December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

I have seen blowing snow many if not during all the Arctic Blasts I have been a part of, fun stuff!!

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, this GFS run isn't making a move towards the Euro.  <_>

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, this GFS run isn't making a move towards the Euro.  <_>

 

That being said, there are some massive differences between every GFS run lately. No consistency. The Euro is the one model showing consistency right now...would like to think that means something.

[MossMan]

Yeah, this GFS run isn't making a move towards the Euro. <_>

Is it worse or about the same as the 18z?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Through hour 144 I am nonplussed. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Bad news. HR 150 low develops too quickly and too far east. This ridge is barely building at all.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121800/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_26.png

[Deweydog]

36 degrees and moderate rain pretty much all day here. (Though we did have some wet snow mixed in at my work earlier today) November 1985 got me hooked on the weather. I was 9. Oh what a great Arctic Blast!

Same here. The December 1983 event probably primed me, but November 1985 put things way over the top.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Bad news. HR 150 low develops too quickly and too far east. This ridge is barely building at all.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121800/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_26.png

 

More rain?

[Front Ranger]

Is it worse or about the same as the 18z?

 

Worse. Closer to the 12z.

[Deweydog]

Bad news. HR 150 low develops too quickly and too far east. This ridge is barely building at all.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121800/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_26.png

Flo from Progressive called and said she wants her 500mb pattern back.

[Gradient Keeper]

Weird, no PV on this run in the arctic regions.... Outlier!

[Phil]

Most of the time I see blowing snow it is 31 degrees with 30mph SW winds and the concrete sticks to everything it hits. lol

Blowing snow is the best. I'll never forget the V-Day squall last winter...4" in 25 minutes w/ 60mph winds.

 

[snow_wizard]

That being said, there are some massive differences between every GFS run lately. No consistency. The Euro is the one model showing consistency right now...would like to think that means something.

 

Yeah...besides that the ECMWF ensemble has been strongly supporting the operational model.

[Front Ranger]

Weird, no PV on this run in the arctic regions.... Outlier!

 

Yeah, like I said, some pretty massive differences run to run with the GFS with some features. But semi-consistent with others.

[Deweydog]

0z is a little interesting with the surface low on 12-24. Doesn't have a whole lot going for it, but ya know...

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah, like I said, some pretty massive differences run to run with the GFS with some features. But semi-consistent with others.

Yeah, definitely. EURO has been most consistent run to run. I am anxious to see 00z EURO now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm concerned about where the Canadian goes. 

[MossMan]

Same here. The December 1983 event probably primed me, but November 1985 put things way over the top.

Oh yes Dec 1983! I remember riding with my dad in his GMC 4x4 truck during that snow and he ended up pulling two cars out of the ditch, I thought that was the coolest thing ever. I can still remember ELO was playing on the 8-Track!

[GHweatherChris]

If the EURO blinks the wrong way, then no model is superior right now, or ever.

[Deweydog]

I'm concerned about where the Canadian goes.

To a hockey game... or a Gordon Lightfoot concert... or Alan Thicke's house.

[seattleweatherguy]

I'm holding off making any opinions until we are within 36 hours. And even then things change. Pray for a white christmas

[Gradient Keeper]

Even with this crummy run we still establish northerly flow as the ridges tilts into BC. 1044mb high dropping into Idaho. COLD offshore flow and persistent cold pool likely. Super progressive run

[Front Ranger]

To a hockey game... or a Gordon Lightfoot concert... or Alan Thicke's house.

 

Most likely Tim Hortons.

[Dave]

 

(we lived on a sloping hill)

Fortunate break that you had a sloping hill.  Those are much better for sledding than a typical flat hill.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

To a hockey game... or a Gordon Lightfoot concert... or Alan Thicke's house.

 

Last I heard Alan Thicke on the radio he was encouraging me to get a reverse mortgage... 

[Deweydog]

Oh yes Dec 1983! I remember riding with my dad in his GMC 4x4 truck during that snow and he ended up pulling two cars out of the ditch, I thought that was the coolest thing ever. I can still remember ELO was playing on the 8-Track!

In '83 as well as January '82 I remember riding down the big hill at Fort Columbia in a laundry basket.

[Deweydog]

Last I heard Alan Thicke on the radio he was encouraging me to get a reverse mortgage...

He wants you to fight the IRS!

[Front Ranger]

I'm holding off making any opinions until we are within 36 hours. And even then things change. Pray for a white christmas

 

You're way ahead of the Seattle NWS.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS and 12z ECMWF are so different over the northern GOA around day 8 it's almost comical.  Obviously I hope the ECMWF wins out, but at least the 0z GFS gets pretty cold, but dry.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

He wants you to fight the IRS!

 

The way my life has gone at this point I feel like in about 20 years I'll owe the IRS about 250K and those ads will feel a lot more relevant. 

[Front Ranger]

 

(we lived on a sloping hill)

Fortunate break that you had a sloping hill.  hose are much better for sledding than a typical flat hill.

 

 

Right. Well, what I meant was that it wasn't super steep. The snow got packed down pretty good, so we didn't need much of an incline to really get going.

[snow_wizard]

In '83 as well as January '82 I remember riding down the big hill at Fort Columbia in a laundry basket.

 

I can't even figure out if this is true or not...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fake cold?

[Deweydog]

I can't even figure out if this is true or not...

It was what it was. That hill is brutal.

[TT-SEA]

The way my life has gone at this point I feel like in about 20 years I'll owe the IRS about 250K and those ads will feel a lot more relevant. 

 

 

What happened to your life?

[Front Ranger]

What happened to your life?

 

He's obviously in the mob.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Dont pay irs

[TT-SEA]

00Z Canadian for Christmas Eve:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_168_0000.gif

 

 

And Christmas Day:

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_192_0000.gif

[crf450ish]

Where are you 450? You doin like you've never seen snow before lol. I love the enthusiasm!!!

Oh I'm here. Just hanging out watching tv and looking outside trying to decide what I want to do tomorrow. Other then ride the quad with the kids, I might go for a short snow hike with my dog, just him and I. There are miles and miles of service/reservation roads out here that I can get lost on, on foot. Ive always wanted to hike through an eastern WA pine forest....ever since I was a kid. You can see everything, even if it gets thick for a moment, it always thins out and you can see. It makes it more fun to hunt, and to hike because the wildlife is more easily identifiable and seen. 

[crf450ish]

 

(we lived on a sloping hill)

Fortunate break that you had a sloping hill.  Those are much better for sledding than a typical flat hill.

 

Awww yes......off camber snow sledding!