December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF seems to be locked onto the idea of a gigantic and very deep trough over the western half of the country later next week.  That deep trough dredges up some ridiculously warm air and forces it over the eastern third of the country.  Pretty interesting pattern over all.

 

 

And pretty much wasted in this period where all the cold air is locked up.    I am guessing the pattern will flip when true cold air becomes available and the Midwest and NE will be pummeled with snow and cold later in January and February.

[snow_wizard]

I now have a complete solar system i assembled. Total cost was 1700. I have 2500 watts of clean energy. Pretty cool to have a remote location and walk in and turn on the tv and lights and know its all from the sun.Last weekend it got down to 4 degrees.

 

At first I thought you were talking about a huge model of the celestial solar system.  Then I quickly realized...

 

Sounds really cool!  Is the cabin in a valley or on flat terrain?  That is the coldest reading I've heard of in WA.  Normally it takes being in a mountain valley to pull off those kind of numbers with that weather pattern.

[snow_wizard]

And pretty much wasted in this period where all the cold air is locked up.    I am guessing the pattern will flip when true cold air becomes available and the Midwest and NE will be pummeled with snow and cold later in January and February.

 

It will be interesting to see how that aspect pays out.  At face value the ECMWF is decently cold at day 10, but it would be nice to have some really cold air to work with.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

At first I thought you were talking about a huge model of the celestial solar system.  Then I quickly realized...

 

Sounds really cool!  Is the cabin in a valley or on flat terrain?  That is the coldest reading I've heard of in WA.  Normally it takes being in a mountain valley to pull off those kind of numbers with that weather pattern.

I am 3600 ft. there were a few areas that went below zero. look at the observation map that you click on a square.ferry county line went sub zero i think.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Here are a couple pics jim, winter pic was last year. thats off my deck.

[TT-SEA]

It will be interesting to see how that aspect pays out.  At face value the ECMWF is decently cold at day 10, but it would be nice to have some really cold air to work with.

 

 

It won't be as cold as shown either.     Should be some decent weather though... not nearly as wet as the next week.

[HighlandExperience]

[MossMan]

It won't be as cold as shown either. Should be some decent weather though... not nearly as wet as the next week.

How do you know that it won't be as cold as shown?

[luvssnow_spokane]

How do you know that it won't be as cold as shown?

He really has no clue but is taking a guess on how it normally plays out. Again, we can lean more toward climo as a safe bet but anything could happen.

[Phil]

While the AO is important for NH mid-latitude cold in general, the EPO is more important for getting Arctic air into the lower 48. And right now all models keep the EPO quite positive through the next 10 days, though it may fall after that.

 

The AO is actually forecast by some models to drop near neutral or even go a little negative in the long range, but of course that's of little value at this point.

 

 

Of course, the behavior of both indices is heavily modulated by the PV. In other words, the two share a common domainal forcing.

[snow_wizard]

How do you know that it won't be as cold as shown?

 

He's probably going by what happened with the last trough.  There's no way to know that will happen again.  We've had quite a few events in recent years that have actually trended colder in the home stretch...

[snow_wizard]

He really has no clue but is taking a guess on how it normally plays out. Again, we can lean more toward climo as a safe bet but anything could happen.

 

Not so much since they upgraded the GFS a couple of years ago and then again last year.

[Phil]

I am guessing the pattern will flip when true cold air becomes available and the Midwest and NE will be pummeled with snow and cold later in January and February.

It won't be a smooth flip, though. Watch for an Arctic blast around or just after New Years. In terms of pattern progression, this is looking similar to what went down in 2006-07.

 

I'm also starting to like the idea of a full-blown SSW event in mid or late January, timed similarly to the 2006-07 event. I'm not sure it'll be quite as prolific, but it'll be interesting to watch unfold either way.

 

The transition should begin with a round of anticyclonic NPAC wave breakers between January 1-10 as E IO forcing tries to re-establish. This will temporarily drop the EPO and initiate/aid in the destabilization of the PV, but this pattern will break before the SSW/-NAM flip takes over in late January and dominates the pattern in February.

[Phil]

Could be that the cooling of the equatorial stratosphere following the SSW will allow for a coherent MJO response (2012-13), which may signal the demise of the Niño (full O/A decoupling?).

 

We all remember how that gargantuan MJO wave (set off by SSW side-effects) in January of 2013 marked the beginning of a multiyear shift in the Pacific circulation(s). We may very well be in for a similar reshuffling this winter, only in the opposite direction.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Absolutely torching up here right now. Up to 55 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

Absolutely torching up here right now. Up to 55 degrees.

Close to 60!

[Phil]

[Jesse]

Absolutely torching up here right now. Up to 55 degrees.

37 with a strong east wind still in the Cascade Park area of Vancouver!

 

I'm sure that warmer air will be mixing down by morning.

[Front Ranger]

938 mb low in the GOA at hour 135.

[ShawniganLake]

Nobody following the potential wind event less than 24 hours out? 984mb low tracking from the SW with landfall near Hoquiam.  Gusts shown to 60kt for the East sound up to 70kt down the Strait.

 

  http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_wgsfc.27.0000.gif

[Deweydog]

WRF suddenly likes the stronger route with tomorrow's low.

[TT-SEA]

12Z run for tomorrow afternoon...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015120212/images_d2/slp.36.0000.gif

 

00Z run for tomorrow afternoon...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.24.0000.gif

[Jesse]

WRT suddenly likes the stronger route with tomorrow's low.

Should we be scared?

[Deweydog]

Should we be scared?

Of turds? No. Everybody poops.

[bainbridgekid]

12Z run for tomorrow afternoon...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015120212/images_d2/slp.36.0000.gif

 

00Z run for tomorrow afternoon...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.24.0000.gif

 

Incredible difference.

 

I can't remember the last time it flipped that much (especially both stronger and further South) within 36 hours.

 

That would be a pretty serious windstorm.

[Front Ranger]

Wow. Pretty crazy shift for one day out.

[Jesse]

Of turds? No. Everybody poops.

You read the book too.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wind storm.

[bainbridgekid]

Canadian is also stronger and would be a pretty big storm for Portland and SW Washington.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015120300/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_4.png

[Deweydog]

Canadian is also stronger and would be a pretty big storm for Portland and SW Washington.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015120300/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_4.png

The splitty nature of it mitigates some of the potential.

[TT-SEA]

Not sure what to make of it... the operational GFS does not show it and the 12Z ECMWF did not show it.  

[TT-SEA]

Canadian is also stronger and would be a pretty big storm for Portland and SW Washington.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015120300/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_4.png

 

 

Looks like its in a broad lower pressure field... probably not a huge wind event.   Maybe more significant for NW OR.

[Deweydog]

Not sure what to make of it... the operational GFS does not show it and the 12Z ECMWF did not show it.

GOLU.

[Front Ranger]

Not sure what to make of it... the operational GFS does not show it and the 12Z ECMWF did not show it.  

 

Models are only human.

[bainbridgekid]

The splitty nature of it mitigates some of the potential.

True but it's significantly stronger and more compact than the 12z.

 

The weirdest thing is that the operational is way less impressive with a broader wave around 992mb while the WRF goes full compact bomb at 983mb.

 

No idea what to think even though it's less than 24 hours out.

[bainbridgekid]

FWIF the 00z also has a big windstorm at day 7.

 

 

Active pattern.

[Bryant]

It won't be a smooth flip, though. Watch for an Arctic blast around or just after New Years. In terms of pattern progression, this is looking similar to what went down in 2006-07.

 

I'm also starting to like the idea of a full-blown SSW event in mid or late January, timed similarly to the 2006-07 event. I'm not sure it'll be quite as prolific, but it'll be interesting to watch unfold either way.

 

The transition should begin with a round of anticyclonic NPAC wave breakers between January 1-10 as E IO forcing tries to re-establish. This will temporarily drop the EPO and initiate/aid in the destabilization of the PV, but this pattern will break before the SSW/-NAM flip takes over in late January and dominates the pattern in February.

 

Given what you said, we should also watch this time frame for a cold period in our neck of the woods if the NPAC high pressure sets up in the right spot

[Phil]

Given what you said, we should also watch this time frame for a cold period in our neck of the woods if the NPAC high pressure sets up in the right spot

I agree. Could be much more than a "cool period", too.

[ShawniganLake]

I agree. Could be much more than a "cool period", too.

So, you are thinking an extended window of opportunity between New Years and Mid January, possibly a couple of chances in that period?

[bainbridgekid]

Not sure what to make of it... the operational GFS does not show it and the 12Z ECMWF did not show it.  

While not as strong as the WRF, the 12z Euro still showed a sub 988mb low to the NW tip of Washington with pretty strong winds up the Sound.

 

Actually stronger than the Operational GFS.