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May 2020 Observations and Discussion

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#1
St Paul Storm

Posted 30 April 2020 - 05:27 AM

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Hope Tom doesn’t mind, but I’ve started the May thread. Will the nice temps seen in late April continue into May, or will we still be looking at snow maps? Let’s discuss.

The 0z GFS for the loss.....

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#2
Tom

Posted 01 May 2020 - 04:43 AM

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Hope Tom doesn’t mind, but I’ve started the May thread. Will the nice temps seen in late April continue into May, or will we still be looking at snow maps? Let’s discuss.

The 0z GFS for the loss.....

LOL, the past couple GFS runs has several minor snow events traversing the GL's region...reminds me of May '13 or '14....can't remember the exact year but I recall James saying it snowed on his B Day in May.  00z Euro has snow falling the following weekend in NE and potentially late season Frost/Freezes with record cold possible.



#3
james1976

Posted 01 May 2020 - 05:09 AM

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LOL, the past couple GFS runs has several minor snow events traversing the GL's region...reminds me of May '13 or '14....can't remember the exact year but I recall James saying it snowed on his B Day in May. 00z Euro has snow falling the following weekend in NE and potentially late season Frost/Freezes with record cold possible.

My bday is Nov 11th but yes I had 9" of snow May 1-2, 2013! It was crazy
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#4
gabel23

Posted 01 May 2020 - 06:50 AM

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LOL, the past couple GFS runs has several minor snow events traversing the GL's region...reminds me of May '13 or '14....can't remember the exact year but I recall James saying it snowed on his B Day in May.  00z Euro has snow falling the following weekend in NE and potentially late season Frost/Freezes with record cold possible.

I started planting my garden yesterday and put up 186 hills of potatoes and two rows of onions. I was hoping to get my tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, and lettuce planted we don't need that record cold!


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#5
westMJim

Posted 01 May 2020 - 07:01 AM

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Here is a quick look back at the year so far.

For the year at Grand Rapids the mean so far is 35.4° the average mean for the 1st 4 months is 33.7° so at this time 2020 is at +1.7° Now a good case can be made that April 2020 was indeed well below average. But January 2020 was a whopping +6.9° so that has been the difference so far this year


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#6
Tom

Posted 01 May 2020 - 07:17 AM

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I started planting my garden yesterday and put up 186 hills of potatoes and two rows of onions. I was hoping to get my tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, and lettuce planted we don't need that record cold!

I love gardens and home grown veggies!  Nothing beats the taste of a homegrown tomato!


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#7
Niko

Posted 01 May 2020 - 07:22 AM

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Where the heck was this in Winter......

off15_temp.gif


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#8
Niko

Posted 01 May 2020 - 07:25 AM

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Attm, its 54F w a blend of clouds and sun. Gorgeous weekend coming up w temps in the 70s and sunshine. Dry CF coming through on Sunday which will drop temps and hardly any rainfall. Next week features highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s w possible frost and freeze advisories.



#9
Mi_Matthew

Posted 01 May 2020 - 08:07 AM

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I started planting my garden yesterday and put up 186 hills of potatoes and two rows of onions. I was hoping to get my tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, and lettuce planted we don't need that record cold!


Going to be hardening off my tomatoes & peppers hopefully the next week or two. My early season cool crops all germinated, albeit taking much longer than usual. This recent soaking and now sun today/tomorrow should do wonders though.
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#10
Mi_Matthew

Posted 01 May 2020 - 08:16 AM

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Wow, the arctic blast mid-month on the 06z GFS means business!

Edit: Sure looks like 12z isn't backing off one bit either.

#11
bud2380

Posted 01 May 2020 - 09:51 AM

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Models showing highs in the 40s in Eastern Iowa on Mother's Day.  Awful.  


Season Snowfall 23.2"


#12
james1976

Posted 01 May 2020 - 10:09 AM

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I think I'll wait on laying down that grass seed

#13
TOL_Weather

Posted 01 May 2020 - 10:31 AM

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My last full month in Ohio is starting beautifully. Perfectly blue and 64° with flowering trees.
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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#14
Niko

Posted 01 May 2020 - 10:45 AM

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Absolutely gorgeous outside. By looking from my office window, I don't think there is a single cloud out there. Temps are at 61F w trees starting to bloom, although, there are a few bare ones still around.

 

My Arborvitae trees definitely need a a trim from what I am seeing.


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#15
Tom

Posted 01 May 2020 - 12:35 PM

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GL's chill on the way...meanwhile, looks like I'm going to Fry over here...crazy to see how many 100 degree temps we've seen already and that are in the forecast next week.  Looks like Summer has come early.

 

 

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#16
snowstorm83

Posted 01 May 2020 - 05:58 PM

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KLNK overshot the high temp today by 6 degrees and hit 91 for the first day of May. Tied with McCook, Wahoo, and Tekamah as the the highest temps in the state today. 


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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.7"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 


#17
CentralNebWeather

Posted 01 May 2020 - 07:38 PM

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I think I topped out at 88 in Central Nebraska

#18
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 May 2020 - 07:45 PM

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I usually don't tip my own hat to myself but this is pretty much confirmation of a ludicrous looking AO forecast I made a great while back of a warm season -AO. It will likely fade with time, but I think we have a good fair shot of seeing a -AO July crash like 2009.
Tom and then from the Tennessee Smokies and NE may well be the only places in the CONUS that see the sustained heat at all this summer.

Don't see any reason to think the SE is going to catch much of a break in terms of severe until next month if we get a pattern retrogression. We should, but there's been a lot of mixed signals everywhere in the last 18 months, so I'll see if it abates over the coming weeks. Benefit is that we have all been pretty well distracted the last few weeks. Lol. Happy May.Attached File  ao.sprd2.gif   27.88KB   0 downloads

#19
Tom

Posted 02 May 2020 - 04:49 AM

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The old saying, "April showers brings May flowers"...this year may bring "May Snow Showers" next weekend across the GL's....the emmense blocking pattern setting up later next week is incredible.  Haven't seen this much high lat blocking in a very long time.  Last night's 00z Euro run showed a piece of the Polar Vortex swinging through the northern part of the GL's.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png

 

 

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_36.png

 

 

 

 

00z EPS hinting at Lake Effect snow up in the U.P!

 

 

  

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#20
Tom

Posted 02 May 2020 - 05:05 AM

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I think I topped out at 88 in Central Nebraska

What was the DP?  Dry heat?  Your getting a taste of the blazing heat we are enduring out here.  Next week the models show temps surging to 107F!  Yikes!



#21
TOL_Weather

Posted 02 May 2020 - 07:32 AM

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GFS has me struggling to get out of the 30s next weekend.


>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#22
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 May 2020 - 07:35 AM

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May 2013 flashbacks up there Tom. Crazy. Thats going to feel cold!

#23
Niko

Posted 02 May 2020 - 07:37 AM

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Next weekend could feature snowshowers in my neck of the woods w temps approaching the freezing point at night. Daytime highs will be very chilly and will be running a good 25 to 30 degrees BN.



#24
Tom

Posted 02 May 2020 - 08:21 AM

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May 2013 flashbacks up there Tom. Crazy. Thats going to feel cold!


You know what I’m thinking...that set the stage for some nice winters. Not to get ahead of myself, but man, I’ve been in summer mode over here and I got this funny feeling when I head back hime sometime in June it’ll be a refreshing summer with som bouts of heat.

#25
TOL_Weather

Posted 02 May 2020 - 08:30 AM

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Next weekend could feature snowshowers in my neck of the woods w temps approaching the freezing point at night. Daytime highs will be very chilly and will be running a good 25 to 30 degrees BN.

Could get below 30 here next weekend. Hopefully it'll kill the wasps that have been out and about! Concerned about plants though.


>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#26
CentralNebWeather

Posted 02 May 2020 - 09:22 AM

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What was the DP? Dry heat? Your getting a taste of the blazing heat we are enduring out here. Next week the models show temps surging to 107F! Yikes!


Dew was 45. Right now temp is in the 50’s with cloudy skies and a strong north wind. Left the windows open last night and temp inside is 62 degrees. Chilly for sure. Nebraska weather is very changeable for sure.
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#27
Niko

Posted 02 May 2020 - 09:40 AM

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Could get below 30 here next weekend. Hopefully it'll kill the wasps that have been out and about! Concerned about plants though.

Crazy weather. Wouldn't be surprised if record lows occur, let alone record low high temps for that matter. Anyone that has plants outside should prepare to cover them.

 

Yep, they are annoying. Hopefully, these pygmy species can be destroyed w this coldsnap coming, especially at night when they are sleeping. They are not dangerous,unless you bother it, but you don't wanna get it to sting you . Anyhow, I cant stand them.



#28
james1976

Posted 02 May 2020 - 09:40 AM

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You know what I’m thinking...that set the stage for some nice winters. Not to get ahead of myself, but man, I’ve been in summer mode over here and I got this funny feeling when I head back hime sometime in June it’ll be a refreshing summer with som bouts of heat.

No doubt. I had that big snow May 1-2, 2013 and I had my first flakes of the next season on Sept 27, 2013 which set the stage for the epic '13-'14 Winter.

#29
Niko

Posted 02 May 2020 - 09:42 AM

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Attm, its 70F under partly to mostly sunny skies. Beautiful weather today in SEMI. Enjoy everyone! :D


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#30
TOL_Weather

Posted 02 May 2020 - 10:01 AM

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Same story as Niko here, except it's 76.4*F. Windows open.


>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#31
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 May 2020 - 10:38 AM

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You know what I’m thinking...that set the stage for some nice winters. Not to get ahead of myself, but man, I’ve been in summer mode over here and I got this funny feeling when I head back home sometime in June it’ll be a refreshing summer with som bouts of heat.


Winter 13-14 was a blitz from 12-1 all the way to 3-30. Crazy good stuff. We're a long way from there right now though.
Oh yeah man. You're going to time that perfectly I think. Enjoy the summer weather out there buddy.
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#32
TOL_Weather

Posted 02 May 2020 - 11:54 AM

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80.8*F.


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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#33
Niko

Posted 02 May 2020 - 11:57 AM

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80.8*F.

WOW!

 

I am at 75.1F. It has not felt this warm here since last Autumn season. Feels awesome being outside.

 

I can definitely see some records being broken today.


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#34
TOL_Weather

Posted 02 May 2020 - 12:08 PM

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WOW!

 

I am at 75.1F. It has not felt this warm here since last Autumn season. Feels awesome being outside.

 

I can definitely see some records being broken today.

And then some more records being broken next weekend!

 

81.0*F.


>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#35
Niko

Posted 02 May 2020 - 01:52 PM

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And then some more records being broken next weekend!

 

81.0*F.

Go figure! It almost feels like we are in March. This will definitely be an outre week of weather.



#36
snowstorm83

Posted 02 May 2020 - 02:12 PM

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Honestly loving the look for the next couple weeks. Lots of highs in the 50s and 60s. I'll take that before sets in for good, we have months of warm weather ahead. 


Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.7"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 


#37
westMJim

Posted 03 May 2020 - 03:07 AM

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Yesterday was a great day for early May. And while today also looks to be a good day weather wise that may not be the case next weekend. While things still could change but at this time it looks like next weekend could be near record cold. And there is a chance of some snow as well.

This from the NWS
“IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BASED ON SPC SOUNDING DATA HISTORY, THE
COLDEST 850 TEMP IN MAY FOR THE DTX SOUNDING AT 850 MB IS AROUND
-12C. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING -10C AT 850 MB NEAR US FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST RECORD COLD IS POSSIBLE. RECORD
LOW HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT OUR
CLIMATE SITES. RECORD LOWS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AS A HARD FREEZE IS MORE THAN POSSIBLE.

IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, SO
IF THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS, GIVEN THE
INSTABLITY SUGGESTED BY MODEL SOUNDING, ONE SHOULD EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF SNOW, OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SOFT HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE THEN. I DO NOT THINK WE WILL
SEE ANY SIGNIFCANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW BUT I DO BELIEVE WE WILL
SEE SOME SNOW FALLING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.”

Now here are the cold records for next weekend at Grand Rapids. For Friday, the 8th the coldest maximum is 41 set in 1947 and the record low is 27 set in 1976. For Saturday, the record coldest maximum is 43 set in 1960 and the record low is 23 set in 1947. And for Sunday the record coldest maximum is 47 set in 1947 and the coldest low is 22 set in 1966.


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#38
Sparky

Posted 03 May 2020 - 03:38 AM

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A recap of last week's weather shows I had highs in the 70°s every day except on Wednesday. It was a beautiful week except there was plenty of wind at times. But we sure are stuck in a boring weather pattern compared to normal.

#39
Tom

Posted 03 May 2020 - 03:45 AM

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A recap of last week's weather shows I had highs in the 70°s every day except on Wednesday. It was a beautiful week except there was plenty of wind at times. But we sure are stuck in a boring weather pattern compared to normal.

Are the farmers out planting or are they just prepping the soils for the time being?  



#40
Sparky

Posted 03 May 2020 - 03:47 AM

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No doubt. I had that big snow May 1-2, 2013 and I had my first flakes of the next season on Sept 27, 2013 which set the stage for the epic '13-'14 Winter.


I remember that event even though it skirted by just to the west of me. Either way, we just got done with winter and I don't even want to think about next winter already! Ugh I hate cold and the '13 -'14 winter only has bad memories for me when I still had livestock to keep fed and warm!

#41
Tom

Posted 03 May 2020 - 03:48 AM

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Spoke to my close friend back home yesterday and he said how glorious of a day it was spending time outdoors.  It's too bad the parks are still all closed.  Another pleasant day on tap back home and the notorious and dreaded "pneumonia front" is forecast to make its way into NE IL later this evening.  I guess the silver lining is that it's hitting later in the day instead on midday.

 

 

 

Tab5FileL.png?e75a3ba937e7a367418fbd1cae



#42
Sparky

Posted 03 May 2020 - 03:54 AM

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Are the farmers out planting or are they just prepping the soils for the time being?

Most everyone is planting across the state with a near record pace for this time of the year since it is unusually nice and dry! I'm glad for the crop farmers after enduring last years near record slow planting progression!
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#43
Tom

Posted 03 May 2020 - 03:58 AM

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Most everyone is planting across the state with a near record pace for this time of the year since it is unusually nice and dry! I'm glad for the crop farmers after enduring last years near record slow planting progression!

That's great to hear.  No flooding and snow this year!  I'm not sure how quickly the crop will start growing if the cooler than normal temps persist throughout this month.


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#44
Sparky

Posted 03 May 2020 - 04:07 AM

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I think I'll wait on laying down that grass seed


I would say the main problem in getting grass started now is dry weather, at least for my place. I keep needing to water the patches I planted a month or so ago before several snows and cold weather hit my area. But it's growing (slowly) now as it hadn't sprouted before it hit 19° one morning and also was covered with snow! Also planted some last week and that should grow better except it's dry now.

#45
Sparky

Posted 03 May 2020 - 04:24 AM

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I started planting my garden yesterday and put up 186 hills of potatoes and two rows of onions. I was hoping to get my tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, and lettuce planted we don't need that record cold!


Wow! Do you eat a lot of potatoes etc or are you a produce farmer and sell at a farmer's market or something? Good luck anyway! Home raised is the best!

#46
Sparky

Posted 03 May 2020 - 04:30 AM

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Most everyone is planting across the state with a near record pace for this time of the year since it is unusually nice and dry! I'm glad for the crop farmers after enduring last years near record slow planting progression!


A lot of farmers may actually be finished or wrapping up with planting, but many are still going hard especially locally.

#47
Tom

Posted 03 May 2020 - 04:34 AM

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I'm heading up to the mountains today just east of Payson near a couple of lakes where the elevation is around 7,500ft.  Just checked temps up there and they are a bit chilly in the upper 30's (38F) right now and only getting up into the upper 60's today but with full sun it should feel pretty good.

 

Going to try these two trails:

 

https://www.azutopia...g-hiking-trail/

 

https://www.azutopia...es-vista-trail/


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#48
TOL_Weather

Posted 03 May 2020 - 04:45 AM

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Most everyone is planting across the state with a near record pace for this time of the year since it is unusually nice and dry! I'm glad for the crop farmers after enduring last years near record slow planting progression!

At least some facet of the economy is doing well.


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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#49
Sparky

Posted 03 May 2020 - 05:02 AM

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At least some facet of the economy is doing well.


Yes planting is going great in Iowa, (areas east of the Mississippi River had heavy rainfall recently though) but grain prices are very low due to ethanol plants doing poorly, (a lot of corn goes for ethanol production) and greatly reducing output, and even shutting down in some cases due to low gas prices and lower demand! One thing leads to another it seems.

#50
Sparky

Posted 03 May 2020 - 05:03 AM

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I'm heading up to the mountains today just east of Payson near a couple of lakes where the elevation is around 7,500ft.  Just checked temps up there and they are a bit chilly in the upper 30's (38F) right now and only getting up into the upper 60's today but with full sun it should feel pretty good.
 
Going to try these two trails:
 
https://www.azutopia...g-hiking-trail/
 
https://www.azutopia...es-vista-trail/

Sounds like fun. Enjoy!
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