I could be wrong on 2011 for CA though.
No rain here until Hour 258.

#92
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 04:10 PM

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Has he even been back 24 hours?


Remember, posts referring to other posts are the height of unkool.

#93
Deweydog

Posted 01 June 2019 - 04:18 PM

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Remember, posts referring to other posts are the height of unkool.


Happy Saturday! It’s a NICE one!
All roads lead to Walgreens.

#94
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 04:22 PM

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Happy Saturday! It’s a NICE one!


Indeed, took a drive up the Larch Mountain road (Oregon side). They just reopened it for the first time since the Eagle Creek Fire.

#95
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 June 2019 - 04:43 PM

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Well we are rolling right along today!

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 34 (Most recent: Jan 17)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope

 

24


#96
High Desert Mat?

Posted 01 June 2019 - 04:49 PM

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Annoying bias of ECMWF... it paints high clouds way too thick most of the time.

Its projected temps are really the only way to judge the true opacity its assuming when looking more than a few hours ahead. For the last several runs... I could tell by its projected temps for today that the high cloud band it was showing would actually be quite thin.

Here is what it showed for 2 p.m.

ecmwf-washington-total-cloud-9422800.png


And here is reality...


sat-6-1.png


You really need to get a life and get off the net sometimes. You’re the only person here that is constantly and reliably on here. Now you’re talking about high clouds? Good grief.
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#97
High Desert Mat?

Posted 01 June 2019 - 04:50 PM

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Those high clouds are ruining my day. Grrrr. I think I’ll make a few more posts about it so Phil and Jesse say something to me and I can stay on here for another 8 hours debating high clouds. I hope my wife approves.
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#98
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 June 2019 - 05:01 PM

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Beautiful day in the s valley. Currently 81F and getting hot in the house with the sun on the west side of it. Gets in the front porch door. Unfortunately we can only put 1 AC window unit in or else it blows our circuit. Still helps to sit next to it in the bedroom. Time to put it in on Monday.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 34 (Most recent: Jan 17)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope

 

24


#99
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 05:36 PM

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Perfect day... 76 and sunny.

Some prom craziness this evening.

20190601-181259.jpg

#100
High Desert Mat?

Posted 01 June 2019 - 05:36 PM

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Beautiful day in the s valley. Currently 81F and getting hot in the house with the sun on the west side of it. Gets in the front porch door. Unfortunately we can only put 1 AC window unit in or else it blows our circuit. Still helps to sit next to it in the bedroom. Time to put it in on Monday.


I’m with ya. I’m putting mine in tomorrow. I have a 20,000 btu unit and if I space fans out accordingly it’ll cool the house just right in a hot day here in Redmond.
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