December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

Not sure...it was a little less, I believe. Everyone got plenty of snow on 1/6/04, but places further south got more on 1/1/04 and I think with the Arctic front. I don't remember how King County did with the late December event.

 

In south Tacoma, we got:

 

Dec 28: 1-2"

Jan 1: 3"

Jan 3? (day with the Arctic front): 2"

Jan 6: 6-7"

 

That was a pattern that actually favored places further south. The NW interior and SW BC didn't really do great with that either. Maybe 9-10" total in Bellingham? I had over 17" down here with that stretch, plus the 1.5" of freezing rain.

[bainbridgekid]

Snoqualmie's been getting plastered all day.

 

 

Sad to think this will all melt Tuesday.

[Deweydog]

Snoqualmie's been getting plastered all day.

 

12341082_10153741464033349_2688882291306024836_n.jpg

 

Sad to think this will all melt Tuesday.

Looks messy. Thank god it'll be cleaned up soon.

[Deweydog]

Aren't you the one always lecturing people to lower their climate standards?

No.

[ShawniganLake]

That was a pattern that actually favored places further south. The NW interior and SW BC didn't really do great with that either. Maybe 9-10" total in Bellingham? I had over 17" down here with that stretch, plus the 1.5" of freezing rain.

18" here during that stretch. Max depth of 13".

[pscz1140]

I lived in Seattle on Phinney Ridge and got ~8" with the overrunning event on 1/6/04.

 

Almost positive we didn't have any snow on the ground going into that though because I remember watching the snow pile up from like 1/4" when I woke up to really deep by early afternoon.

 

My dad actually left for work on his bike that morning not trusting the forecast. Let's just say he ended up turning around. 

 

I'll never forget that storm. I was 12 and it was one of the only big snowstorms I got to experience in Seattle. Played in the snow that whole day and into the night. It turned to freezing rain late in the evening which made for some dangerously fast sledding.

 

I was more than 12, lol.

 

I had recently moved to Seattle and it was my first or second day teaching as a grad student at UW. I think I was around 20 minutes late for class since the buses were all messed up. I'm pretty sure I ended up walking most of the way back up to Capitol Hill in the snow, though I've had about 10,000 beers since then so my memory is a bit fuzzy. Great day, though.

[Deweydog]

I lived in Seattle on Phinney Ridge and got ~8" with the overrunning event on 1/6/04.

 

Almost positive we didn't have any snow on the ground going into that though because I remember watching the snow pile up from like 1/4" when I woke up to really deep by early afternoon.

 

My dad actually left for work on his bike that morning not trusting the forecast. Let's just say he ended up turning around.

 

I'll never forget that storm. I was 12 and it was one of the only big snowstorms I got to experience in Seattle. Played in the snow that whole day and into the night. It turned to freezing rain late in the evening which made for some dangerously fast sledding.

Your dangerously fast sledding comment reminded me of January 1998. We went to McLoughlin Heights in Vancouver on Monday evening of that event. Eight or so inches of snow with an ice cap. Holy ... How any of us survived or at least didn't and up with pins in our spine is beyond me. My now brother in law clotheslined himself on the back of a pick-up and did probably did have at least a concussion. Good times... and it was in January during a nino!

[TT-SEA]

00Z Canadian looks interesting next Sunday.

[Deweydog]

00Z Canadian looks interesting next Sunday.

Storm King redux!

[bainbridgekid]

00Z Canadian looks interesting next Sunday.

Also drops Thursday's storm to 959mb, though further NW as well.

 

If that could bomb out a couple hundred miles further East we'd be talking about a pretty serious windstorm. At this point models seem pretty convinced it will mature too early to really smack us.

[TT-SEA]

Also drops Thursday's storm to 959mb, though further NW as well.

 

If that could bomb out a couple hundred miles further East we'd be talking about a pretty serious windstorm. At this point that's not looking likely though.

 

 

This is interesting... but would not be a windstorm for the Seattle area.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.111.0000.gif

 

But Canadian is WAY different.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/P6_GZ_D5_PN_114_0000.gif

[bainbridgekid]

This is interesting... but would not be a windstorm for the Seattle area.

 

 

 

But Canadian is WAY different.

 

 

True but even on the WRF it's filling in rather than bombing out when it makes landfall.

 

That'd still bring some strong winds to the Wilamette Valley though for sure.

[Deweydog]

New 00z run of the WRF-GFS shows a big windstorm for the Willamette Valley this Thursday morning. Sustained surface winds of at least 30 to 35 knots. This equates to around 35 to 40 mph. Now imagine what the wind gust would be.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015120600/images_d2/xwssfc.111.0000.gif.pagespeed.ic.nsf8u8oOyd.pnghttp://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015120600/images_d2/xwssfc.114.0000.gif.pagespeed.ic.xZ0OYCuzw7.png

116 mph on the Morrison Bridge.

[Jesse]

Your dangerously fast speeding comment reminded me of January 1998. We went to McLoughlin Heights in Vancouver on Monday evening of that event. Eight or so inches of snow with an ice cap. Holy s**t... How any of us survived or at least didn't and up with pins in our spine is beyond me. My now brother in law clotheslined himself on the back of a pick-up and did probably did have at least a concussion. Good times... and it was in January during a nino!

Good story. Although I notice a lot of your most glowing weather memories seem to involve people getting injured.

[snow_wizard]

Very nice 0z run tonight.  It puts a recurring surface high over the GOA fairly close to the BC Coast.  That equates to anomalous cold any time of the year.  Good snow threat around day 11 or so.  Looks like an interesting period coming up.

[Deweydog]

Good story. Although I notice a lot of your most glowing weather memories seem to involve people getting injured.

The world is a dangerous place be it warm, cold or in 60's.

[Jesse]

Very nice 0z run tonight. It puts a recurring surface high over the GOA fairly close to the BC Coast. That equates to anomalous cold any time of the year. Good snow threat around day 11 or so. Looks like an interesting period coming up.

Things have certainly taken on a much more "normal" feel the last couple months (with the exception of October's ridiculousness). Nice to have it back.

[Front Ranger]

The world is a dangerous place be it warm, cold or in 60's.

 

Exactly. If you're gonna die, might as well be doing what you love...sledding down a hill at 90 mph.

[snow_wizard]

Not sure...it was a little less, I believe. Everyone got plenty of snow on 1/6/04, but places further south got more on 1/1/04 and I think with the Arctic front. I don't remember how King County did with the late December event.

 

In south Tacoma, we got:

 

Dec 28: 1-2"

Jan 1: 3"

Jan 3? (day with the Arctic front): 2"

Jan 6: 6-7"

 

The Jan 1 snowfall was one of the most satisfying snowfalls since I've lived here.  It was one time where places south of Seattle owned areas to the north.  While it was snowing here it rained to the north.

 

I'll never forget how that unfolded.  A cold / dry east wind blew during the morning which filled south King and Pierce Counties with reasonably cold air.  Later in the day some overrunning moisture arrived and since the cold air was in place it snowed.  There was a northerly component to the surface pressure gradient so the chilly / dry air was not able to move north of Seattle.

[Deweydog]

Exactly. If you're gonna die, might as well be doing what you love...sledding down a hill at 90 mph.

 

I ditched on the first run as fight or flight instinct kicked in. I was ridiculously black and blue the next day. Made the thaw that much more painful.

[Jesse]

Wow, I just realized Salem hit 57 today and Eugene hit 59.

 

Warm air close by, but a high of only 47 at PDX so far today. Warmth should overspread the entire region starting tomorrow and lasting through Tuesday.

[snow_wizard]

I can't wait to see some negative double digits here. Hopefully I see some serious cold here soon. Never been in negatives in WA.....

 

According to the Western USA weather site Wellpinit has dropped to -29 before and that's pretty close to you.  Pretty good chance you will see below zero readings sometime this winter.

[Gradient Keeper]

New 00z run of the WRF-GFS shows a big windstorm for the Willamette Valley this Thursday morning. Sustained surface winds of at least 30 to 35 knots. This equates to around 35 to 40 mph. Now imagine what the wind gust would be.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015120600/images_d2/xwssfc.111.0000.gif.pagespeed.ic.nsf8u8oOyd.pnghttp://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015120600/images_d2/xwssfc.114.0000.gif.pagespeed.ic.xZ0OYCuzw7.png

PDX-EUG 13 to 15mb. Extreme gradient, but it may not be an extreme wind storm due to how baggy the center becomes and it weakens just before landfall. If future runs show a more compact center on this track that doesn't weaken as it hits the Washington Coast, then we can be very concerned. This would still give us high winds 55-60+mph my estimation, but a 13 to 15mb gradient could realistically give you well over 80mph. Something to keep an eye on

[snow_wizard]

Wow, I just realized Salem hit 57 today and Eugene hit 59.

 

Warm air close by, but a high of only 47 at PDX so far today. Warmth should overspread the entire region starting tomorrow and lasting through Tuesday.

 

It's pretty amazing how diverse the temps can be in this situation.  It's 45 here while only 15 or so miles away in the swamp of Puyallup it's a balmy 54.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Jan 1 snowfall was one of the most satisfying snowfalls since I've lived here.  It was one time where places south of Seattle owned areas to the north.  While it was snowing here it rained to the north.

 

I'll never forget how that unfolded.  A cold / dry east wind blew during the morning which filled south King and Pierce Counties with reasonably cold air.  Later in the day some overrunning moisture arrived and since the cold air was in place it snowed.  There was a northerly component to the surface pressure gradient so the chilly / dry air was not able to move north of Seattle.

 

The January 1st storm was great here too. The first snow event to cover the entire Willamette Valley since who knows when. I think it was the first time since 1995 that the entire Willamette Valley was blanketed with the same storm. 

[Jesse]

It's pretty amazing how diverse the temps can be in this situation. It's 45 here while only 15 or so miles away in the swamp of Puyallup it's a balmy 54.

Yeah, it is certainly an aspect of this setup that I find interesting.

 

The eastern slopes of the Cascades have been getting pretty hammered with snow too. Any place where the easterly flow can seep through basically.

[snow_wizard]

Our family is going over to Leavenworth on Sunday, the 13th, for the Christmas Lighting Festival. I was worried the snow they have accumlated so far will get wiped out on Tuesday, but it looks like they will get smacked Thursday-Sunday. WRF shows a total of 27 inches come Sunday morning. Hopefully WSDOT keeps Stevens Pass nice and clear.

 

That area is at the top of my list for places to move.  Hopefully everything will eventually align so I can do it.

[TT-SEA]

PDX-EUG 13 to 15mb. Extreme gradient, but it may not be an extreme wind storm due to how baggy the center becomes and it weakens just before landfall. If future runs show a more compact center on this track that doesn't weaken as it hits the Washington Coast, then we can be very concerned. This would still give us high winds 55-60+mph my estimation, but a 13 to 15mb gradient could realistically give you well over 80mph. Something to keep an eye on

 

00Z ECMWF does not have any storm or wind on Thursday.    Just cool, onshore flow.

[Gradient Keeper]

00Z ECMWF does not have any storm or wind on Thursday.    Just cool, onshore flow.

Yeah, there is definitely a lot of model disagreement beyond even Sunday. Very dynamic, volatile pattern, so we could easily spin up a deep low for a wind event/storm or 2.

[Jesse]

Here's hoping for zero windstorms and lots of cool weather and mountain snow instead.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, there is definitely a lot of model disagreement beyond even Sunday. Very dynamic, volatile pattern, so we could easily spin up a deep low for a wind event/storm or 2.

 

00Z ECMWF calms everything down after Tuesday.     

[Gradient Keeper]

Here's hoping for zero windstorms and lots of cool weather and mountain snow instead.

What about the windstorm followed by arctic air scenario that we've seen many times in December. Not a fan? I'd be fine though if the jet remained suppressed with weaker systems, less of a warm push.

[WS Snow]

00z GFS shows snow at HR 252 with temps mainly in the upper 20s/lower 30s. Still too far out to really matter but at least it has moved up from HR 348 on 00z run from last night. Again, potential. Just needs to hang on tight as we get into the mid/short range

I pose the question, what would you rather:

 

Guaranteed Hawks victory in Minnesota tomorrow morning or a 4-5 inch snow event in SEA/PDX in mid-December that lasts at least 72 hours.

[Gradient Keeper]

00Z ECMWF calms everything down after Tuesday.     

The only model that does. The GEM/GFS doesn't until next weekend. Who will win....

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 EURO shows modest potential

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015120600/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015120600/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

[Jesse]

What about the windstorm followed by arctic air scenario that we've seen many times in December. Not a fan? I'd be fine though if the jet remained suppressed with weaker systems, less of a warm push.

The second part. That's what I like.

 

I don't know of any correlation between south windstorms and arctic events. Gorge winds are always more fun anyway. Raging East to Northeast winds while an arctic airmass pushes in is the kind of wind storm I can get behind!

 

I know it's only an opinion but I usually find south windstorms rather boring and annoying mild.

[Gradient Keeper]

The second part. That's what I like.

 

I don't know of any correlation between south windstorms and arctic events. Gorge winds are always more fun anyway. Raging East to Northeast winds while an arctic airmass pushes in is the kind of wind storm I can get behind!

 

I know it's only an opinion but I usually find south windstorms rather boring and annoying mild.

There is a definite correlation on several occasions, but not all. Even with strong AR Events we've seen cold air follow. Well, true there's something special about a real arctic blast, cold air rapidly thickening piling up sloshing over the Washington Cascades, rapid pressure rises over the Columbia Basin, temperatures/dewpoints plunging from Omak to Moses Lake, then Pasco to The Dalles, and seeing the PDX-DLS, PDX-GEG, PDX-YKM gradient increase by 2mb/hr. I can only dream we'll see that this Winter.

[Deweydog]

I really wish people would be more deliberate and repetitive with outlining their weather preferences. Preferences are the true heart and soul of weather. Nothing like being out in the elements and truly experiencing nature's preferences.

[Deweydog]

There is a definite correlation on several occasions, but not all. Even with strong AR Events we've seen cold air follow. Well, true there's something special about a real arctic blast, cold air rapidly thickening piling up sloshing over the Washington Cascades, rapid pressure rises over the Columbia Basin, temperatures/dewpoints plunging from Omak to Moses Lake, then Pasco to The Dalles, and seeing the PDX-DLS, PDX-GEG, PDX-YKM gradient increase by 2mb/hr. I can only dream we'll see that this Winter.

25 years ago in two weeks!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yeah, there is definitely a lot of model disagreement beyond even Sunday. Very dynamic, volatile pattern, so we could easily spin up a deep low for a wind event/storm or 2.

Seems like a lot of dangling carrots and ultimately a lot of dynamically traditional disappointment. BUT ... We shall see.