December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[richard mann]

Is Richard Mann a robot?

 

 .. @

[richard mann]

No, his dialect can be difficult to interpret at times, though. 

 

"Arf".

[TT-SEA]

Is Richard Mann a robot?

 

 

Just reading through posts now and you actually made me laugh out loud.  

[Front Ranger]

Is Richard Mann a robot?

 

I believe he's a mann...ha ha. I will resist the urge to make a lame joke about his first name.

[Gradient Keeper]

LOL

 

Oh and icy here solid coating on vehicles, shrubs, some on trees and powerlines, but fortunately road surfaces just wet. A few small patches on my front porch and driveway.

 

00z GFS: Very wet, then the jet suppresses, snow levels lower.. then ridging near 140-150 W, cold trough, some potential for amplification and colder solution after day 10.... tiny little baby infant steps

 

[Model Countdown]

Next up...............

00z ECMWF in 20 minutes

[TT-SEA]

I've always maintained that he needs to start a chain of pizza joints. Tony Romo's. If that doesn't say pizza, I don't know what does.

 

 

Tony Roma's restaurants would probably sue.   Too close.  

 

http://tonyromas.com/

[Front Ranger]

Looks like all models are coming into agreement for much colder air to move into Alaska days 8-10, at least. Probably cool-ish, zonal flow for the PNW with some mountain snow.

[Front Ranger]

Tony Roma's restaurants would probably sue.   Too close.  

 

http://tonyromas.com/

 

That's a steak house, though. Plus, Tony Romo is his actual name and he's famous. I think he'd be free and clear. Unless Dewey was his attorney, then of course he'd be screwed.

[Gradient Keeper]

Looks like all models are coming into agreement for much colder air to move into Alaska days 8-10, at least. Probably cool-ish, zonal flow for the PNW with some mountain snow.

Yeah, we need Alaska to turn cold again as well as Yukon/NWT and northern BC/AB... it has been very "mild" in those areas, at least at 850mb...

[TT-SEA]

That's a steak house, though. Plus, Tony Romo is his actual name and he's famous. I think he'd be free and clear. Unless Dewey was his attorney, then of course he'd be screwed.

All I know is that I just got real hungry looking at their web site.

[Gradient Keeper]

Is Richard Mann a robot?

LOL

[Weather101]

That's a steak house, though. Plus, Tony Romo is his actual name and he's famous. I think he'd be free and clear. Unless Dewey was his attorney, then of course he'd be screwed.

I think it is too close tho, even if it's his name. When you apply for a business licence dont you have to give 3 names for that reason?

[snow_wizard]

I am really liking the model trends right now.  Very suppressed jet after the big fire hose next week.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, we need Alaska to turn cold again as well as Yukon/NWT and northern BC/AB... it has been very "mild" in those areas, at least at 850mb...

 

Yeah, I posted something earlier about how a warm December in AK during +ENSO is pretty much the kiss of death for PNW winters. A cold December doesn't guarantee good times ahead, but is historically correlated to much better odds at least.

[richard mann]

LOL

 

Just "stop". ... @

[snow_wizard]

The GFS ensemble continues to slowly trend better.  The 0z has a number of members that drop 850s to -7 or below for Seattle.  The models are unquestionably onto something here.  Let's hope the good runs continue.

[stuffradio]

00z eye candy alert. It's not quite as pretty as the 06z, but it's still colder than the cold snap we just went through.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, I posted something earlier about how a warm December in AK during +ENSO is pretty much the kiss of death for PNW winters. A cold December doesn't guarantee good times ahead, but is historically correlated to much better odds at least.

 

Yeah...if we get the big western trough eastern ridge regime being advertised we need some cold air to tap into.

[snow_wizard]

00z eye candy alert. It's not quite as pretty as the 06z, but it's still colder than the cold snap we just went through.

 

It's certainly on the right track.

[snow_wizard]

One thing is even more sure. Your peaks get peakier and your valleys valleyier every year. Roll with it and go balls deep! Six foot drifts and windchill warnings! Let's do it!!!

 

I'm actually on more of an even keel than I used to be.  I'm pretty excited to see a realistic shot at something after the ridiculous warmth we have recently experienced.

[jcmcgaffey]

Well that's a first

 

"A special 60-hour WRF-GFS run for the 36, 12, and 4-km domains was run today for the 2015120118 run to support the OLYMPEX field campaign."

 

No clue what the OLYMPEX field campaign is.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015120118/extendedgfsinit.html

[jcmcgaffey]

Well that's a first

 

"A special 60-hour WRF-GFS run for the 36, 12, and 4-km domains was run today for the 2015120118 run to support the OLYMPEX field campaign."

 

No clue what the OLYMPEX field campaign is.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015120118/extendedgfsinit.html

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/10/olympex-starts-next-month.html?m=1

[Perturbed Member]

The gorge is impressive as always. I'm kind of shocked at how close the entire PDX metro area came to a serious widespread ice storm tonight. The whole metro is sitting between 32-34F with moderate to heavy precip. I did encounter several areas with ice forming on cars and road signs but the roads were just wet. If this were late December or January that would have been enough of a difference for something quite a bit more severe. 

 

If the air aloft were even modestly cool, we could have had a pretty nice widespread snow storm . I can keep dreaming I guess. 

[snow_wizard]

 

 

Just curious, but if this was interpreted to show signs of anti-El Nino, then how did we end up with the greatest El Nino since 98'? I'm just trying to understand. Also, how could one assume a warm(er) December is in store after a rather lengthy cold snap in late November? From what I understand, its tied to MJO. 

 

Trying to educate myself here so I can move towards reading and interpreting models and information on my own. 

 

 

I was speaking of the atmosphere not the ENSO SST's.  The atmosphere was atypical of El Nino last month and the result was a reasonably cold month.

[Jesse]

The gorge is impressive as always. I'm kind of shocked at how close the entire PDX metro area came to a serious widespread ice storm tonight. The whole metro is sitting between 32-34F with moderate to heavy precip. I did encounter several areas with ice forming on cars and road signs but the roads were just wet. If this were late December or January that would have been enough of a difference for something quite a bit more severe. 

 

If the air aloft were even modestly cool, we could have had a pretty nice widespread snow storm . I can keep dreaming I guess. 

 

Yeah, PDX is down to 34 on the hour. I don't think anyone saw them getting that low this evening. 

 

Except for Dewey, of course.

[Gradient Keeper]

Perhaps not as exciting as the potential for cold, but we need to keep an eye on the low pressure system for Thursday, especially Portland to Salem. Both the 00z GEM/EURO have latched onto a solution bringing a nice compact 985mb low scooting north just off the Oregon Coast. Looks like a strong PDX-EUG gradient of 8-10mb may setup. We're within 48 hours of this possibility, so seeing both models nearly in-step with each other is something that can't be ignored. The GFS/WRF may catch onto this by 12z tomorrow. IF so, this would be a quick-hitting south wind event/storm.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah, PDX is down to 34 on the hour. I don't think anyone saw them getting that low this evening. 

 

Except for Dewey, of course.

The models once again underestimated the power of the Gorge, Columbia Basin cold pool, and wet bulb cooling. Everything is caked in ice here except for the road surfaces. I just heard a transformer explode 2 minutes ago also.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just did another ice check and I've got more than .10" accumulation now. I can clearly see that all the trees are heavily coated in ice and are now sagging. Powerlines are coated with icicles hanging off of them. With east winds gusting over 30mph I'm starting to get a little concerned about tree damage and maybe we see more power outages east of I-205. Hopefully not.

[HighlandExperience]

Snow level pretty low tonight. Snowing pretty hard in the cascades. Snowing at skykomish at around 900 feet.

[TT-SEA]

Deep trough... and just no real cold air anywhere.     Skiing should be good.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120200!!chart.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 10 is looking interesting!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015120200/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

[TT-SEA]

00z ECMWF Day 10 is looking interesting!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015120200/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

Not if you look at the map above and see the 850mb temps. Great 500mb pattern being wasted with no cold air available.

[High Desert Mat]

Euro starting at day 8 looks interesting then day 9-10 look excellent. Lots of time for things to improve or worsen but the general idea is there. Om still intrigued by the CFS latching on at mid month for more cold and lasting awhile. Hmmmm,,,, thoughts on the CFS guys?

[Gradient Keeper]

Not if you look at the map above and see the 850mb temps. Great 500mb pattern being wasted with no cold air available.

I did see that. Patience

[Gradient Keeper]

[Model Countdown]
Next up.................
6z NAM running now
6z GFS in 1 hour 39 minutes

 

I added the NAM as we can look at the Thursday system with it. It's within that 84hr range, well within in fact.

[Phil]

Not if you look at the map above and see the 850mb temps. Great 500mb pattern being wasted with no cold air available.

There'd be plenty of cold available if that gargantuan PV wasn't snorting it all.

[crf450ish]

Things are all haywire in Spokane. Surface themps have been well below freezing for over a week now and it snowed last night and every flake stuck like glue to whatever it landed on. 

 

28 degrees & 1" of new snow at my house this morning. Just flurries now. Local news lady (Krem2 Katie Boer, whoo she's hot!) is putting allot of emphasis on the next system headed our way. That system is expected to produce rain for Spokane, which probably means rain/mix for me here @ 2,375 elevation....

[TT-SEA]

Things are all haywire in Spokane. Surface themps have been well below freezing for over a week now and it snowed last night and every flake stuck like glue to whatever it landed on. 

 

28 degrees & 1" of new snow at my house this morning. Just flurries now. Local news lady (Krem2 Katie Boer, whoo she's hot!) is putting allot of emphasis on the next system headed our way. That system is expected to produce rain for Spokane, which probably means rain/mix for me here @ 2,375 elevation....

 

 

I don't think its really haywire... this is pretty normal out there for the winter season.

[crf450ish]

I don't think its really haywire... this is pretty normal out there for the winter season.

I should've mentioned haywire in reference to traffic and drivers. The road surfaces are a skating rink. 

[westcoastexpat]

Not if you look at the map above and see the 850mb temps. Great 500mb pattern being wasted with no cold air available.

 

Glad someone brought this up. Fairly typical of El Nino around its peak... Arctic air bottled up, regardless of 500 mb pattern.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being a near nation-wide green Christmas. The Arctic Oscillation Index is likely going to stay positive for the rest of the month, meaning the arctic air is not going to come down.

 

I think the only hope for most of the country is modified air getting trapped. A thread-the-needle type event. Basically, Christmas luck, because it's not going to be easy.

 

I'm a little disappointed, to be honest. I miss white Christmases. However, let's just hope that February delivers (as it can during El Nino). Also, let's see if a strong La Nina follows... but this is not a sure thing--look at 82-83.