[Missing] March 2022 PNW Wx Discussion

[Meatyorologist]

It's coming.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ready for the madness baby?!

[SouthHillFrosty]

10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Ready for the madness baby?!

LETS GOOOOO

[Meatyorologist]

This has trended favorably in the last few days.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Somehow the rainfall rates increased between midnight and 3 AM. Already at 1.30” for the day. Ended up with 5.73” yesterday. It’s only Tuesday morning and we’re about to pass 9” for the week so far. 

Good Lord.   Already getting a jump start on March.

Just went outside and its still pouring rain... and the sound of roaring water in the background is disturbingly loud.

And yet our roadside grass will still be burnt and brown by July as usual.  

[TT-SEA]

Pretty strong signal for a cold spell next week on the 00Z EPS... and then a transition to a wetter pattern later in the run.    The 10-15 day period looks like an excellent mountain snow pattern.   

[TacomaWaWx]

Wound up with 3.20” of rain yesterday just 0.13” short of 1/7/09. Finished February with 4.92” of rain and a -0.5 departure. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Pretty nuts that the models are catching onto snow in March now. I’m content with how this winters played out…would love to see it but fine if it doesn’t either. 0.14” this morning here low of 52. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Euro looked decent but of course now that it does the gfs OP jumped ship (for now). 

[Blizzard777]

3.13 precipitation yesterday and currently……raining. Rest of the rain stats below.

Hello MaRcH  

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

3.13 precipitation yesterday and currently……raining. Rest of the rain stats below.

Hello MaRcH  

Torrential rain here again... coming down in buckets.    Just drove around to check out the roads and there water roaring through every seasonal stream but so far there are no wash outs in this area.

[TacomaWaWx]

36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Torrential rain here again... coming down in buckets.    Just drove around to check out the roads and there water roaring through every seasonal stream but so far there are no wash outs in this area.

Roads got messed up here after this rainstorm. Hit a huge pothole the size of half the lane I was in. Knocked the oil pan off the bottom of my car. 

[MossMan]

.11” so far on the day, and crazy enough only .11” so far on the month! 
dribbles and 48 degrees. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Roads got messed up here after this rainstorm. Hit a huge pothole the size of half the lane I was in. Knocked the oil pan off the bottom of my car. 

Wow... that sucks.

[TacomaWaWx]

0.16” so far this morning. Pretty mild but thankfully the rains let up a bit. Picked up 4.12” in 36 hours which is pretty excessive. 4.92” for February is 1.22” above normal. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Roads got messed up here after this rainstorm. Hit a huge pothole the size of half the lane I was in. Knocked the oil pan off the bottom of my car. 

Yikes! Did you get your engine shut off in time? 

[Timmy Supercell]

Almost commented on February (lol)

Looks like winter is on its way out.

It "can" snow in March out here, probably just for one night and freezing highs I don't think are possible this late in the season. I heard about 1993. But then I also hear about the Marches that don't snow. This could be one of them.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, MossMan said:

Yikes! Did you get your engine shut off in time? 

Yeah I realized what happened pretty quickly lol. There’s tons of potholes on the streets here unfortunately pretty amazing how quickly it can happen during a big rainstorm. 

[Timmy Supercell]

My last measurable snow was almost a full month ago. After that just a couple traces, essentially teases. 

[Skagit Weather]

The big 48 hour winners from Sunday/Monday (places with 5"+):

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
726 AM PST Tue Mar 1 2022

...PRECIPITATION REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Lat/Lon
OLYMPIC NP BISHOP QUINAULT 4 14.41 in  0705 AM 03/01   47.51N/123.81W
Quinault 2.2 NE              9.16 in   0700 AM 03/01   47.49N/123.82W
Johnson Ridge                7.79 in   0529 AM 03/01   47.80N/121.29W
Mud Mountain Dam             7.70 in   0700 AM 03/01   47.14N/121.94W
North Bend 5.4 ESE           7.00 in   0630 AM 03/01   47.47N/121.68W
Humptullips                  6.78 in   0708 AM 03/01   47.38N/123.76W
Owl Mountain                 6.40 in   0700 AM 03/01   47.77N/123.97W
Ohanapecosh                  6.38 in   0641 AM 03/01   46.73N/121.57W
Fire Training Academy        6.34 in   0707 AM 03/01   47.46N/121.67W
North Bend                   6.28 in   0715 AM 03/01   47.45N/121.73W
Lakebay 5.7 WNW              6.21 in   0600 AM 03/01   47.23N/122.88W
4.0 W Hoodsport (SEWWFO)     6.10 in   0700 AM 03/01   47.42N/123.22W
Verlot (SEWWFO)              6.10 in   0700 AM 03/01   48.09N/121.78W
1.0 NW Duvall                5.88 in   0630 AM 03/01   47.74N/121.99W
Gig Harbor 7.0 WNW           5.79 in   0700 AM 03/01   47.38N/122.72W
North Bend                   5.57 in   0716 AM 03/01   47.47N/121.80W
Black Knob                   5.56 in   0531 AM 03/01   47.41N/124.10W
4 NNE Snoqualmie Pass        5.21 in   0715 AM 03/01   47.48N/121.39W
11.3 W Mount Olympus (SEWWFO 5.20 in   0700 AM 03/01   47.86N/123.93W
Minot Peak                   5.13 in   0700 AM 03/01   46.89N/123.42W
Cinebar                      5.10 in   0700 AM 03/01   46.61N/122.50W
Shelton                      5.03 in   0653 AM 03/01   47.23N/123.13W
Finney Creek                 5.01 in   0528 AM 03/01   48.39N/121.82W
Marblemount                  5.01 in   0712 AM 03/01   48.54N/121.45W
Longmire (SEWWFO)            5.00 in   0700 AM 03/01   46.75N/121.81W

[Blizzard777]

49 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Torrential rain here again... coming down in buckets.    Just drove around to check out the roads and there water roaring through every seasonal stream but so far there are no wash outs in this area.

Lots of urban flooding locally as well. stayed off the road yesterday but will venture out in a bit.  Atmospheric rivers seem to be the theme that sticks out over the past few months.  
 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Very mild low of 52 to start out March and meteorological spring but could go lower by midnight.

Ended February with a little over 3” of rain, over 2.5” of that fell the last three days of the month. Hoping March precip is more spread out 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

The big 48 hour winners from Sunday/Monday (places with 5"+):

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
726 AM PST Tue Mar 1 2022

...PRECIPITATION REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Lat/Lon
OLYMPIC NP BISHOP QUINAULT 4 14.41 in  0705 AM 03/01   47.51N/123.81W
Quinault 2.2 NE              9.16 in   0700 AM 03/01   47.49N/123.82W
Johnson Ridge                7.79 in   0529 AM 03/01   47.80N/121.29W
Mud Mountain Dam             7.70 in   0700 AM 03/01   47.14N/121.94W
North Bend 5.4 ESE           7.00 in   0630 AM 03/01   47.47N/121.68W
Humptullips                  6.78 in   0708 AM 03/01   47.38N/123.76W
Owl Mountain                 6.40 in   0700 AM 03/01   47.77N/123.97W
Ohanapecosh                  6.38 in   0641 AM 03/01   46.73N/121.57W
Fire Training Academy        6.34 in   0707 AM 03/01   47.46N/121.67W
North Bend                   6.28 in   0715 AM 03/01   47.45N/121.73W
Lakebay 5.7 WNW              6.21 in   0600 AM 03/01   47.23N/122.88W
4.0 W Hoodsport (SEWWFO)     6.10 in   0700 AM 03/01   47.42N/123.22W
Verlot (SEWWFO)              6.10 in   0700 AM 03/01   48.09N/121.78W
1.0 NW Duvall                5.88 in   0630 AM 03/01   47.74N/121.99W
Gig Harbor 7.0 WNW           5.79 in   0700 AM 03/01   47.38N/122.72W
North Bend                   5.57 in   0716 AM 03/01   47.47N/121.80W
Black Knob                   5.56 in   0531 AM 03/01   47.41N/124.10W
4 NNE Snoqualmie Pass        5.21 in   0715 AM 03/01   47.48N/121.39W
11.3 W Mount Olympus (SEWWFO 5.20 in   0700 AM 03/01   47.86N/123.93W
Minot Peak                   5.13 in   0700 AM 03/01   46.89N/123.42W
Cinebar                      5.10 in   0700 AM 03/01   46.61N/122.50W
Shelton                      5.03 in   0653 AM 03/01   47.23N/123.13W
Finney Creek                 5.01 in   0528 AM 03/01   48.39N/121.82W
Marblemount                  5.01 in   0712 AM 03/01   48.54N/121.45W
Longmire (SEWWFO)            5.00 in   0700 AM 03/01   46.75N/121.81W

North Bend area on the list multiples times.

[TT-SEA]

Radar shows another large area of heavy rain moving in now... although it did stop raining here for a few minutes which is the first time that has happened since Saturday.

[Meatyorologist]

28 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

The big 48 hour winners from Sunday/Monday (places with 5"+):

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
726 AM PST Tue Mar 1 2022

...PRECIPITATION REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Lat/Lon
what if it were snow         14.41 in  0705 AM 03/01   47.51N/123.81W
Quinault 2.2 NE              9.16 in   0700 AM 03/01   47.49N/123.82W
Johnson Ridge                7.79 in   0529 AM 03/01   47.80N/121.29W
Mud Mountain Dam             7.70 in   0700 AM 03/01   47.14N/121.94W
Tim                          too much  0630 AM 03/01   47.47N/121.68W
Humptullips                  6.78 in   0708 AM 03/01   47.38N/123.76W
Owl Mountain                 6.40 in   0700 AM 03/01   47.77N/123.97W
Ohanapecosh                  6.38 in   0641 AM 03/01   46.73N/121.57W
Fire Training Academy        6.34 in   0707 AM 03/01   47.46N/121.67W
North Bend                   6.28 in   0715 AM 03/01   47.45N/121.73W
Lakebay 5.7 WNW              6.21 in   0600 AM 03/01   47.23N/122.88W
4.0 W Hoodsport (SEWWFO)     6.10 in   0700 AM 03/01   47.42N/123.22W
Verlot (SEWWFO)              6.10 in   0700 AM 03/01   48.09N/121.78W
1.0 NW Duvall                5.88 in   0630 AM 03/01   47.74N/121.99W
Gig Harbor 7.0 WNW           5.79 in   0700 AM 03/01   47.38N/122.72W
North Bend                   5.57 in   0716 AM 03/01   47.47N/121.80W
Black Knob                   5.56 in   0531 AM 03/01   47.41N/124.10W
4 NNE Snoqualmie Pass        5.21 in   0715 AM 03/01   47.48N/121.39W
11.3 W Mount Olympus (SEWWFO 5.20 in   0700 AM 03/01   47.86N/123.93W
Minot Peak                   5.13 in   0700 AM 03/01   46.89N/123.42W
Cinebar                      5.10 in   0700 AM 03/01   46.61N/122.50W
Shelton                      5.03 in   0653 AM 03/01   47.23N/123.13W
Finney Creek                 5.01 in   0528 AM 03/01   48.39N/121.82W
Marblemount                  5.01 in   0712 AM 03/01   48.54N/121.45W
Joshua                      -5.00 in   0700 AM 03/01   0.00N/121.81W

ftfy

[Timmy Supercell]

Finally impressive AR's in early Spring? Remembering ones like 2014 and felt like it's been years since you guys got good ones this time of year. It wasn't unusual to have them plow into the Klamath area either. 

[awright-31]

02-28-2022 OBS for MBY - AR edition

High temp - 54* recorded at 12:15 pm
Low temp - 49* recorded at 12:01 am

New precip - 1.84"
Total February precip - 5.40"
We have received 102% of our normal February precip 100% of the way through the month.
91% of our February precip was recorded in the last 3 days of the month.
(I didn't think in a million years this would end up being a wetter than normal month)

New snow - 0"
Final met winter snow total 21-22 - 10.9"

[T-Town]

35 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Snoqualmie Falls at 8 AM:

Wow

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Very mild low of 52 to start out March and meteorological spring but could go lower by midnight.

Ended February with a little over 3” of rain, over 2.5” of that fell the last three days of the month. Hoping March precip is more spread out 

Finished yesterday with 2.45" here.

Wettest calendar day here since 2/12/2019.

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Almost commented on February (lol)

Looks like winter is on its way out.

It "can" snow in March out here, probably just for one night and freezing highs I don't think are possible this late in the season. I heard about 1993. But then I also hear about the Marches that don't snow. This could be one of them.

 

Subfreezing highs are absolutely possible for you in March.

It looks like Ashland's latest freezing or lower high was 32 on 3/27/1937.

Their coldest March maximum was 19 on 3/4/2014.

[TT-SEA]

Current view here... more heavy rain.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

My last measurable snow was almost a full month ago. After that just a couple traces, essentially teases. 

That’s classic La Niña. Streaky.

They also like to throw curveballs in the spring. I doubt you’ve seen your last snowfall.

[Timmy Supercell]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Subfreezing highs are absolutely possible for you in March.

It looks like Ashland's latest freezing or lower high was 32 on 3/27/1937.

Their coldest March maximum was 19 on 3/4/2014.

That's pretty impressive. I lived over 4000 feet high for 11 years and March rarely had highs freezing or below. 

I still think thats short lived, in middle of winter here we don't get 2 week long freezes.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Current view here... more heavy rain.

Safe to say your snow is gone! My piles made it into March! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

These stats for Baker City in February are bonkers!

[Phil]

Mentioned in the Feb thread, the recent downwelling OKW has been inefficient at depressing the thermocline east of the dateline.

I’m not sure why, tbh. Head scratcher. But unless there’s another one soon, the odds of a transition into El Niño seem to be decreasing markedly.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Mentioned in the Feb thread, the recent downwelling OKW has been inefficient at depressing the thermocline east of the dateline.

I’m not sure why, tbh. Head scratcher. But unless there’s another one soon, the odds of a transition into El Niño seem to be decreasing markedly.

Neutral would be great in my opinion.  

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Seems to good to be true still feel like we are probably primed for one 

Not a done deal yet, but if the dominoes fall correctly maybe we can push it back by a year?

Next 8 weeks are super critical. This MJO event might be the last chance to get the wheels moving in the El Niño direction.

I’m honestly quite surprised given how primed the system state appeared to be just a month ago.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not a done deal yet, but if the dominoes fall correctly maybe we can push it back by a year?

Next 8 weeks are super critical. This MJO event might be the last chance to get the wheels moving in the El Niño direction.

I’m honestly quite surprised given how primed the system state appeared to be just a month ago.

wasnt there an equal level of surprise at how quickly and just how primed the system state came to be a month ago? Or am i thinking of something else. I remember seeing a tweet like "and all the sudden its 2015 again" or something like that

[BLI snowman]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Mentioned in the Feb thread, the recent downwelling OKW has been inefficient at depressing the thermocline east of the dateline.

I’m not sure why, tbh. Head scratcher. But unless there’s another one soon, the odds of a transition into El Niño seem to be decreasing markedly.

A genuine neutral year would be sweet.

Last one was 2013-14.

[Phil]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

wasnt there an equal level of surprise at how quickly and just how primed the system state came to be a month ago? Or am i thinking of something else. I remember seeing a tweet like "and all the sudden its 2015 again" or something like that

That was in relation to the intraseasonal state but yeah the midwinter flip to +TNH was a sight to behold. As if the system was dead set on taking that route.

As for ENSO, remains to be seen how it shakes out (seasonal transitions messy) but if the upcoming WPAC MJO transit doesn’t trigger a healthy OKW then it muddies the waters for the remainder of 2022.

[Meatyorologist]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

Mentioned in the Feb thread, the recent downwelling OKW has been inefficient at depressing the thermocline east of the dateline.

I’m not sure why, tbh. Head scratcher. But unless there’s another one soon, the odds of a transition into El Niño seem to be decreasing markedly.

I've got a warm neutral feeling to next winter. Not much snow. We're due for a dud in my area.

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

A genuine neutral year would be sweet.

Last one was 2013-14.

I’ll drink to that. Easily my second favorite winter of all time and possibly my favorite weather year overall.

Snowed from November to April, multiple 12”+ snowfalls, including all-time record cold/snow in March, and a persistent snowpack through the winter with few warm-ups. Which almost never happens here.

Then it was followed by a deliciously cool summer in 2014, with multiple significant severe events in NW flow. Solid all around.

[Timmy Supercell]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ll drink to that. Easily my second favorite winter of all time and possibly my favorite weather year overall.

Snowed from November to April, multiple 12”+ snowfalls, including all-time record cold/snow in March, and a persistent snowpack through the winter with few warm-ups. Which almost never happens here.

Then it was followed by a deliciously cool summer in 2014, with multiple significant severe events in NW flow. Solid all around.

And back where I used to live, July had its record hottest in 2014 (that still stands!). Wall to wall 90-99 degree weather for a month, then kind of averaged out in August. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows a mercifully dry weekend ahead... might have to get some yardwork done before the hammer likely drops again next week.  

[BLI snowman]

36 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ll drink to that. Easily my second favorite winter of all time and possibly my favorite weather year overall.

Snowed from November to April, multiple 12”+ snowfalls, including all-time record cold/snow in March, and a persistent snowpack through the winter with few warm-ups. Which almost never happens here.

Then it was followed by a deliciously cool summer in 2014, with multiple significant severe events in NW flow. Solid all around.

A rare winter that was both enjoyable here locally and also really great for you. 1995-96 and 1978-79 would count as well.

[Phil]

20 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

A rare winter that was both enjoyable here locally and also really great for you. 1995-96 and 1978-79 would count as well.

I think 2018/19 would qualify as well. That was an excellent winter here, and February went bonkers out there in the NW.

[Phil]

In other news, the new CANSIPS seasonal projects another brutal summer in the SW US.

Similar to 2021 with the expansive 4CH.

[Thunder98]

Geez, next month is already April….