On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Go back to it. Beer is godawful for your health.

Coke and vodka, on the other hand, are both fantastic for health.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I feel like we’re dealing with a Stampede Pass Phil throwback tonight. Cooler times ahead???

Stampede Pass Phil was a drunk lying troll.

Present day Phil is just drunk. And sometimes a troll.

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I could bump many posts about a chilly second half of July if I were a less magnanimous guy.    

I conceited early on that this would likely be a serious payback summer... like 1999 or 2001 or worse.    That is what happens when a Nina is exploding in the warm season.   Right?    This summer has been pretty much the complete opposite at this point.  

You guys going to do a 7 minutes in heaven type thing at the forum meetup?!!!!!??!??? 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Tomorrow PDX will tie July 1941 and August 1981 for 6 consecutive days at/above 95 degrees. Then on Sunday they will have a chance to set a new all-time record at 7 days.

 

And in the obscure record section, tonight will in all likelihood be day six in a row of 65+ degree lows. Would tie the record set last August.

[Dave]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

You’re warmer than me!

72 and pea soup fog here. But temp is warming instead of cooling again.

72 and foggy? I might seek out a puppy.

[MossMan]

Phil is grumpy tonight! 

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

And amazingly, only 1 record breaker so far. That 2009 stretch was also a good one. Not even close to the record 103 today and don't think it'll touch the 96 tomorrow either. 

Anything below 94 from 7/15 - 8/15 is weak sauce.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I could bump many posts about a chilly second half of July if I were a less magnanimous guy.    

I conceited early on that this would likely be a serious payback summer... like 1999 or 2001 or worse.    That is what happens when a Nina is exploding in the warm season.   Right?    This summer has been pretty much the complete opposite at this point.  

The last 3 weeks have been.

Drop in the bucket on a seasonal timescale though.

[Timmy Supercell]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

You’re warmer than me!

72 and pea soup fog here. But temp is warming instead of cooling again.

The fog only seems possible at my place in the mid-upper 60's at the highest and only when the sun is going up. I think you've said a few times you can get 80 and fog? Nuts. 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Dave said:

72 and foggy? I might seek out a puppy.

 

[Cloud]

Was just looking at some July stats for SEA.. 19 out of the 31 days produced record highs since the 2000s. 15 of 19 happened within last 8-12 years. 

Oldest standing record is July 10, 1945 with a 90. I'd be shock if this date don't produce a new record w/in the next 3-5 years for this date.

Our climate is changing. 

[Timmy Supercell]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

And in the obscure record section, tonight will in all likelihood be day six in a row of 65+ degree lows. Would tie the record set last August.

NWS should do away with using terms like "old record" in these crazy times.

Take Portland's heatwave last year for example. 112 beating the "old" record set yesterday, 116 beating the "old" record set yesterday... 

Klamath Falls beating the old record of days in a row >100 (3 days) set June 2021... 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

The last 3 weeks have been.

Drop in the bucket on a seasonal timescale though.

Last part of June was also warm.  

[Phil]

Just now, Timmy Supercell said:

The fog only seems possible at my place in the mid-upper 60's and only when the sun is going up. I think you've said a few times you can get 80 and fog? Nuts. 

It was 81 and foggy at 1230pm today after a rain shower.

Doesn’t help that Potomac water temp hit 91°F last week and I live right next to it. Or that 11” of rain has fallen this month.

[TacomaWx]

77 here. Have had the box fans running for a few hours now and it’s been effective. 

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Last part of June was also warm.  

And the early part of July was cool.

In the grand scheme of things it hasn’t been warm for very long. Fits within the subseasonal band.

[Dave]

I decided to find that article about the Tonga eruption potentially causing a bit of global warming. 

https://www.science.org/content/article/massive-undersea-eruption-filled-atmosphere-water

[TacomaWx]

Todays our 4th consecutive +90…only other years to do that since I’ve been recording weather is July 2006 and July 2009. Never done 5 in a row but we could do 6 and just blow the record out of the water. Haven’t had more than 5 +90s in an entire summer either and we will be at 6 tomorrow. Get the feeling we will get 1 or 2 more in august to really solidify 2022 as the top dog for +90s. Why can’t we just keep the +90s to 0-2 per year like we did in 2019 and 2020

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Last part of June was also warm.  

OLM was below their long term average for June this year. Pretty cool month if you look outside the UHI comparisons.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Dave said:

I decided to find that article about the Tonga eruption potentially causing a bit of global warming. 

https://www.science.org/content/article/massive-undersea-eruption-filled-atmosphere-water

Key paragraphs here:

But the actual effects on climate will likely take time to understand, says Allegra LeGrande, a physical research scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies who was not involved with the work. “I don’t think there is a consensus about what the overall impact will be.”

High above Earth, the water will likely react with other chemicals, potentially degrading the ozone layer that protects us from ultraviolet light, and even changing the circulation of air currents that govern weather patterns.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

OLM was below their long term average for June this year. Pretty cool month if you look outside the UHI comparisons.

There was a heat wave in late June.

[RentonHill]

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

77 here. Have had the box fans running for a few hours now and it’s been effective. 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

OLM was below their long term average for June this year. Pretty cool month if you look outside the UHI comparisons.

Thank you. July isn’t over yet and we’re already making far reaching statements about the summer.

Let’s see where we’re at after another 3 weeks. Narrative might be quite different by then.

[TT-SEA]

But warming is a distinct possibility and I am not just making it up.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Yeah that ain’t happening.

[Deweydog]

Just now, Phil said:

Thank you. July isn’t over yet and we’re already making far reaching statements about the summer.

Let’s see where we’re at after another 3 weeks. Narrative might be quite different by then.

You two are gonna get jumped.

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

OLM was below their long term average for June this year. Pretty cool month if you look outside the UHI comparisons.

June was -0.1 here by 1991-2020 averages. I thought it was a very enjoyable month. Were +1.6 for July now and should finish +2-2.5

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Thank you. July isn’t over yet and we’re already making far reaching statements about the summer.

Let’s see where we’re at after another 3 weeks. Narrative might be quite different by then.

A top tier hot July was not even supposed to be remotely possible this year.   But it happened.   It's already far different than all of those cold analog years we were using.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But warming is a distinct possibility and I am not just making it up.

The radiative effects get messier above the tropopause, though. There’s no guarantee there will any statistically significant warming from this, depending on the nature of the photochemical reactions and impact on global circulation/heat transport.

I personally don’t think it’ll have any measurable effect on tropospheric temperatures. But the effects on global circulation could be quite significant.

[Deweydog]

HCS potential back on the table for tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

The radiative effects get messier above the tropopause, though. There’s no guarantee there will any statistically significant warming from this depending on the nature of the photochemical reactions and impact on global circulation/heat transport.

Of course... no guarantee.  

But it's not a far flung idea I just made up either.  

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah that ain’t happening.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

25 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

And in the obscure record section, tonight will in all likelihood be day six in a row of 65+ degree lows. Would tie the record set last August.

Nice stat.

Looking more into 1941, looks like it was going into a 3rd year El Nino. And 1981 was going into a 3rd year ENSO-Neutral. We're now headed into a 3rd year La Nina.

[TacomaWx]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

OLM was below their long term average for June this year. Pretty cool month if you look outside the UHI comparisons.

And yes…I remember last year some of us (myself included) were kinda making assumptions that 2021 would surpass 2015 here (it did for most places but not here). Best to wait and see. It seemed like a lock after the mid august heatwave but it cooled down in late august thankfully. You were right about that atleast here in Seattle. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A top tier hot July was not even supposed to be remotely possible this year.   But it happened.   It's already far different than all of those cold analog years we were using.

Huh

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Not a box fan!!

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Dude.. f this. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Of course... no guarantee.  

But it's not a far flung idea I just made up either.  

I didn’t say you made it up. IIRC I actually brought up the possibility before you did back in spring.

Going against the grain here, but if the mass circulation responds the way I think it might, then the result might very well be a high amplitude blocking pattern to open the winter, maybe even a constructively interfering -NAO and -PNA, analogous to the evolution in 2010/11.

[Meatyorologist]

45 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m drinking vodka & diet coke tonight. Beer is overrated.

Knew it!!