[Missing] March 2022 PNW Wx Discussion

[seattleweatherguy]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

In other news, the new CANSIPS seasonal projects another brutal summer in the SW US.

Similar to 2021 with the expansive 4CH.

Phil that looks like the entire USA is torching. Should we expect another hot summer for WA and OR?

[Eujunga]

31 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

Phil that looks like the entire USA is torching. Should we expect another hot summer for WA and OR?

I see a dark blue dot over Tim's house (and a dark red one over mine).

[T-Town]

58 degrees here with a little sun. Toasty. 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Today:  2.80"
3-Day: 10.44"
Year:    31.19"

 

Side note... we are 30% of the way to normal March rainfall by afternoon on the first day.  

[Phil]

59 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

has there ever been a 3 year back to back to back nina?  Are we headed toward that super rare territory?

Yes, 1998/99 to 2000/01. And 2001/02 was cold neutral.

[gusky]

Don't know if anyone cares about this but tried Microsoft Flight Simulator and Seattle is modeled really well. The game uses real-time flight and weather data

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Mostly cloudy 57/52 day here .35” precip in the form of showers

The cool period that has been advertised the next several days seems to be getting watered down 

[TT-SEA]

Some road flooding down below us... but we got off so easy considering almost a foot of rain as fallen since Saturday.    In January 2009... this road was completely destroyed by flooding.   It was just washed away.    Much better this time around.

[Deweydog]

Almost one down, 274 to go until winter…

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, gusky said:

Don't know if anyone cares about this but tried Microsoft Flight Simulator and Seattle is modeled really well. The game uses real-time flight and weather data

 

As it should be, given it's Microsoft.

[GHweatherChris]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Thanks... was hoping for an update.  

Almost 3 inches on the day after the big rain event.    

And just about a foot of rain in 72 hours... without any major flooding.   Impressive!  

Not even close to a foot.

[gusky]

25 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

As it should be, given it's Microsoft.

I've seen way better graphics with it when people mod it with google maps data, bing maps is not quite on the same level of quality

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Not even close to a foot.

Pretty close... about 11 inches up here since Saturday.    

[Phil]

Can see Tim’s island of blue in a sea of orange.

[Front Ranger]

31 minutes ago, gusky said:

I've seen way better graphics with it when people mod it with google maps data, bing maps is not quite on the same level of quality

I just meant because Microsoft is based there. 

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

Can see Tim’s island of blue in a sea of orange.

Do you have that map from October - February?     

Or how about SON?    

 

 

[GHweatherChris]

47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty close... about 11 inches up here since Saturday.    

If we were talking snow, ya it would be close to a foot.  But another inch of rain, nah, not even close.

[gusky]

18 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I just meant because Microsoft is based there. 

You'd think they'd work on it a bit more than other cities, but it still has issues with the water level (the sound seems to be at an extreme, record high flood level or something) and other details. Overall, very detailed though. I even flew near a couple buildings I'm familiar with and they look pretty much the same as real life, I don't really know how that's possible.

[Blizzard777]

2 hours ago, gusky said:

Don't know if anyone cares about this but tried Microsoft Flight Simulator and Seattle is modeled really well. The game uses real-time flight and weather data

 

Luv the sim….played since inception “almost” but i did drop the ball this past couple years.  To much going on so haven’t tried the new one.   City’s definitely modeled quite well in the sim!!!   Enjoy

Gorgeous afternoon and warm 

59/50

 

[MossMan]

Don’t think my snow will survive the night…Was a good run though! 
55/48 on the day. Currently 50.

.13” on the day, 10.65” on the year. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Flight simulator is great. But Dallas, TX is a joke. Just a bunch of generic blocks.

[gusky]

15 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Flight simulator is great. But Dallas, TX is a joke. Just a bunch of generic blocks.

I'll have to check it out later tonight. Interested to see how consistent the quality is. Like I said before, Seattle is quite impressive but for some environmental issues. But the fact that I can navigate my way around the city based on specific buildings and landmarks, in a 1:1 earth map, is still mind-blowing to me.

[TacomaWaWx]

57/50 today 0.23”. Probably a midnight low. 

[TacomaWaWx]

final stats for 21-22

DEC 4.62” 11.0” snow -2.1 

JAN 7.47” 0.0” snow -0.1

FEB 4.92” 0.3” snow -0.5

 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... last week you said we would learn how everything shifts north and the AR event would end up in BC.    

And yet we still managed to pick up almost a foot of rain in 3 days in my area and SEA had one of the wettest days ever recorded and almost 5 inches of rain since Saturday.     Trust the EPS over the 18Z GFS.  

It did trend north. The 00z GFS is almost bone dry for about two weeks starting on Thursday. It is just not possible to enter a sustained rainy pattern. We pay for every rain event with weeks of dryness.
 

[Mr Marine Layer]

13 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Radar shows another large area of heavy rain moving in now... although it did stop raining here for a few minutes which is the first time that has happened since Saturday.

ARs are fun

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS (Day 1-10)

00z GEM (Day 1-10)

[Dan the Weatherman]

9 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

has there ever been a 3 year back to back to back nina?  Are we headed toward that super rare territory?

1998-99 through 2000-01 was a rare 3 year La Nina.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

52F with some light rain. Up to 0.3" on the month so a nice start.

[TT-SEA]

4 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

It did trend north. The 00z GFS is almost bone dry for about two weeks starting on Thursday. It is just not possible to enter a sustained rainy pattern. We pay for every rain event with weeks of dryness.
 

And yet PDX is +2 inches for the water year... while SEA is +7 inches and OLM is almost +9 inches and BLI is +6 inches.

You said this recent AR event would end up in BC and that definitely did not happen.

It has not been a dry rainy season from NW OR northward.    And there has been multiple snow events and flooding events.   Solid Nina.    The fact that it has come in waves with some nice periods in between makes it more enjoyable in my opinion.     All of the models now point to zonal flow starting next week so its going to get wet again.  

[TT-SEA]

3 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

ARs are fun

They can be pretty fun as long as the flooding is not too extreme.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

11 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... last week you said we would learn how everything shifts north and the AR event would end up in BC.    

And yet we still managed to pick up almost a foot of rain in 3 days in my area and SEA had one of the wettest days ever recorded and almost 5 inches of rain since Saturday.     Trust the EPS over the 18Z GFS.  

All I know is that we need that rain here. I’m getting worried for the ecosystem and am becoming annoyed with all the warmer weather pests that are becoming problematic like Coypu. Had one of them below our house.

[SouthHillFrosty]

45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

They can be pretty fun as long as the flooding is not too extreme.

Tim is joining the night shift tonight!

[Chewbacca Defense]

10 hours ago, gusky said:

I'll have to check it out later tonight. Interested to see how consistent the quality is. Like I said before, Seattle is quite impressive but for some environmental issues. But the fact that I can navigate my way around the city based on specific buildings and landmarks, in a 1:1 earth map, is still mind-blowing to me.

It is really impressive, I *may or may not* have about 800 hours in the sim....  If only I could count that towards real flight hours....

The detail is good enough I can fly the areas I have lived/grown up in per the common moniker of VFR (visually follow roads).  Following Mt Baker Hwy up to the ski area can be a little tricky if I'm not using my head tracking set up.  The hard part is keeping an eye on the road while avoiding "cumulo-granite clouds" as you get up close to the ski area.  With head tracking its a piece of cake.

I have tried the google map plug in, but I haven't quite decided which one I like better, it seems to depend on the area.

There is a freeware Airbus H145 (helicopter) that is a lot of fun, and it makes it a lot easier to get in and check things out since you can hover or slowly pivot around the object of interest.

 

[Phil]

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

It has not been a dry rainy season from NW OR northward.    And there has been multiple snow events and flooding events.   Solid Nina.    The fact that it has come in waves with some nice periods in between makes it more enjoyable in my opinion.     All of the models now point to zonal flow starting next week so its going to get wet again.  

Lies.

That dry midwinter stretch neutered the benefits of the early season surpluses.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lies.

It has been a wet rainy season... regardless of what that map shows.    But of course that map is only from December and I am talking about the entire rainy season which begins October 1st.  The actual data from actual stations tells the tale.

SEA +7.01

OLM +8.76

BLI +5.68

HWM +7.67

UIL +19.69  (yes... 19 inches above normal since October 1st)

AST +6.79

PDX +2.08

 

That is not just random... its been wetter than normal from PDX to BLI.

 

 

[Phil]

If only this could happen in July.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It has been a wet rainy season... regardless of what that map shows.    The actual data from actual stations tells the tale.

SEA +7.01

OLM +8.76

BLI +5.68

HWM +7.67

UIL +19.69  (yes... 19 inches above normal since October 1st)

AST +6.79

PDX +2.08

 

That is not just random... its been wetter than normal from PDX to BLI.

 

 

It’s a map of DJF precip at all regional stations.

Doesn’t include Oct/Nov, but the benefits of that were largely erased by the midwinter dry spell. Context is important.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

It’s DJF precip at all regional stations, not just the ones you cherry picked.

Doesn’t include Oct/Nov, but the benefits of that were largely erased by the midwinter dry spell.

Those aren't cherry picked stations.   

Those are all the major reporting stations from PDX to BLI.     And DJF was closer to normal but we made up ground in a big way since last weekend... completely wiping out the dry period statistically for western WA.

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

If only this could happen in July.

Its interesting to see the models focusing the cold in the Midwest and NE in the long range now.   I was expecting that to be farther west.  

[gusky]

1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

It is really impressive, I *may or may not* have about 800 hours in the sim....  If only I could count that towards real flight hours....

The detail is good enough I can fly the areas I have lived/grown up in per the common moniker of VFR (visually follow roads).  Following Mt Baker Hwy up to the ski area can be a little tricky if I'm not using my head tracking set up.  The hard part is keeping an eye on the road while avoiding "cumulo-granite clouds" as you get up close to the ski area.  With head tracking its a piece of cake.

I have tried the google map plug in, but I haven't quite decided which one I like better, it seems to depend on the area.

There is a freeware Airbus H145 (helicopter) that is a lot of fun, and it makes it a lot easier to get in and check things out since you can hover or slowly pivot around the object of interest.

 

Wow, do the physics of the helicopter actually work? Seems like it would have issues with plane physics. I'll have to get that one.

[Phil]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its interesting to see the models focusing the cold in the Midwest and NE in the long range now.   I was expecting that to be farther west.  

Yeah, at least in the very long range. The center of the cold anomaly might move around with time, but the cold conus theme is fairly consistent.

This transition lines up excellently with the stratwarm and location of the parent vortex in Siberia following w-2 response, as well. For once it was a clear signal with a moderate to high degree of predictability.

[RentonHill]

26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its interesting to see the models focusing the cold in the Midwest and NE in the long range now.   I was expecting that to be farther west.  

GFS is having a wee bit of trouble figuring this one out. 

[Phil]

But alas, it does not meet criteria for a SSW, and the vortex will likely recover before the final warming (though this might set the stage for it).

So the MJO will have less help from the associated reduction in static stability, which reduces the odds of significant WWBs over the IPWP/WPAC, and therefore the odds of a transition into El Niño appear to be decreasing. Or at the very least, it is now unlikely to be a quick transition.

[Phil]

Jan-Mar is the most crucial time of year when it comes to setting the stage for ENSO. So every missed opportunity to cross that threshold has consequences.

Could be the system has tripped and fallen just before reaching the finish line. Question is, will it pick itself up and sprint those last 5 meters before the other racers (possible evolutionary pathways) pass it?

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

GFS is having a wee bit of trouble figuring this one out. 

This would actually be the coldest airmass to drop into the CONUS all winter. -30°C 850mb temps in the N-Plains, verbatim. Maybe @hawkstwelve will catch some last minute action.

 

[Blizzard777]

12 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Flight simulator is great. But Dallas, TX is a joke. Just a bunch of generic blocks.

I love Troutdale area when the east winds are blowing…..fun landings.  I can also take the Cessna off like a cub piper with no runway if winds are blowing hard enough

[AlTahoe]

Wow the GFS for a few days showed the storm door opening for us. Now it has the same pattern we have seen since Jan 1st. This historic dry pattern is just getting crazy now. Our snowpack survey at Philips station just came in at 68% of normal even though we were at 160% of normal Jan 1st. March is our snowiest month and it is looking bleak

[Phil]

12z GFS has a full blown SSW/final warming in the clown range, after the initial body blow this week.

A much more interesting evolution, imo. And all else being equal, would give the MJO an extra boost along/east of the dateline.

[jakerepp]

17 hours ago, gusky said:

Don't know if anyone cares about this but tried Microsoft Flight Simulator and Seattle is modeled really well. The game uses real-time flight and weather data

 

What are you running it on and how are you controlling it?

I got pretty proficient in FSX on a laptop using just a mouse and keyboard, so when I tried the new FS I was disappointed that everything I remembered didn't work.