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Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

january 2020 winter snow cold weather PNW
* * * * * 4 votes

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#101
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 January 2020 - 07:50 AM

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I have a feeling folks up north are gonna be pretty happy in a couple weeks. PDX especially. Rooting for y’all to get buried.
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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 60 (Most recent: Mar 22)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope

 

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#102
runninthruda206

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:05 AM

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Praying this comes true. Would be incredible.

#103
Jginmartini

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:08 AM

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Praying this comes true. Would be incredible.

As well as inconceivable  :rolleyes:


Layman’s terms please 😁

#104
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:13 AM

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Just feeling really positive this morning.  I think the overnight FV3 is onto something.


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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 60 (Most recent: Mar 22)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope

 

24


#105
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:16 AM

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As well as inconceivable  :rolleyes:

 

 

Not really... it just happened 11 months ago.   


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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#106
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:17 AM

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12z not looking as good as 06z at D6, but that would be hard to do.

#107
12345WeatherNerd

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:22 AM

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12z not looking as good as 06z at D6, but that would be hard to do.


But it looks better at day 8. https://www.tropical...z500a_us_32.png

#108
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:24 AM

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Some low elevation snow by next Thursday.

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#109
High Desert Mat?

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:24 AM

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12z mirroring 6z basically through hr 192

#110
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:29 AM

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FWIW, a little further north with the mega snow producer around D10.

Still looks to deliver nice snow totals after this frame though.

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#111
Jginmartini

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:32 AM

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Not really... it just happened 11 months ago.   

Tim, it’s a fun word....just go with  ;)


Layman’s terms please 😁

#112
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:33 AM

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Not as snowy as the 06z (expected), but still pretty snowy nonetheless.

Totals by D10...

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#113
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:35 AM

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Not a black hole but still pretty.

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#114
Cloud

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:37 AM

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Another solid run up to day 10. I’m surprised it is keeping up with the snowy theme around day 9 to day 10.

#115
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:37 AM

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Overall, the 12z is another great run through D10. It takes the lofty goals outlined by the 06z and just brings them back down to earth a hair.

Still snowy, still cold, still beautiful pattern at 500mb, still tons of potential.

#116
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:37 AM

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Tankage!!!

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#117
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:40 AM

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Had a little snow 3yrs ago today.

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#118
Prairiedog

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:41 AM

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10 Day Snowfall Totals

 

Regional area

 

snodpc_acc.us_nw.png

Gotta love how PDX is in play again for deep snow.  Deep is anything over 1" here, these days. 


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#119
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:43 AM

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Not as snowy as the 06z (expected), but still pretty snowy nonetheless.

Totals by D10...

That works...other than the finger of blue extending to my area.

Call me crazy but I have a feeling a lot of people here will be seeing white soon!

#120
Prairiedog

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:45 AM

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Great run, though those exact details at play would be somewhat sad for the lower elevations of the Portland metro (warm-nosed for the entire event). But the fact that we're seeing these kinds of systems show up in multiple runs couldn't be more exciting.

Yep, if there's a warm nose around, it will find my house.  My last deep snow (over 4") was in '08. 


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#121
Cloud

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:45 AM

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By day 12, we are in an box.

#122
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:45 AM

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Gotta love how PDX is in play again for deep snow. Deep is anything over 1" here, these days.


Y’all are gonna get nailed. I have a good feeling. ❄️

I had some bad luck for years from Feb 2014-Jan 2019 then Feb 25-27 happened. It’ll flip one day like it does for all of us. 😀
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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 60 (Most recent: Mar 22)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope

 

24


#123
12345WeatherNerd

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:46 AM

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I’d rather not have the trough dip into California but you can’t have everything and this run has been good enough. https://www.tropical...z500a_us_47.png

#124
Prairiedog

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:48 AM

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This looks like fun. Massive east winds, snow

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_59.png

Crown Point will be fun!  Have to dust off the anemometer. 


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#125
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:48 AM

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That works...other than the finger of blue extending to my area.

Call me crazy but I have a feeling a lot of people here will be seeing white soon!

 

 

You are so crazy Randy.    ^_^


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#126
FroYoBro

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:49 AM

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Wow. Amazingly the 12z doesn't look that different from the 6z. 

 

A lot of potential again. 



#127
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:49 AM

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Yep, if there's a warm nose around, it will find my house. My last deep snow (over 4") was in '08.

Yikes! 34” for December 2008 was just nudged out by February/March 2019 here with a 36” total.
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#128
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:50 AM

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Crown Point will be fun! Have to dust off the anemometer.


That would be an orgasmic cross-cascade gradient. Spilling over into the McKenzie valley with a continental profile.
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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 60 (Most recent: Mar 22)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope

 

24


#129
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:50 AM

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More snow around D13.

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#130
Cloud

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:51 AM

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Another snowstorm at day 13

#131
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:53 AM

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12Z GEM is definitely not on board at all.   But the GFS has been leading the way with the overall 500mb pattern lately... including when it was showing a warmer solution than the ECMWF a couple days ago for early next week.

 

We will see if the 12Z ECMWF comes around.   It was pretty close to the GFS at the 500mb level but did not show any meaningful cold air through day 10.    I also remember that Mark Nelsen pointed out that the new GFS has been running too cold in the mid and long range since the upgrade.  


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#132
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:54 AM

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Lolz... Because why not.

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#133
Jginmartini

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:54 AM

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Windy morning still 20—30 mph

49*

 

Total precipitation for my weather station 2019.....32.71 

Seatac came in 1.17 higher 

 

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Layman’s terms please 😁

#134
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:55 AM

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Love that pattern of the surface low pasting Western Washington then dumbbelling around and giving us a Willamette Valley Special.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 60 (Most recent: Mar 22)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope

 

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#135
Cloud

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:56 AM

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Holy shiet...

#136
puyallupjon

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:56 AM

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12Z GEM is definitely not on board at all.   But the GFS has been leading the way with the overall 500mb pattern lately... including when it was showing a warmer solution than the ECMWF a couple days ago for early next week.

 

We will see if the 12Z ECMWF comes around.   It was pretty close to the GFS at the 500mb level but did not show any meaningful cold air through day 10.    I also remember that Mark Nelsen pointed out that the new GFS has been running too cold in the mid and long range since the upgrade.  

 

Thank you Tim for bringing us all back down to earth.



#137
MossMan

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:57 AM

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Would like to see the big 3 all looking somewhat similar...Let’s hope the Euro becomes similar to the big G! The big G has led the way so far so let’s hope!

#138
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:57 AM

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Pretty d*mn nice to have two very, very nice runs back to back.

#139
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:58 AM

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Thank you Tim for bringing us all back down to earth.


GFS could be right... its starting to show consistency. I have no idea. Just offering some thoughts.
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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#140
12345WeatherNerd

Posted 01 January 2020 - 08:59 AM

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12Z GEM is definitely not on board at all. But the GFS has been leading the way with the overall 500mb pattern lately... including when it was showing a warmer solution than the ECMWF a couple days ago for early next week.

We will see if the 12Z ECMWF comes around. It was pretty close to the GFS at the 500mb level but did not show any meaningful cold air through day 10. I also remember that Mark Nelsen pointed out that the new GFS has been running too cold in the mid and long range since the upgrade.

A cold bias doesn’t matter a single bit if there’s a pressure gradient like this over BC.

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#141
Cloud

Posted 01 January 2020 - 09:00 AM

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Thank you Tim for bringing us all back down to earth.

Gotta find something, even onto the GEM! I kinda wanna know when was the last time Tim cited the GEM?

#142
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2020 - 09:01 AM

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A cold bias doesn’t matter a single bit of there’s a pressure gradient like this over BC.

The cold bias could be part of why it shows that gradient.

Again... I will be more confident when the ECMWF shows meaningful cold air within 10 days.
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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#143
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 January 2020 - 09:02 AM

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Finished December with some heavy rain and windy conditions. 0.49" on new year's to put us at 7.93" for December and 31.32" of rain for the year.
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Cold season stats (since 10/1) (-40 highs)-7 (-32 lows)-26 Snowfall-2.0” Rainfall-29.50” Coldest High-36 Coldest Low-25

#144
Esquimalt

Posted 01 January 2020 - 09:02 AM

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What were the Euro wind maps looking like for Friday night last night? 



#145
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 January 2020 - 09:03 AM

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Got fairly windy last night here...first real blow of the winter with 45mph~ gusts. Fun new years.
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Cold season stats (since 10/1) (-40 highs)-7 (-32 lows)-26 Snowfall-2.0” Rainfall-29.50” Coldest High-36 Coldest Low-25

#146
seattleweatherguy

Posted 01 January 2020 - 09:03 AM

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Happy new year to all my fellow weather lovers on this forum. May we all get hit with snows this year and this decade to come!. 


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#147
TT-SEA

Posted 01 January 2020 - 09:04 AM

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Gotta find something, even onto the GEM! I kinda wanna know when was the last time Tim cited the GEM?

 

 

Don't be a jerk.   Every time the GEM shows cold... its touted on here.    And if the 12Z GEM agreed with the 12Z GFS... it would have been mentioned numerous times already.    Including by me.

 

When there is huge differences in the models for a big event... we obviously will look to the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM for some agreement.   You don't have to pay attention... but I am going to watch those models and the ensembles.


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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#148
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 January 2020 - 09:07 AM

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My god... Look at the size of that thing.

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#149
Cloud

Posted 01 January 2020 - 09:07 AM

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The cold bias could be part of why it shows that gradient.

Again... I will be more confident when the ECMWF shows meaningful cold air within 10 days.


Timing has gone slightly up last couple runs on the 06 and 12, I would expect the Euro to do the same. I haven’t checked rhe latest GEFS yet but the 06 run didn’t follow the operational at all, so this may be the case of the op leading the way or still a cold outlier. No way of telling
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#150
12345WeatherNerd

Posted 01 January 2020 - 09:08 AM

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Don't be a jerk.   Every time the GEM shows cold... its touted on here.    And if the 12Z GEM agreed with the 12Z GFS... it would have been mentioned numerous times already.    
 
When there is huge differences in the models for a big event... we obviously will look to the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM for some agreement.   You don't have to pay attention... but I am going to watch those models and the ensembles.


Also important to note that the operational gfs recently outperformed its own ensemble and the European model and its ensemble.
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