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November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

snow cold rain wind storm
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#1
MillCreekMike

Posted 31 October 2015 - 11:35 PM

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Hopefully we can score something during the second half of the month.


Mill Creek 2017-2018 Snowfall:

 

11/3/17: 0.25"

11/5/17: 1"

12/24/17: 2"

2/13/18: 0.5"

2/18/18: 0.5" (graupel)

2/21/18: 0.5"

2/25/18: 0.5" (graupel)

3/23/18: 0.25"

4/2/18 0.25" (graupel)

Total: 5.75"


#2
Tyler Mode

Posted 01 November 2015 - 06:37 AM

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I ended October with 4.24" of rain, above average with a mean temp of 57.2 degrees, almost 4 degrees above average.  Still not quite as warm as last October.



#3
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2015 - 06:44 AM

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Nice to have models coming out earlier now.


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#4
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2015 - 08:21 AM

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Nice to have models coming out earlier now.

 

Agreed!


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.0"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#5
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2015 - 08:26 AM

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After finishing October with almost 10 inches of rain here... already at .75 for November in the first 8 hours.

 

Seriously wet now.  

 

Snoqualmie River at moderate flood stage this morning.



#6
snow_wizard

Posted 01 November 2015 - 09:04 AM

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I'm thinking this will be a pretty interesting month with a decent chance of very low snow levels at some point.
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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#7
stuffradio

Posted 01 November 2015 - 09:08 AM

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We're almost in Nina territory by July in this latest update.

 

nino34MonadjPDFC.gif



#8
snow_wizard

Posted 01 November 2015 - 09:11 AM

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Currently snowing and 33 degrees at Stampeded Pass which is just shy of 4000 feet. Pretty good considering the coldest air isn't here yet. I'm glad they finally got that station back online.
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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#9
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 November 2015 - 09:39 AM

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Big time thunder and some lightning right now.


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#10
snow_wizard

Posted 01 November 2015 - 11:10 AM

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We're almost in Nina territory by July in this latest update.
 
nino34MonadjPDFC.gif


I'm betting that model has the SSTs falling too slowly. In 1998 the ENSO SSTs crashed in just a couple of months.
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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#11
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2015 - 11:19 AM

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Currently snowing and 33 degrees at Stampeded Pass which is just shy of 4000 feet. Pretty good considering the coldest air isn't here yet. I'm glad they finally got that station back online.

This is Allison Pass (4400ft) SE of Hope, BC.  6.5" on the ground there. 

65.jpg


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#12
HighlandExperience

Posted 01 November 2015 - 11:20 AM

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This is the most exciting weather we have seen in what 2 years? 


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#13
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2015 - 11:23 AM

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This is the most exciting weather we have seen in what 2 years? 

 

 

Thanksgiving weekend last year was far more exciting than this crap.


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#14
HighlandExperience

Posted 01 November 2015 - 11:30 AM

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Thanksgiving weekend last year was far more exciting than this crap.

 

Last year was so bland, I will take today. Reminded me of California. 


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#15
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2015 - 11:34 AM

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Last year was so bland, I will take today. Reminded me of California. 

 

 

Thanksgiving weekend last year was nothing like California.  



#16
HighlandExperience

Posted 01 November 2015 - 11:35 AM

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Thanksgiving weekend last year was nothing like California.  

 

I meant the entire winter in general. Just felt like we lived in California. Yucky. 


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#17
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2015 - 11:39 AM

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I meant the entire winter in general. Just felt like we lived in California. Yucky. 

 

Agreed. The last few years have been absolutely awful. It's very nice to have cool NW flow back. That is the #1 thing that has been sorely lacking for what seems like an eternity.

 

I really hope we never have to repeat two years this warm ever again. It has been disgusting.



#18
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2015 - 11:40 AM

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I meant the entire winter in general. Just felt like we lived in California. Yucky. 

 

This winter will end up basically the same... despite November.   



#19
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2015 - 11:43 AM

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Despite the earth-shattering cool down, PDX will probably manage 60 again today.



#20
BLI snowman

Posted 01 November 2015 - 11:59 AM

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Looks like a thoroughly average early November period in the coming days. Still chasing that first freeze, not even sure we'll manage that.


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#21
bainbridgekid

Posted 01 November 2015 - 11:59 AM

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Despite the earth-shattering cool down, PDX will probably manage 60 again today.

I haven't even considered turning the heat on yet.

I'm on the 5th floor so I'm starting to wonder if I can make it till Thanksgiving.

Mountlake Terrace 2017-18 snowfall:

 

11/3: 0.25"

11/5: 0.25"

12/24: 4"

2/18: 0.5"

2/21: 1"

2/25: 1"

3/23: 0.25"

 

Total: 7.25"

 

 


#22
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2015 - 12:00 PM

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Despite the earth-shattering cool down, PDX will probably manage 60 again today.

 

d**n I'm good!

 

Basically take what used to be the rules for Roseburg's climate and apply them to PDX and you've got a golden forecasting formula!



#23
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2015 - 12:01 PM

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Looks like a thoroughly average early November period in the coming days. Still chasing that first freeze, not even sure we'll manage that.

 

Yeah, really nothing remarkable about the next week or so.

 

Although I guess seeing average temps and some run of the mill mountain snow showers is a pretty remarkable feat lately.



#24
Phil

Posted 01 November 2015 - 12:05 PM

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I'm betting that model has the SSTs falling too slowly. In 1998 the ENSO SSTs crashed in just a couple of months.


I suspect the CFS is peaking the Niño SSTs too quickly, particularly in Niño 4 and Niño 3.4. A later peak followed by a more rapid midsummer decline is more likely, IMO.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#25
BLI snowman

Posted 01 November 2015 - 12:09 PM

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Yeah, really nothing remarkable about the next week or so.

 

Although I guess seeing average temps and some run of the mill mountain snow showers is a pretty remarkable feat lately.

 

Wednesday will be a bit fun to track the freeze potential, as it may be our last shot for awhile in outlying areas. 

 

OLM is playing with fire now, heading into November without a freeze for just the 4th time on record. The record latest first freeze date is November 10 there, set last year. 


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#26
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2015 - 12:13 PM

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Wednesday will be a bit fun to track the freeze potential, as it may be our last shot for awhile in outlying areas. 

 

OLM is playing with fire now, heading into November without a freeze for just the 4th time on record. The record latest first freeze date is November 10 there, set last year. 

 

I thought OLM was still solidly in the UHI proof -PDO phase though???



#27
snow_wizard

Posted 01 November 2015 - 12:48 PM

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I haven't even considered turning the heat on yet.

I'm on the 5th floor so I'm starting to wonder if I can make it till Thanksgiving.


I dunno. It's going to be a lot chillier in a couple of days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#28
snow_wizard

Posted 01 November 2015 - 12:55 PM

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Looks like a thoroughly average early November period in the coming days. Still chasing that first freeze, not even sure we'll manage that.


I don't think you are really giving this pattern change the recognition it deserves. We are going to have anomalous high heights over the GOA, anomalous low heights over the PNW, and anomalously low 850mb temps. Furthermore the ECMWF looks a bit colder than the GFS overall, with 850s dropping to -4 over SEA on day 9. I'll take it for now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#29
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2015 - 01:01 PM

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62 at PDX now.

 

Staring this incredibly chilly month off on a nice, torchy note!



#30
snow_wizard

Posted 01 November 2015 - 01:50 PM

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62 at PDX now.
 
Staring this incredibly chilly month off on a nice, torchy note!


It will get much better. It's only 51 here with strong onshore flow and the air mass isn't even as cold as it's going to get yet. I have no idea how PDX managed the low 60s though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#31
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2015 - 02:15 PM

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It will get much better. It's only 51 here with strong onshore flow and the air mass isn't even as cold as it's going to get yet. I have no idea how PDX managed the low 60s though.

 

They really seem to maximize warmth regardless of the pattern lately.

 

Today definitely didn't look like a 62-63 on the models.



#32
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2015 - 02:33 PM

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So to recap... its miserable outside.   There is snow in the mountains.    Huge deep trough over us while the rest of the country is enjoying enviably beautiful weather.

 

And yet... I still see lots of complaining on here.   Like Eeyore.   Kicking the dirt and always pouting.   Woe is me.    :lol:



#33
Deweydog

Posted 01 November 2015 - 03:14 PM

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Airport temperatures give me ulcers, just like temperatures everywhere else.  


All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#34
Front Ranger

Posted 01 November 2015 - 04:00 PM

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Looks like a thoroughly average early November period in the coming days. Still chasing that first freeze, not even sure we'll manage that.

 

Nah, first 7-10 days of the month will be below average most places. 


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#35
Deweydog

Posted 01 November 2015 - 04:13 PM

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Nah, first 7-10 days of the month will be below average most places.


Like your October cold call or actual cold?

Fun!!!
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#36
stuffradio

Posted 01 November 2015 - 04:21 PM

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62 at PDX now.

 

Staring this incredibly chilly month off on a nice, torchy note!

I don't think it even reached 50 here. It's 45 right now and pouring. Super torchy.



#37
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2015 - 04:44 PM

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Defense actually stepped up and won a close game.   Much nicer going into the bye week at 4-4.   Would have been a long 2 weeks if we had to watch Dan Bailey win it with a 55 yard field goal and fall to 3-5.


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#38
stuffradio

Posted 01 November 2015 - 04:48 PM

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High elevations can receive up to just under 8" of snow tonight in a large area of BC. Good for the snow pack!



#39
Front Ranger

Posted 01 November 2015 - 05:44 PM

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Like your October cold call or actual cold?

Fun!!!

 

Actual anomalies below average.

 

Soothing.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#40
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2015 - 05:49 PM

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Actual anomalies below average.

Soothing.


Not likely.

Historical daily averages will be dipping below 50 soon. That's a lot for Redding Jr. (PDX) to keep up with. Don't pressure the little guy!

#41
Deweydog

Posted 01 November 2015 - 05:53 PM

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Actual anomalies below average.

Soothing.


Mmmmmmm... like Tucks medicated pads.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#42
Deweydog

Posted 01 November 2015 - 05:55 PM

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Defense actually stepped up and won a close game. Much nicer going into the bye week at 4-4. Would have been a long 2 weeks if we had to watch Dan Bailey win it with a 55 yard field goal and fall to 3-5.


Garbage game. Two teams going nowhere in the second half.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#43
luminen

Posted 01 November 2015 - 06:17 PM

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I don't think it even reached 50 here. It's 45 right now and pouring. Super torchy.

 

The high today here was 53F at midnight and continued to fall throughout the day. It was 48F at noon and it's 45F now. Feels cold...



#44
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2015 - 06:29 PM

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Garbage game. Two teams going nowhere in the second half.

 

 

Two points...

 

1) They actually had a sustained drive when they needed it at the end of the game using up 5 minutes and taking the lead.

 

2) The defense stood up and did not allow them to get the 30 yards they needed to try a field goal.

 

 

Those are improvements.


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#45
MossMan

Posted 01 November 2015 - 06:31 PM

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Garbage game. Two teams going nowhere in the second half.


Hmmm...did you say something similar last year when they were 3-3 or was that someone else? If not for mostly bad luck the Seahawks could very well be at 7-1 or even 8-0. We still have what it takes to go back to the big game like last year.
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#46
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 November 2015 - 06:34 PM

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Garbage game. Two teams going nowhere in the second half.

Thanks Deweypup!!



#47
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2015 - 06:48 PM

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I would take the Seahawks losing every game for the next 30 years if it meant we could have 1945-1975 WX in that period. :wub:

Heck, I would take them losing every game for the next 30 years even if it didn't. Great thing about not caring about a silly sports team. :)
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#48
BLI snowman

Posted 01 November 2015 - 07:15 PM

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Nah, first 7-10 days of the month will be below average most places.


Wouldn`t bet on it.

#49
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2015 - 07:21 PM

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Wouldn`t bet on it.


Yeah. Highs 55-60 and lows 45-50 down here ain't gonna cut it.

#50
stuffradio

Posted 01 November 2015 - 08:49 PM

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It's been raining here in biblical proportions tonight. I wonder what the rain gauge will read tomorrow. The visibility was down quite a bit while driving tonight.







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