December Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

Tornado Warning just SW of Kankakee...

 

Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
ILC053-075-105-231715-
/O.NEW.KLOT.TO.W.0039.151223T1650Z-151223T1715Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1050 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN IROQUOIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
CENTRAL FORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CST

* AT 1050 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF CHATSWORTH...OR 9 MILES SOUTH
OF PIPER CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

[bainbridgekid]

HAHA!  I just heard that over here to!  #Depressing

 

Edit: It's pouring cats and dogs...more like Spring out there...who enjoys heavy rains in December?

The initial downpour at the front edge of this thing was brief but extremely intense. 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Nice! Thanks for the link. Euro Phase 8 showing more amplitude...leads to this in January...at least the first week...

 

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/JanENMJOphase8all2mT.gif

Yup. Arctic plunge. :-)

[Geos]

The initial downpour at the front edge of this thing was brief but extremely intense. 

 

WUNIDS_map (1).gif

 

That just went through here. Blinding rain, one crack of thunder.

[Tom]

12z GFS/GGEM starting to show signs of another Cutter towards NYE.  12z GFS very weak but has the right 500mb pattern which correlates with the LRC.  +PNA during this period should allow this storm to dig.  Neutral NAO also not a bad thing.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_174_500_vort_ht.gif

[Geos]

Just noticed on the GFS, a thin stripe of snow from Nebraska into Iowa early on Christmas.

 

 

Both NAM runs have it to. Looks like someone will pull off a white Christmas in the corn belt.

[CentralNebWeather]

Nam has been on this for a few days. Local mets saying 1 inch. Nam is saying more than that for some Nebraska locations

[NEJeremy]

man look at that bright banding on the Omaha radar. Snow has to be falling not too far off the ground even though it is still 39 here.

[Tom]

man look at that bright banding on the Omaha radar. Snow has to be falling not too far off the ground even though it is still 39 here.

Your right in the epic center of the defo band currently.  Only if it were snow it would be puking snow.

[NEJeremy]

Your right in the epic center of the defo band currently.  Only if it were snow it would be puking snow.

yeah this probably would have put down a good 6" for us.

[jcwxguy]

Snowing good at my apartment

[NEJeremy]

now snowing here in Omaha! coming down lightly though still mixing with rain

[Tom]

12z GEFS firing up the Alaska ridge Day 10-15 mean...classic hook over the top...arctic attack on the table opening days of January...nice 500mb pattern with the jet cutting underneath and targeting the southern 1/2 of Cali this time as a typical El Nino pattern evolves.

[ingyball]

I'm excited for this weekend, I'm getting Christmas Eve 2009 vibes from this system if digs like the GFS and CMC are showing

[Tom]

"Nanook from the North" showing up Day 9-10 in the Midwest/Plains NYE/New Year's Day...he has awoken from his sleep...this is going to be a smack in the face to a lot of ppl who ever gets the snow from this storm.  Sub-zero lows showing up and daytime highs in single digits.  Better get the wood chopped for the fire!  Haha!

[Tony]

What is the Euro showing for the New Years Eve potential?

[Geos]

California gets hit and we get a NW flow, interesting combo.

 

Snow moving into the NW side of Omaha metro right now. At least winter radar indicating that.

[CentralNebWeather]

I just got an alert that my area could receive several of inches of snow from late tonight through noon tomorrow. Nam was onto this. White Christmas?

[OKwx2k4]

"Nanook from the North" showing up Day 9-10 in the Midwest/Plains NYE/New Year's Day...he has awoken from his sleep...this is going to be a smack in the face to a lot of ppl who ever gets the snow from this storm. Sub-zero lows showing up and daytime highs in single digits. Better get the wood chopped for the fire! Haha!

Sign me up for some of that and roll a storm up under it. :-)

[Snowshoe]

Change to snow in SE MN. 1"-2" expected from Rochester on north. Advisories and warnings issued for NW WI for a windy 2"-5"

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Right over my house. This would be a wonderful Christmas Eve snow.

[jaster220]

Just noticed on the GFS, a thin stripe of snow from Nebraska into Iowa early on Christmas.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122312/gfs_asnow_ncus_9.png

 

Both NAM runs have it to. Looks like someone will pull off a white Christmas in the corn belt.

 

I just got an alert that my area could receive several of inches of snow from late tonight through noon tomorrow. Nam was onto this. White Christmas?

 

Guessing it's from this - hope you get it:

 

 

[westMJim]

Record now set for December 23^rd here at Grand Rapids.  With a high of at least 59° GRR has set a new record high for the day.  Old record was 57° set in 1941. 

[jcwxguy]

.97" liquid today

[james1976]

Interesting weather going on over here right now. Rain changed over to big wet snow flakes. Temp dropped 10 degrees in an hour. Very windy. And there was lightning and thunder right before the changeover!

[Jaycee]

Boy was I ever spoiled today. Absolutely beautiful out here in SE Minnesota. We were supposed to be a mix all day, but it switched over quickly in the morning. Literally have a perfect view from on top of a bluff, and huge flakes flying all day. Regardless of how this next storm plays out, I truly can't complain with what I've had here today!

 

Trying to upload a video, but it looks like I can't :/ I'll take a picture here soon!

[gosaints]

Tornado warnes cell as far north as clinton iowa. Impressive

[Geos]

I think the convection this morning was too much for the atmosphere to recovery any instability. No real strengthening of the small line moving northeast. Don't see any extension of the line to the south either.

Got one crack of thunder out of all this today, and 0.59" of rain. It was nice being outside without a coat today though.

[Niko]

Damp and very mild today with temps in the 60s. Incredible. I have a strong feeling that this winter is backloaded. JF and M will really nail a lot of us on this board.

 

Also, next week's storm system will make a lot of us on this board very happy (depending on where you live and what path the storm takes). The latest GFS shows that. Lets see how the next few play out on the models. Fun times ahead.

 

BTW...cold air is here to stay next week for my forecast. Cold all week. Hello Winter!!

[Geos]

Just had a shower and a burst of wind. Now the cold front is pushing through. Looks like that is it for this system.

[NEJeremy]

.64" of rain with a bit of snow at the end today.

[jcwxguy]

00z nam

[Maxim]

Damp and very mild today with temps in the 60s. Incredible. I have a strong feeling that this winter is backloaded. JF and M will really nail a lot of us on this board.

 

Also, next week's storm system will make a lot of us on this board very happy (depending on where you live and what path the storm takes). The latest GFS shows that. Lets see how the next few play out on the models. Fun times ahead.

 

BTW...cold air is here to stay next week for my forecast. Cold all week. Hello Winter!!

Any reason why you think that?

[Hawkeye]

I got a modest round of moderate rain this morning and a brief downpour this evening with lightning and some wind.  My rainfall total was 0.38".  The temp rose to 55 just ahead of the low.  I've enjoyed this month with the nice warmups and interesting/rainy systems.

[bainbridgekid]

Just had a couple very strong wind gusts here in Evanston, IL.

 

Heard it roaring and slamming into the side of the house.

 

It'll be interesting to see if there are any 50+ mph gusts.

[Tom]

A lot of places that saw a quick burst of snow today will see some more tomorrow...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122400/gfs_asnow_ncus_6.png

[ingyball]

The latest GFS has 2 inches of snow for me in Denton County Texas and 8 inches in the county west of mine in the city of Decatur. 

[Tom]

Cross polar flow develops on the 00z GFS Day 8-10...interesting run...a piece of the PV comes all the way down south just north of Lake Superior by Day 10.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122400/gfs_z500_vort_namer_39.png

[bainbridgekid]

O'Hare gusting to at least 44 mph this evening.

[Geos]

Top wind gust at Waukegan Harbor 59 mph.

 

Looking more likely a few will pull off a white Christmas.