Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Over the past few days, models have been going back and forth as to what would happen with the lead wave over the weekend. It looks like now there will be a stationary boundary that sets up over the central CONUS this weekend. Models are still not in complete agreement what will happen with the 2nd piece of energy that is left back in the SW. 00z GFS has been trending towards a phase each run and seems like that may be a plausible solution as some of the more favorable teleconnections may support a system to slow and dig in the Plains/Midwest region. Lot's of time to see how this one evolves BUT we may finally see a big Spring time storm next week. Let's discuss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow, 00z GGEM with a 986mb in N MO... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow, 00z GGEM with a 986mb in N MO...What timeframe? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Hopefully this can brew up to become a monster Spring storm.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Hopefully this can brew up to become a monster Spring storm....Dear God, that looks intense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Whats temp profiles on that GGEM run? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 00z GGEM... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Tom, does GGEM have one big storm or 2 pieces of energy like GFS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Tom, does GGEM have one big storm or 2 pieces of energy like GFS?1st piece isn't anything special, 2nd piece is the main event... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Nice donut hole lol. Strong storm though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Doesn't the GGEM show rain for lots of us?? Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Hopefully this can brew up to become a monster Spring storm.... It's eight days away, my goodness, it'll be a weak wave more likely than not in four or five days. Obviously not punting, but a bit early for a thread on this (or perhaps keep this thread, but add a separate one if this is still showing up in three days). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 It's eight days away, my goodness, it'll be a weak wave more likely than not in four or five days. Obviously not punting, but a bit early for a thread on this (or perhaps keep this thread, but add a separate one if this is still showing up in three days). Jesus christ WWW. This thread is supposed to be for the 1st system as well. Not just this big one. Hence the 1st-3rd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 It's eight days away, my goodness, it'll be a weak wave more likely than not in four or five days. Obviously not punting, but a bit early for a thread on this (or perhaps keep this thread, but add a separate one if this is still showing up in three days). You must think there's 31 days in Feb. March 1st is Sunday (5 days away) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 It's eight days away, my goodness, it'll be a weak wave more likely than not in four or five days. Obviously not punting, but a bit early for a thread on this (or perhaps keep this thread, but add a separate one if this is still showing up in three days).I kept them together for the purpose of keeping one main thread. The weekend wave is weak but looks like it is related to the 2nd bigger piece. We'll have to see how the models hand this overall threat. GFS/EURO still show some appreciable snow in the Plains/Midwest from the 1st wave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looks like Saturday Sunday is my only hope at this point. If part two really is that strong a rainer is a good bet. Living on the rain/snow line can be cruel. Best of luck to all on here though. We all need an award for surviving this brutal cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 00z Euro....1st wave (including clipper snows).... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 997 in N. MO at HR 168 on the EURO 850 mb line near WI/iL border Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 00z Euro...some of the precip in IL/IN/MO is a mixed bag...850's to warm...Euro is looking like the GFS though and trying to phase this system as it develops in the Central CONUS and heads towards the Lower Lakes. Should be fun tracking this storm. Very complex situation. Look at all that moisture.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 10"-12" imby plus any ratios, ill take it...however, as many times before this winter, hate to be in the bulls-eye this far outedit: looks like it would be a very wet snow, or mix here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow, winter could really go out with a bang. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 It's really a close call in IA from being rain along and S of I-80--- thickness levels over 540 for the bulk-- but it's still sees it as snow... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LAT = 40.85 LON = -96.66 00Z FEB25 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 18Z 02-MAR 1.5 -7.4 1029 41 97 0.02 562 539 TUE 00Z 03-MAR -0.3 -6.0 1024 49 98 0.00 560 541 TUE 06Z 03-MAR -1.9 -4.0 1020 77 97 0.04 559 543 TUE 12Z 03-MAR -1.9 -1.5 1013 94 92 0.08 554 544 TUE 18Z 03-MAR -0.8 -0.7 1006 97 87 0.41 549 544 WED 00Z 04-MAR -1.4 -2.6 1001 97 88 0.17 540 539 WED 06Z 04-MAR -4.2 -5.6 1009 89 91 0.11 540 533 WED 12Z 04-MAR -7.3 -8.4 1015 86 46 0.00 542 531 close..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 If this holds true, I don't see any liquid falling in Iowa except maybe far SW IA near Red Oak. Lots of potential for ice south and heavy snow north of I-80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 GFS Ensembles for the 1st wave: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPCN72NE_0z/f120.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 00z Euro...some of the precip in IL/IN/MO is a mixed bag...850's to warm...Euro is looking like the GFS though and trying to phase this system as it develops in the Central CONUS and heads towards the Lower Lakes. Should be fun tracking this storm. Very complex situation. Look at all that moisture.... Could this be the storm I've waited 3 months for! Fingers crossed! Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 1st wave is stronger/north so far through 90. Could be a solid 4-6 for Chicago area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 12z GFS....from 1st wave... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 2nd wave coming in wetter as well. Could be another good hit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 2nd storm hits MN/SD/ND/NE with 6+, Looks like a lot of freezing rain/sleet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 2nd storm hits MN/SD/ND/NE with 6+, Looks like a lot of freezing rain/sleet?Thats a phase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinomial Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Tom, what time are you thinking the first wave would start? Sunday morning? Want to know for travel reasons. Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looks like it's initial moisture ahead of the main LP system. LOW is still developing in MO at HR 150 (1004) with more precip developing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 2nd storm hits MN/SD/ND/NE with 6+, Looks like a lot of freezing rain/sleet?Ya, looks like it would be south of I'd say I-80. 12z GFS shows temps in the upper 20's and no snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Tom, what time are you thinking the first wave would start? Sunday morning? Want to know for travel reasons. Thanks!I'd guess around Sat midnight light snow begins to fall... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 12z GFS...second wave... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Living on the edge. Would be satisfied with that even if it gets washed away 24hrs later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 GFS wastes alot of the energy. Lots of potential with this thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 UKMET HR 144 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 UKMET HR 144 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gifDont like the double low look Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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