December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Why do you continue to talk about the GFS in week two like it matters at all?    At least cross-reference with the ECMWF or you are just wasting space like the football talk you don't care for on here.

 

Here is the ECMWF for the middle of 'week two' and I don't see a 'ton of cold air' in Alaska.    Do you really think the 18Z GFS in week two is worth even mentioning?   Let alone talking about what it shows like its actually going to happen.   

 

 

We'll see.  The GFS has outperformed the ECMWF on occasion as of late.  The chance for something good is there.

[MossMan]

Christmas lights are up, and gutters are clean...it can snow now!

[Timmy]

Looks like a ton of cold air builds over Alaska and the Yukon during week 2. Going to be fun to see how this all unfolds.

 

The 18z shows a lot of lows tracking favorably for lowland snow.

It would be nice to at least get somewhat low snow levels around Christmas.

[Deweydog]

First championship in Portland since '77.  

 

Analog???

[Timmy]

First championship in Portland since '77.

 

Analog???

Shh... Sounders everywhere

[stuffradio]

Shh... Sounders everywhere

Whitecaps are the best anyways. Best fans in the league. :)

[crf450ish]

Well I am driving down to Denver after New Years for work, just got word of that .  I wonder what kind of awesomeness I'm going to run into on the way there and back! HAHA! I have nice traction tires on my truck, no chains though. Guess I'll have to invest in  those(never needed them before whilst residing in western wa lol  ). I also just might make the trek to Phoenix to say hi to my grandfolks and visit a friend. Man I really hope I get into some serious cold temps and snow....If I do I will be sure to take lots of pics and report back here! 

[Gradient Keeper]

This isn't your every day average Weather Forum. The Weather Discussion is deep, rich, at times very technical, full of historical information, and sometimes it takes a backseat to fun banter, annoying sarcasm, a bit of snideness, with a truck load of snarky, or the strange infatuations, but and I hate to admit this, that's what this Forum is. If you took that away quite frankly this place wouldn't be the same. Now, I don't necessarily partake in any of that, but the usual bunch here does. I can easily ignore it and take it for what it is. As far as the Sports talk goes, I am a huge Sports fan and the Sports talk doesn't bother me in the slightest. Sports is a part of our culture as much as Weather is. Now, if we were expecting or in the middle of a major event, well okay maybe then I'd like to see more Weather related discussion, and I have a feeling our minds wouldn't be on sports if we knew a major arctic front was dancing south through BC towards us. It just doesn't bother me. I can easily ignore it and scroll down to the next comment. Back to Weather!

 

[Model Countdown]

Next up..................

00z NAM 1 hour 48 minutes

Later this evening........

00z GFS 3 hours 30 minutes

00z GEM 4 hours

Tonight.....................

00z ECMWF 5 hours 50 minutes

[crf450ish]

This isn't your every day average Weather Forum. The Weather Discussion is deep, rich, at times very technical, full of historical information, and sometimes it takes a backseat to fun banter, annoying sarcasm, a bit of snideness, with a truck load of snarky, or the strange infatuations, but and I hate to admit this, that's what this Forum is. If you took that away quite frankly this place wouldn't be the same. Now, I don't necessarily partake in any of that, but the usual bunch here does. I can easily ignore it and take it for what it is. As far as the Sports talk goes, I am a huge Sports fan and the Sports talk doesn't bother me in the slightest. Sports is a part of our culture as much as Weather is. Now, if we were expecting or in the middle of a major event, well okay maybe then I'd like to see more Weather related discussion, and I have a feeling our minds wouldn't be on sports if we knew a major arctic front was dancing south through BC towards us. It just doesn't bother me. I can easily ignore it and scroll down to the next comment. Back to Weather!

 

[Model Countdown]

Next up..................

00z NAM 1 hour 48 minutes

Later this evening........

00z GFS 3 hours 30 minutes

00z GEM 4 hours

Tonight.....................

00z ECMWF 5 hours 50 minutes

I like how the majority of your posts include a model countdown....thats pretty great. Now gimme some links to those models cause I'm only a regular joe with no higher education in atmospheric sciences..... the links provided in this link aren't really worth relying on IMO...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/topic/31390-forum-wx-link-page/

[GHweatherChris]

Looks like a ton of cold air builds over Alaska and the Yukon during week 2.  Going to be fun to see how this all unfolds.

 

The 18z shows a lot of lows tracking favorably for lowland snow.

I really think the 18z is programmed for us weenies to have hope just so the 00z can come and crush it in a few hours.

[GHweatherChris]

Just in case some of you didn't know, the Seahawks won today, they are now 7-5 and could very well be on their way to  the 5th seed and a playoff match up with a sub .500 NFC East team for their first playoff game.  They looked really good today and IMO Luke Wilson>Jimmie Graham.

[Jbolin]

I really think the 18z is programmed for us weenies to have hope just so the 00z can come and crush it in a few hours.

The 18Z has always been worth it's weight in s****

[Gradient Keeper]

I like how the majority of your posts include a model countdown....thats pretty great. Now gimme some links to those models cause I'm only a regular joe with no higher education in atmospheric sciences..... the links provided in this link aren't really worth relying on IMO...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/topic/31390-forum-wx-link-page/

I'm the inventor and creator of the model countdown. It is supposed to inspire the weather gods to treat us kindly, but it doesn't always work.

 

Sure, here are just a few links....

• GFS/NAM/CMC/ECMWF with both the Northwest View and North Pacific View.

I also use this look at the Ensembles 500mb heights and anomalies.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015120618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=320

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015120618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=514

• NCEP Model GFS

North American View

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=model

North Pacific View

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&area=NPAC&ps=model

• GFS Ensembles 850mb temps - Seattle

(Click 'Refresh' around :58 after the hour) For 6z 3:58 AM,12z 9:58 AM, 18z 3:58 PM, 00z 9:58 PM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

• Numerical Model

Sometimes I use this usually just to look at the CMC

http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na&run=00&lang=en

• GFS Extracted Data

Since you live in northeast Washington here is the extracted data from the GFS for Spokane. Refresh this around 10:10 AM for 12z runs, 4:10 AM for 6z, 4:10 PM for 18z, 10:10 PM 00z

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kgeg

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kgeg

• Upper Air 500mb analogs

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php

• ECMWF 500mb chart

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/mean-sea-level-pressure-wind-speed-850-hpa-and-geopotential-500-hpa?area=North%20America&step=0&relative_archive_date=2014062700&parameter=Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa&time=2015120612,0,2015120612

• IR/WV Loops

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/

• UW Products

MM5-NAM http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/naminit.html

WRF-GFS http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/gfsinit.html

[TT-SEA]

Seahawks destroy the Vikings and Tom Brady loses again.   Good day.

[snow_wizard]

Well I am driving down to Denver after New Years for work, just got word of that .  I wonder what kind of awesomeness I'm going to run into on the way there and back! HAHA! I have nice traction tires on my truck, no chains though. Guess I'll have to invest in  those(never needed them before whilst residing in western wa lol  ). I also just might make the trek to Phoenix to say hi to my grandfolks and visit a friend. Man I really hope I get into some serious cold temps and snow....If I do I will be sure to take lots of pics and report back here! 

 

 

That will probably be the time we will get smacked up here.  No matter what I'm sure your trip will be interesting / perilous.

[snow_wizard]

This isn't your every day average Weather Forum. The Weather Discussion is deep, rich, at times very technical, full of historical information, and sometimes it takes a backseat to fun banter, annoying sarcasm, a bit of snideness, with a truck load of snarky, or the strange infatuations, but and I hate to admit this, that's what this Forum is. If you took that away quite frankly this place wouldn't be the same. Now, I don't necessarily partake in any of that, but the usual bunch here does. I can easily ignore it and take it for what it is. As far as the Sports talk goes, I am a huge Sports fan and the Sports talk doesn't bother me in the slightest. Sports is a part of our culture as much as Weather is. Now, if we were expecting or in the middle of a major event, well okay maybe then I'd like to see more Weather related discussion, and I have a feeling our minds wouldn't be on sports if we knew a major arctic front was dancing south through BC towards us. It just doesn't bother me. I can easily ignore it and scroll down to the next comment. Back to Weather!

 

[Model Countdown]

Next up..................

00z NAM 1 hour 48 minutes

Later this evening........

00z GFS 3 hours 30 minutes

00z GEM 4 hours

Tonight.....................

00z ECMWF 5 hours 50 minutes

 

I very much agree with what you said here.  Sometimes when everything aligns just right our discussions do get quite enjoyable, technical, and informative.

 

I think some of my favorite topics are about awesome past events.

[snow_wizard]

I really think the 18z is programmed for us weenies to have hope just so the 00z can come and crush it in a few hours.

 

Perhaps, but the chances are still good of something worthwhile during the second half of the month or early Jan.

[Bryant]

Chill. I am a Dallas Cowboys fan and do you see me getting annoyed? It's once a week for 2 hours like cmon...Just dont come on here during game time then, problem solved. I will be posting as much Monday night football talk as i can tmrw Maybe find something that makes you entertained?

Or how about you post in a sports related thread and leave this as a weather thread like it's intended to be? We aren't in the "December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest" weather thread to banter about sports. Quite obnoxious. Other posts will be sure to get deleted though!

[Deweydog]

Seems to me there's just as many whiny, non-weather related posts as there are cheery non-weather related posts today. Either way, time well spent!

[GHweatherChris]

What is the big deal about posting something about a regional sports team, I mean really!!!  Is it really that hard to scroll past it?  Is everyones mice broken?

 

I would rather have more sports posts then seeing some on here constantly trying to destroy someones enthusiasm which is an everyday occurrence. 

[TT-SEA]

Its raining again.   That is exciting!

 

Nicely timed dry break between fronts from 10am-4pm here.

 

Allowed for some post-Seahawks game outdoor activities.

[Bryant]

Dude, this post makes you look like a whiny lil' b****

 

Why get so butt hurt over a few or occasional off topic posts?

 

There are other weather forums/platforms for you to be active at, this isn't the end all/be all of weather forums.

 

Perhaps you might seek those "other" options out or if not then just realize this forum is a 'monster' by it's own design and no matter how off topic the discussion I challenge you to find another weather forum with so many engaging yet brilliant minds when it comes to atmospherics/climatology?

This is the kind of quality I look forward to!

[GHweatherChris]

Its raining again.   That is exciting!

 

Nicely timed dry break between fronts from 10am-4pm here.

 

Allowed for some post-Seahawks game outdoor activities.

Ah, you let the kids go wet grass sledding, thats so cool.

[Gradient Keeper]

What is the big deal about posting something about a regional sports team, I mean really!!!  Is it really that hard to scroll past it?  Is everyones mice broken?

 

I would rather have more sports posts then seeing some on here constantly trying to destroy someones enthusiasm which is an everyday occurrence. 

I agree completely. It's incredibly easy scroling past information that I'm not interested in or care about. I can't believe the Timbers won the MLS. They were decently good at best all regular season, and then wow they turned it on during the playoffs! Blazers are about what we expected. Medicore. Seahawks are back. They appear to be firing on all cylinders now. What about Golden State. Amazing. Stephen Curry is doing things we've never seen before. Score check Warriors 96 Brooklyn 85 4th quarter. Also, I hate it when anyone tries to take away someones enthusiasm whether it's about snow, cold, wind, whatever.

 

[Model Countdown]

Next up...............

00z NAM in 45 minutes!

[Phil]

I'm a sports fan myself, but I agree there should be a general banter/disco thread for it.

 

It's the organizational aspect it, for me. I also think the quality of the sports disco itself would be improved in a thread more suited for it. Just my opinion..

[Black Hole]

Really fun pattern coming up for you guys. I guess if you like lots of rain and wind. I would love to see some stuff like that here in Utah but it never happens. 

[GHweatherChris]

When I get back to my office, I'll clean up some of these posts. Moving forward, please drop the back and forth about sports and off topic discussion. What is being brought up isn't doing much to drive the conversation forward and only seems to act as a way to piss a couple people off.

 

In the next day or two I'll split the thread into a banter discussion where you can discuss regional sports, news, and weenie out about forecasts. It'll be seasonal and won't have to change much.

 

A second thread will be the monthly obs and forecast thread. There will be stricter moderation, limiting the cruft of needless back and forth and non weather talk. If this works out, we'll roll with it. If it doesn't, then I hope we can avoid and agitation with those who don't like seeing off topic posts on the forum they frequent.

 

On a side note, you guys drive the conversation. If someone posts about top ramen recipes in the obs thread, the odds are high someone will share theirs, and soon there is a conversation about it. If you show up to see a recipe discussion, but wanted to read about the weather, you'll probably get a constructive response from the community if you just steer the conversation back to weather.

Personally it would just be easier if some just quit being butt hurt over things that honestly do not affect their day to day life.

 

I will be the first to admit I don't contribute much if any constructive posts unless it is snowing, but if I can scroll past BS I don't want to read then it shouldn't be difficult for others to do, its a god D**n internet forum not a professional site influencing entire regions.

[snow_wizard]

Really fun pattern coming up for you guys. I guess if you like lots of rain and wind. I would love to see some stuff like that here in Utah but it never happens. 

 

I sure wish we could trade some of our interesting weather for some of yours.  It would be a much better mix for all.  To me something like 1990 was pretty awesome.  Lots of stormy and wet weather followed by epic cold and decent snowfall for many.  That is another interesting aspect about 1949-50.  Before all of the cold and snow there was quite a stormy pattern and highly variable temps in the weeks before it.

[Gradient Keeper]

This post was incredibly helpful, thanks.

 

I knew about Tropical Tidbits and e-Wall, but didn't know how to find any of the other stuff that's posted on here all the time.

 

It might be nice if there were a "sticky" with links to model sites.  Or maybe there already is, and I just haven't run across it.

You're welcome. Yeah that's a good idea to have a post strictly for weather links.

[Snowman5678]

Really fun pattern coming up for you guys. I guess if you like lots of rain and wind. I would love to see some stuff like that here in Utah but it never happens. 

I actually already miss the rain and the wind! I never thought I would say I'd miss rain. Hopefully the second half of next week can provide for us after all of these splitting storms!

[Snowman5678]

One way or another snowfall is looking pretty good for the mountains.

12z ECMWF

12z GFS

[luvssnow_spokane]

I really think the 18z is programmed for us weenies to have hope just so the 00z can come and crush it in a few hours.

Lol!! So true! Honestly, I think that is what the Euro is for. or maybe the Euro just helps to keep it real from the fantasy world that the GFS shows.

[DareDuck]

I'm a sports fan myself, but I agree there should be a general banter/disco thread for it.

 

It's the organizational aspect it, for me. I also think the quality of the sports disco itself would be improved in a thread more suited for it. Just my opinion..

 

I agree. I don't think there should be a ban on sports talk considering I like to talk about sports too. There should just be an off topic thread, I've seen it work well on other forums. During slow weather periods the off topic thread is more active than the weather thread, but at least the limited weather discussion is easily visible and not scattered among random posts. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Or how about you post in a sports related thread and leave this as a weather thread like it's intended to be? We aren't in the "December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest" weather thread to banter about sports. Quite obnoxious. Other posts will be sure to get deleted though!

Dear Lord...

[Gradient Keeper]

[Model Countdown]

Next up................

00z GFS in 30 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

00z NAM/MM5

Well, this is a bit interesting....
4:00 AM Thursday. A compact, powerful deep low of 968-969mb well offshore west of Astoria. It may be deepening a bit further too. It appears to be tracking east-northeast towards Forks/southern Vancouver Island. It's hard to say as the run only goes out to HR 84. Still impressive to see. We'll have to see if the WRF shows anything similar.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015120700.naminit/images_d2/slp.84.0000.gif

 

An absolutely huge swath of Hurricane Force winds with this low.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015120700.naminit/images_d2/wgsfc.84.0000.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

Here's what the Portland AFD has to say about the situation:

 

SYSTEMS ARE MOVING FAST AND FURIOUS ACROSS THE PACIFIC...BEING

CARRIED ALONG BY A GOES-ESTIMATED 185 KT JET WHICH TRAVERSES NEARLY

THE WHOLE BASIN BACK TO THE PHILIPPINES. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE PLENTY OF

BAROCLINICITY AVAILABLE TO THEM...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE POWERFUL

JET IS CREATING A POWDER KEG OF POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS THE NEXT

FEW DAYS OFFSHORE. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL ALSO MAKE FORECASTING

ANYTHING BEYOND 24-36 HOURS VERY CHALLENGING WHILE THIS PATTERN IS IN

PLACE...AS SMALL ERRORS IN INITIALIZATION CAN LEAD TO VERY LARGE

ERRORS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

Yep. For a major wind storm I'd like the parent low set up near 50 N, 130-135 W, trough axis digging down 130-135 W, strong baroclinic boundary and jet a bit further south.

[TT-SEA]

Here's what the Portland AFD has to say about the situation:

 

SYSTEMS ARE MOVING FAST AND FURIOUS ACROSS THE PACIFIC...BEING

CARRIED ALONG BY A GOES-ESTIMATED 185 KT JET WHICH TRAVERSES NEARLY

THE WHOLE BASIN BACK TO THE PHILIPPINES. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE PLENTY OF

BAROCLINICITY AVAILABLE TO THEM...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE POWERFUL

JET IS CREATING A POWDER KEG OF POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS THE NEXT

FEW DAYS OFFSHORE. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL ALSO MAKE FORECASTING

ANYTHING BEYOND 24-36 HOURS VERY CHALLENGING WHILE THIS PATTERN IS IN

PLACE...AS SMALL ERRORS IN INITIALIZATION CAN LEAD TO VERY LARGE

ERRORS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

 

 

Powder keg... sounds downright explosive!

[Brennan]

When I get back to my office, I'll clean up some of these posts. Moving forward, please drop the back and forth about sports and off topic discussion. What is being brought up isn't doing much to drive the conversation forward and only seems to act as a way to piss a couple people off.

 

In the next day or two I'll split the thread into a banter discussion where you can discuss regional sports, news, and weenie out about forecasts. It'll be seasonal and won't have to change much.

 

A second thread will be the monthly obs and forecast thread. There will be stricter moderation, limiting the cruft of needless back and forth and non weather talk. If this works out, we'll roll with it. If it doesn't, then I hope we can avoid and agitation with those who don't like seeing off topic posts on the forum they frequent.

 

On a side note, you guys drive the conversation. If someone posts about top ramen recipes in the obs thread, the odds are high someone will share theirs, and soon there is a conversation about it. If you show up to see a recipe discussion, but wanted to read about the weather, you'll probably get a constructive response from the community if you just steer the conversation back to weather.

I've been a member on the forums with a lot of these guys that post most often for about 10 years. There have been off topic threads, but they've never accumulated any traffic. People LIKE to have what they post SEEN by other members, and they might as well not even post what they have to say in an off topic thread... It won't be read. I've been more of an observer over the past couple of years as opposed to an avid poster, which I was in previous years... There have been times in the past couple of years where I couldn't stand to read the PNW thread because there was so much garbage bickering back and forth page after page after page. The forum now overall is extremely clean in comparison. The seldom sports talk should not be an issue. It's not like it's attracting a whole bunch of new posters and taking up multiple pages. In fact almost everything sports related on here today was posted by some of our leading posters.

 

Who remembers when.... if you forget an apostrophe where one belongs... There were 3 pages of arguments and lashings resulting from it???? Or wait was I suppose to write out three.... Sorry for all the question marks, it's 2015! lol. Did lol exist before facebook?

 

On a more weathery note. I'm work here on Iowa Street in Bellingham and the doors are getting blown off the hinges. Literally just had our front door break. Gusting to at least 60 right now. LOVE IT!

[Brennan]

Powder keg... sounds downright explosive!

Speaking of words that are kind of like KEG... Does anyone have any experience with KANGEN water?