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2/21 - 2/22 Winter Storm Potential

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#151
jaster220

Posted 19 February 2015 - 12:29 PM

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@ Seasqaukfan

 

You're not serious I hope. Everyone on every board has been taken to the cleaners by these craptastic mid to long range model outputs. Tom's contributions make this board a place worth visiting, unlike your own. Get real dude!


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#152
NEJeremy

Posted 19 February 2015 - 12:38 PM

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This thread was started 4 days before the potential storm. Was it not supposed to be started until after all the warnings went up if the storm came to fruition?

Tom started a thread for something we were all talking about already anyways. Why the hell does it matter whether we are talking about it in a specific thread about that POTENTIAL storm or talking about it along with everything else we discussed in that month?



#153
Seahawkfan

Posted 19 February 2015 - 01:03 PM

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I'm wasn't serious just annoyed our storm's seem to vanish about this time frustrating winter as far as snow concerned. All the cold dry such a waste without Snow. Obviously Tom not to blame. Lol

#154
earthandturf

Posted 19 February 2015 - 01:32 PM

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Get a grip people. If anyone should be pissed about storms that don't come to fruition, it should be me and the other people who plow to make a living and pay the bills in the winter. Tom does a great job putting forth the best information he can to track storms. Nothing wrong with starting a thread for a storm that will eventually affect someone here on this forum.


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#155
jaster220

Posted 19 February 2015 - 03:26 PM

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Get a grip people. If anyone should be pissed about storms that don't come to fruition, it should be me and the other people who plow to make a living and pay the bills in the winter. Tom does a great job putting forth the best information he can to track storms. Nothing wrong with starting a thread for a storm that will eventually affect someone here on this forum.

 

Inside 120hrs is actually being very conservative for thread starting. Heck, look at AccuWx's forums, they'll start threads 15 days out. LOL! This board has it's core following from Chicago west to Nebraska, so a thread in this forum won't likely be started for an event that's only going to hit a few of us outside that geographical zone. Case in point, these clippers that have hit SWMI and mby a couple times this winter = no thread. And that's fine. I don't need a thread for a few posts from a few of us getting hit. Makes no sense. I'm sure Tom is just as frustrated at how teased we've been by the mid-range models this season.


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#156
jaster220

Posted 19 February 2015 - 03:29 PM

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At any rate, RGEM chucks some of us a bone. If this could go a bit stronger, we'd take a 3-6" event and get it back to a stripe of warning level snows. Let's see what curve balls the next 48 hrs can hurl at us.

 

post-4070-0-46322100-1424386202.png


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#157
Hawkeye

Posted 19 February 2015 - 06:33 PM

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The NAM has really surged solid moisture back up into the Ohio Valley region this evening, so folks from Missouri to Ohio could still get a nice snowfall.


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#158
Tom

Posted 19 February 2015 - 07:08 PM

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00z NAM...I know there are some C IL posters on here...looks like they may get in on some snow...


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#159
winterfreak

Posted 19 February 2015 - 07:09 PM

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A sleet storm here? Yikes no thanks.

#160
Tony

Posted 19 February 2015 - 07:50 PM

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On my phone have not looked but have heard GFS is wetter and stronger

#161
Tom

Posted 19 February 2015 - 07:58 PM

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On my phone have not looked but have heard GFS is wetter and stronger

00z GFS...



#162
Tony

Posted 19 February 2015 - 08:02 PM

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Definitely heading back in the right direction. What a difference partial sampling will do. Full sampling by tomorrow. Let the new northwards trend begin.

#163
Tom

Posted 19 February 2015 - 08:26 PM

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00z RGEM came a nudge north as well...



#164
Tom

Posted 19 February 2015 - 08:46 PM

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00z GGEM...



#165
Tom

Posted 19 February 2015 - 08:47 PM

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Man, a 50 mile shift more north and E IA/N IL are in the game...



#166
winterfreak

Posted 19 February 2015 - 08:56 PM

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Looks like a torch to me. Chicago people are really though.

#167
Snowlover76

Posted 19 February 2015 - 09:32 PM

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Glad I never got excited over this one.
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#168
SnowDaddy

Posted 20 February 2015 - 05:47 AM

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Im from Central IL and appricate the info!



#169
Maxim

Posted 20 February 2015 - 10:11 AM

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Congrats to Indy and Ohio?

#170
jaster220

Posted 20 February 2015 - 01:24 PM

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@ Maxim - Yep!


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#171
MarcusBeier

Posted 20 February 2015 - 05:38 PM

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Surprised this thread is dying when there is so much moisture on radar. Im in SEMI and i know everyone (local mets/NOAA) has stated full confidence this will pile on about 100-200 miles south of me. Of late though, the models are steering back toward (atleast somehwat) a larger/jucier storm with the northwest edge pulling more into my area. What are we thinking as of tonight for SEMI? I think with the current forecast of 1-4 inches, this could very well overperform no?



#172
Hawkeye

Posted 20 February 2015 - 05:42 PM

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So far most stations from Kansas to central Illinois are reporting freezing rain.


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#173
Tom

Posted 20 February 2015 - 06:05 PM

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00z NAM took a slight shift south...looks like SE MI doesn't get anything appreciable...



#174
Maxim

Posted 20 February 2015 - 06:52 PM

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00z NAM took a slight shift south...looks like SE MI doesn't get anything appreciable...

Not buying that south shift. We will see though as the storm unfolds tomorrow.



#175
MarcusBeier

Posted 21 February 2015 - 11:46 AM

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bummer, and the suns out now so NOWCAST from SEMI says complete dud CONFIRMED :angry:



#176
Maxim

Posted 21 February 2015 - 12:02 PM

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SE MI was never really in play with this storm tbh.