[Missing] March 2022 PNW Wx Discussion

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows a transition to zonal flow at the end of the run... looks like a wet pattern.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

A genuine neutral year would be sweet.

Last one was 2013-14.

I don’t remember anything noteworthy that happened that season, I will need to look at my picture archives! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

In other news, the new CANSIPS seasonal projects another brutal summer in the SW US.

Similar to 2021 with the expansive 4CH.

Hard to pick out the 4CH in the sea of warmth looks like it’s maybe been displaced to the Nebraska/Iowa border. At least it shows the far NW closest to average 

[The Ms. Anthrop]

Woke up with a lake front condo this morning! Am considering getting out there in my wellies and digging a trench to the main drain in hopes of bringing the water level down. The doggo was not pleased with the prospect of having to poop in 2+ inches of standing water. The Cedar river in Renton has also overflowed it's banks in multiple areas through downtown river walk. Good times! All of this is making me wonder what the Ides of March have in store for us...

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I don’t remember anything noteworthy that happened that season, I will need to look at my picture archives! 

February was our best month.   I think the dreaded "blob" was allegedly a factor.  It was the only year since I have been here that we didn't have a white Christmas. 

[Timmy Supercell]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I don’t remember anything noteworthy that happened that season, I will need to look at my picture archives! 

A cold, but mostly dry winter. That was one of the few times northwest Oregon had bigger snowstorms than me.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hard to pick out the 4CH in the sea of warmth looks like it’s maybe been displaced to the Nebraska/Iowa border. At least it shows the far NW closest to average 

Yes but that’s the type of pattern that could send big heat into the PNW with slight changes. And would roast the intermountain west.

Generally speaking, a large 4CH is not what you want to see if you’re hoping for a cool western summer.

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, The Ms. Anthrop said:

Woke up with a lake front condo this morning! Am considering getting out there in my wellies and digging a trench to the main drain in hopes of bringing the water level down. The doggo was not pleased with the prospect of having to poop in 2+ inches of standing water. The Cedar river in Renton has also overflowed it's banks in multiple areas through downtown river walk. Good times! All of this is making me wonder what the Ides of March have in store for us...

You mean over the walk/bike paths along the side of the river, not the actual embankments above those that would actually flood out into streets etc?

[TT-SEA]

Still dumping rain here.   

We must be over 2 inches on the day after the 6+ inches we got yesterday.    And guessing we are over 10 inches since Saturday evening.       

Looking forward to a few dry days ahead.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

26 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

Geez, next month is already April….

At least Easter is a lot later this year

[BLI snowman]

19 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I don’t remember anything noteworthy that happened that season, I will need to look at my picture archives! 

Frozen was released in November, then it got cold.

Seahawks won the Superbowl then it got cold again.

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

I've got a warm neutral feeling to next winter. Not much snow. We're due for a dud in my area.

Entire Olympia to Bellingham stretch is due for a dud. Pretty much every snow event in the last five years has been centered there.

[Timmy Supercell]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Frozen was released in November, then it got cold.

Seahawks won the Superbowl then it got cold again.

No December has come close to that level of cold since. Average low of 9 degrees for the month at KLMT.

Snowed one day on Dec 6th, quick 5". Then inversion the rest of that one.

[ShawniganLake]

Spring has sprung. 57F and mostly sunny here with intense clouds of wind blown pollen 

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

February was our best month.   I think the dreaded "blob" was allegedly a factor.  It was the only year since I have been here that we didn't have a white Christmas. 

That’s right, it came back to me as I looked at pictures. We had that nice little overrunning one day event before Christmas and Lake Goodwin froze over in early February. Those were the highlights up here. 

[Omegaraptor]

Soil moisture getting real low in northern CA again.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

That's pretty impressive. I lived over 4000 feet high for 11 years and March rarely had highs freezing or below. 

I still think thats short lived, in middle of winter here we don't get 2 week long freezes.

Maybe not 2 week long freezes, but this was a top-10 warm winter for the majority of the region. There wasn’t much in the way of serious cold to be found (for the 3rd consecutive winter).

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Soil moisture getting real low in northern CA again.

Not sure how that is calculated... but the ground literally cannot hold any more water for a large part of western WA.

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Maybe not 2 week long freezes, but this was a top-10 warm winter throughout the region. There wasn’t much in the way of serious cold to be found (for the 3rd consecutive winter).

I bet December alone is why many stations are top 10 or 5 warmest. January wasn't too bad in cold temperature department. There were a healthy number of days below 40. 

[Phishy Wx]

ill take a neutral year all day long.

 

this season just feels like a year we'll get some oddball last season Blizzard just because Why not?

[The Winter Warlock]

Officially half a foot of rain outside the Cov.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS seems to be leaning more towards zonal flow as well... 

 

[The Ms. Anthrop]

33 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

You mean over the walk/bike paths along the side of the river, not the actual embankments above those that would actually flood out into streets etc?

Not the embankments that are about 7 feet above the river, no, but for example where the senior center is, the river has completely covered the path that's 6 ft wide, and is encroaching on the grass lawn. Looks like it's running about 2 ft deep on the path. I'll try to get a picture tonight if I can.

There were also two minor mudslides on Rainier Ave; one in the city proper almost directly across from the airport control tower (City of Renton/KC roads have done nothing but put cones out) and one about a mile and half further north on Rainier that was blocking the southbound lane just before the Stone House restaurant. Drove past it maybe 5 minutes after it happened at 4:30 and SDOT was already taking care of it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mt Shasta yesterday. 

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mt Shasta yesterday. 

looks pretty bare, yikes.  A lot of that is just 'seasonal snow'. glaciers are going to gone from Shasta probably in the next 50 years, especially if the long term drying of Norcal continues

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mt Shasta yesterday. 

Picturesque.

[Deweydog]

[Skagit Weather]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mt Shasta yesterday. 

Looks like snow depth in that area is currently 30-40% of normal

[MossMan]

Patches of blue sky! 
.13” on the day so far. 54 degrees. 

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hard to pick out the 4CH in the sea of warmth looks like it’s maybe been displaced to the Nebraska/Iowa border. At least it shows the far NW closest to average 

Was thinking the same thing. It shows the marine layer intact along the coast of California, so that map might be overdone for the rest of the state. 

[AlTahoe]

47 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mt Shasta yesterday. 

Well thats what it should look like in June! Terrible. 

[TT-SEA]

Heavy rain again... 

[gusky]

 

[gusky]

GOES-T west launching less than a minute!!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, gusky said:

GOES-T west launching less than a minute!!

Going to be an improvement for us in terms of satellite images?

[AlTahoe]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Heavy rain again... 

Those are the type of rain rates that can kick off mud slides very easily. Hopefully your area can avoid them. 

[gusky]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Going to be an improvement for us in terms of satellite images?

Yep, new West sat, should be pretty epic

[gusky]

5 minutes ago, gusky said:

Yep, new West sat, should be pretty epic

GOES-17 had thermal issues that impacted infrared, this one fixes those issues and improves technologies in general it seems. Not sure if it's higher res...

[SnowWillarrive]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mt Shasta yesterday. 

I can see why Shasta has no glaciers scars like it’s Northern neighbors. 

Looks like July. California doomed. Terrible. 

[TT-SEA]

Rain has completely stopped now and there are some sun breaks.   Very spring-like out there with warm, moist air.    The grass looks like its turning green on steroids right now and the buds on the alder trees are much bigger and more prominent than they were last week.     This extreme AR event feels like it has jump started spring up here.   Of course it will probably snow again next week! 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Today:  2.80"
3-Day: 10.44"
Year:    31.19"

 

Thanks... was hoping for an update.  

Almost 3 inches on the day after the big rain event.    

And just about a foot of rain in 72 hours... without any major flooding.   Impressive!  

[TT-SEA]

Just incredible rain amounts across the entire Snoqualmie River basin over the last 3 days but the Snoqualmie River has crested below major flood stage.      It must be related to the long duration of the event.

[Cloud]

That was a pretty good 48 hour we just went through. Just wall to wall non-stop raining. 

Looking ahead, a coolish March could be in the making and maybe perhaps spring. Welcome back Nina. 

[T-Town]

2 hours ago, The Ms. Anthrop said:

Not the embankments that are about 7 feet above the river, no, but for example where the senior center is, the river has completely covered the path that's 6 ft wide, and is encroaching on the grass lawn. Looks like it's running about 2 ft deep on the path. I'll try to get a picture tonight if I can.

There were also two minor mudslides on Rainier Ave; one in the city proper almost directly across from the airport control tower (City of Renton/KC roads have done nothing but put cones out) and one about a mile and half further north on Rainier that was blocking the southbound lane just before the Stone House restaurant. Drove past it maybe 5 minutes after it happened at 4:30 and SDOT was already taking care of it. 

We lived in Renton during the 1990 storm that sank the I-90 bridge. The Cedar River pretty much filled that channel under and west of the library. I think they actually closed the library for a while. 

[Phishy Wx]

has there ever been a 3 year back to back to back nina?  Are we headed toward that super rare territory?

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows a transition to zonal flow at the end of the run... looks like a wet pattern.

The 18z GFS looks awfully dry after tomorrow. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The 18z GFS looks awfully dry after tomorrow. 

Well... last week you said we would learn how everything shifts north and the AR event would end up in BC.    

And yet we still managed to pick up almost a foot of rain in 3 days in my area and SEA had one of the wettest days ever recorded and almost 5 inches of rain since Saturday.     Trust the EPS over the 18Z GFS.  

[Cloud]

Pretty cool! 
 

 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

has there ever been a 3 year back to back to back nina?  Are we headed toward that super rare territory?

1998-2001 was the most recent time that happened.    Almost happened from 2010-2012.

Also happened from 1973-1976 and 1954-1956.

[seattleweatherguy]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

In other news, the new CANSIPS seasonal projects another brutal summer in the SW US.

Similar to 2021 with the expansive 4CH.

Phil that looks like the entire USA is torching. Should we expect another hot summer for WA and OR?