stuffradio Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Last month of the year. Everyone party like it's 2015! My New Year's resolution is to have a climate that gets us snowy winters, variable Spring where rain systems don't drizzle for days on end, and warm hot Summers, then crisp Falls with some storms in it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Snow by the 3rd week of December lasting into Christmas...you heard it here first! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 I think lowland snow will be a threat somewhere between Dec 10 and New Years. Things look to be coming together for an interesting month. It's pretty hard to believe this month could average 4 degrees lower than last December and still not be below normal. At this point I'm in for this one to run a good 3 to 5 lower than last December. Better than that is certainly possible. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Snow by the 3rd week of December lasting into Christmas...you heard it here first!Well then! No need to look at the models !! 1 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Well then! No need to look at the models !!God knows he isn't! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Best chance for a white Xmas in years. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 The ECMWF looks good for days 9 and 10. Cool zonal flow giving way to a colder NW flow. We're in business guys! 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Best chance for a white Xmas in years. Ironically the chances look above average right now. A long way to go, but the pattern appears to evolve favorably over the next two weeks. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 One thing for sure...the GFS and ECMWF agree we are going to get blasted by a strong consolidated jet around day 8. This is what we want to see. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 One thing for sure...the GFS and ECMWF agree we are going to get blasted by a strong consolidated jet around day 8. This is what we want to see.One thing is even more sure. Your peaks get peakier and your valleys valleyier every year. Roll with it and go balls deep! Six foot drifts and windchill warnings! Let's do it!!! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Best chance for a white Xmas in years. I'm thinking Christmas could be a 2008/1980 hybrid. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 I'm thinking Christmas could be a 2008/1980 hybrid.Let's not get too carried away yet. Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 If you're one to believe that East Asia patterns are reflected in the US later down the road via the wave train, then it's worth mentioning that there's support for the colder anomalies in the west around day 9/10. 7-10 days out from now East Asia advertises a quick moving trough starting in the west which swings through the US, gaining amplitude as it progresses. This equates to a trough over the Central/Eastern US around the 13th of December +/- a few days. For anyone who cares, threw together a quick graphic representing what I mentioned above. The red text is the date in which it's projected to hit the US, and the overlay on each image demonstrates the correlation points to East Asia. Obviously nothing is perfect when it comes to meteorology, but figured I could throw something together to follow along with. Sorry if the image is huge, this forum doesn't seem to downsize images automatically http://i.imgur.com/bxODI60.jpg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Models are much drier for tomorrow now and much wetter for Thursday. No chance of a warm day on Thursday now. ECMWF led the way with that change. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Certainly some signs of arctic air making it into the lower 48 this month, based on some recent runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 12 is starting to look good for some mountain snow. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 12z gfs looks great beyond hour 200. deep trough after deep trough. and of course ends with lowland snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Nice day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Nice day.Its a nice any day we have our health. Ask me how i know. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Its a nice any day we have our health. Ask me how i know. That goes without saying. It is also a nice day weatherwise. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Pretty good consensus developing for a cool, troughy period starting around December 10. Both the GFS and Euro ensembles strongly hinting at this. If that pans out color me surprised. I was fully prepared for another +ENSO torchfest like December 2014. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Pretty good consensus developing for a cool, troughy period starting around December 10. Both the GFS and Euro ensembles strongly hinting at this..According to Phil that is impossible. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 That goes without saying. It is also a nice day weatherwise.Yes, i love to see the low humidity, it has so many positive effects. Amazing how fast the sun can dry everything out. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 I really feel that something will be coming for us in December this year... I think we will all be pleasantly surprised. OMG!! I just jinxed it!!!!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Does anyone have the website handy that shows the spaghetti-type graphs of the GFS ensembles? Check the ensemble mean section of each run... the left image is the mean and the right image shows the spaghetti chart. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Does anyone have the website handy that shows the spaghetti-type graphs of the GFS ensembles?Or did you mean this? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/tkavnmgnam.htm http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Models are much drier for tomorrow now and much wetter for Thursday. No chance of a warm day on Thursday now. ECMWF led the way with that change. So no mid 60s for PDX then? Shocking that didn't pan out. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 So no mid 60s for PDX then? Shocking that didn't pan out. Could have panned out if the ULL held offshore through the afternoon. The ECMWF showed strong southerly flow and good mixing with a warm air mass. But the ULL will not stay offshore through the day... so the warm spike probably comes at night and then it rains all day. It all comes down to timing like I said earlier. Even so... the WRF still shows temps getting up to around 60 south of PDX on Thursday. 12Z ECMWF shows the exact same thing. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/tsfc.57.0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 So no mid 60s for PDX then? Shocking that didn't pan out. Extreme trolling tends to backfire every now and then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 So no mid 60s for PDX then? Shocking that didn't pan out. It was definitely worth mentioning since the ECMWF and WRF both showed it happening at just 4 days out and would have been interesting. We are here to discuss weather. But the timing did not work out. Like so many over-hyped cold events by people whose entire existence seems to revolve around having negative departures in the record books! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 I was thinking of what Shawnigan posted but thanks for the extra link Tim. The more bookmarked websites the better. No problem. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Another sight for sore eyes is the recent return to robust positive OLR anomalies (5N - 5S) centered on 180. A very definite anti El Nino signal. Pretty interesting how it turned cold right after that change took effect. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/olra_c.gif Just curious, but if this was interpreted to show signs of anti-El Nino, then how did we end up with the greatest El Nino since 98'? I'm just trying to understand. Also, how could one assume a warm(er) December is in store after a rather lengthy cold snap in late November? From what I understand, its tied to MJO. Trying to educate myself here so I can move towards reading and interpreting models and information on my own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 12z Euro hour 216. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 It was definitely worth mentioning since the ECMWF and WRF both showed it happening at just 4 days out and would have been interesting. We are here to discuss weather. But the timing did not work out. Like so many over-hyped cold events by people whose entire existence seems to revolve around having negative departures in the record books! Is there any other kind? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 12Z ECMWF ar 240 hours... good for the mountains at least. http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120112!!chart.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Is there any other kind?Grave danger? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 12z Euro hour 216. get_orig_img.png 850mb temps almost get below freezing on this run. Winter gone wild. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 850mb temps almost get below freezing on this run. Winter gone wild. Pretty crazy! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Excellent trends on the Euro. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 850mb temps almost get below freezing on this run. Winter gone wild. We're dealing with the Polar Vortex from hell here. Baby steps. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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