WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 How much of a base is leftover from the snow and sleet storm? We do have a few inches of a base, so at least we have snowcover. That being said, some people love snowcover, and some are more about the big storms. I am the latter. If I was a snowcover lover, this definitely wouldn't be a bad month at all, but alas that is not everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 Question for Tom: what happened to this active pattern that was supposed to develop through the middle of the country? Besides the 6" storm I had back on December 28th, meteorological winter has featured at most 2" type events. I was saying and thinking a year or two back that you'd be talking up any pattern as an active/snowy one, and it seems I was right. If you don't like that I just use my backyard, ask just about anyone on this forum, and they will say it has not been a good pattern for snow, and only recently a decent one for cold.Since when does nature spread the wealth on every storm??? Folks in the Plains/Midwest will get a couple chances of more snow and I said it would be south of I-80 due (except near NE/IA) to the suppression of the cold. Look, even I am a bit surprised that the last storm didn't materialize along with other met's that developed the LRC Theory. It happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 Since when does nature spread the wealth on every storm??? Folks in the Plains/Midwest will get a couple chances of more snow and I said it would be south of I-80 due (except near NE/IA) to the suppression of the cold. Look, even I am a bit surprised that the last storm didn't materialize along with other met's that developed the LRC Theory. It happens. To be fair, it hasn't been 'spread the wealth' on any storm yet this year. It's been thread the needle basically with every decent storm for someone on this forum. A big part of the reason the LRC is unreliable are the different teleconnection states, which I think mets like Lezak should explain a bit more. The current +PNA is a large part of why it hasn't been very active in January (even in terms of overall precip). That looks to continue for the foreseeable future, and is a big reason why strong Ninos rarely yield in the Great Lakes (outside the lake belts) and Upper Midwest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 To be fair, it hasn't been 'spread the wealth' on any storm yet this year. It's been thread the needle basically with every decent storm for someone on this forum. A big part of the reason the LRC is unreliable are the different teleconnection states, which I think mets like Lezak should explain a bit more. The current +PNA is a large part of why it hasn't been very active in January (even in terms of overall precip). That looks to continue for the foreseeable future, and is a big reason why strong Ninos rarely yield in the Great Lakes (outside the lake belts) and Upper Midwest.Part of the problem I've been hearing is the jet is so strong this season and storm systems "whisp" on by without having a chance to phase...even when there is a -AO/-NAO! That's pretty rare to see. Something I haven't yet seen in my years. Who knows, maybe the jet relax's a bit later in Feb/Mar and there will be some bigger storms to track. IMO, an active pattern is set when you start seeing any kind of system whether it be a Clipper or a weak wave or wound up storm that hits every 2-3 days. We've had a Clipper hit around here last week, missed the Fri/Sat storm...now parts of NE/IA are going to get some weak frontal snows this Sat/Sun, then another open wave on Tue/Wed. I'm sure the met's out there are saying this is an active pattern...but of course, in our back yard its not going to be. Then prospects for next Thu/Fri are still on the table....so you see, there is an active pattern but not the BIG storms I'm sure your hoping for. The pattern continues into the following week as well as storms continue to hit the west coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 I'm seeing the Euro backing off the "warmer" idea near the Lakes later next week/weekend with a +PNA pattern. GFS also seems to be trending that way also. I think the Plains will feel the "warming" much more than around here later next weekend due to down sloping winds off the Rockies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 Part of the problem I've been hearing is the jet is so strong this season and storm systems "whisp" on by without having a chance to phase...even when there is a -AO/-NAO! That's pretty rare to see. Something I haven't yet seen in my years. Who knows, maybe the jet relax's a bit later in Feb/Mar and there will be some bigger storms to track. IMO, an active pattern is set when you start seeing any kind of system whether it be a Clipper or a weak wave or wound up storm that hits every 2-3 days. We've had a Clipper hit around here last week, missed the Fri/Sat storm...now parts of NE/IA are going to get some weak frontal snows this Sat/Sun, then another open wave on Tue/Wed. I'm sure the met's out there are saying this is an active pattern...but of course, in our back yard its not going to be. Then prospects for next Thu/Fri are still on the table....so you see, there is an active pattern but not the BIG storms I'm sure your hoping for. The pattern continues into the following week as well as storms continue to hit the west coast. It probably would only need one big storm to be called an active pattern with the smaller ones that are common, but having small systems every 2-3 days that do not cover a lot of real estate percentage wise for each should not be considered an active pattern. These smaller systems are not even producing much rain this month in the areas that are warm enough to see rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 It probably would only need one big storm to be called an active pattern with the smaller ones that are common, but having small systems every 2-3 days that do not cover a lot of real estate percentage wise for each should not be considered an active pattern. These smaller systems are not even producing much rain this month in the areas that are warm enough to see rain.Hello nino. West coast gets blasted.. the pacific is ruling Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 Gfs trying to put together a decent system late week next week. Euro is about 800 miles south though. So not much confidence Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 Anyone want to go to Missouri next week? GFS just hammers Missouri with 3 separate snow events, each one progressively stronger. Weak clipper tonight, moderate snow Tuesday/Wednesday. Heavy snow at the end of the week. http://i.imgur.com/WPJUDfA.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 lol long-range gfs is a torchUnreliable model, right??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 Anyone want to go to Missouri next week? GFS just hammers Missouri with 3 separate snow events, each one progressively stronger. Weak clipper tonight, moderate snow Tuesday/Wednesday. Heavy snow at the end of the week. http://i.imgur.com/WPJUDfA.pngIf that should come into fruition, these parts would end up being above normal in the snowfall dept in about a week's time. How quickly things can change. 12z EPS is also targeting this region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 Still on the far western fringes of all of those systems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 Now just push that roughly 200 miles north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 Both GEFS/EPS have storm after storm crossing the U.S. over the next 2 weeks every 2-3 days. Now, if that isn't an active pattern I don't know what else to say. FYI, after a two day "brief" blip in the pattern Day 7-9...12z EPS suggest a return to below normal temps. NW NAMER ridge tries to fire up again while the Aleutian Low intensifies quite a bit. JMA Weeklies were seeing the same result Week 1-2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 Now that we know any storm no matter the intesity signifies an active pattern its pretty easy to say a pattern is.active. Especially when flow is a thousand miles an hour. I suppose one if the so called storms will turn into some thing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 Now that we know any storm no matter the intesity signifies an active pattern its pretty easy to say a pattern is.active. Especially when flow is a thousand miles an hour. I suppose one if the so called storms will turn into some thing...It's pretty easy to say that since no body on here, especially you and a few others, were indicating a cold/dry pattern. I never believed in that, esp from I-80 and points south. A storm, whether weak or strong, is a storm system...where it can produce flakes that will fly from the sky IMO. I think many on here will agree with me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 16, 2016 Report Share Posted January 16, 2016 It's pretty easy to say that since no body on here, especially you and a few others, were indicating a cold/dry pattern. I never believed in that, esp from I-80 and points south. A storm, whether weak or strong, is a storm system...where it can produce flakes that will fly from the sky IMO. I think many on here will agree with me.Oh and did you correctly predict what caused this cold dry pattern? I am sure you had to the cause of the AO dip nailed. If you say cold long enough in january and december at some point you will hit Whats amazing is that amount of blocking.couldnt stop the nino induced flow. And who predicted nino would hold Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 I don't really consider a parade of weak storms with small scale impacts as being in an active pattern. Sure mets may consider it an active pattern since their job is to forecast the weather. But for me, an active pattern is when we are tracking storms that have potential wide scale impacts. just my 2 cents Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yes it's been active. Issue is most haven't had much at all to show for it. That's the frustrating part. I am getting tired of these 1-3 inch nuisance snows. Give me a big snowstorm or warmth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 How about 1/2 inch nuisance snows. Had that last night around midnight and it had melted by 11 am in January with mostly cloudy skies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Unreliable model, right???Indeed, it's a bad model. Spits out random blotches of colder surface temps/850 mb temps that wouldn't make any sense given the overall set-up that it's depicting. The ensembles are much better IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Anyone want to go to Missouri next week? GFS just hammers Missouri with 3 separate snow events, each one progressively stronger. Weak clipper tonight, moderate snow Tuesday/Wednesday. Heavy snow at the end of the week. http://i.imgur.com/WPJUDfA.png That snow hole over Wisconsin is so laughably sad, might as well jump to spring if that's the current trend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 I thought that only happened over central Nebraska. Sad winter so far for many of us on the forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 GFS a disaster over the next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Part of the problem I've been hearing is the jet is so strong this season and storm systems "whisp" on by without having a chance to phase...even when there is a -AO/-NAO! That's pretty rare to see. Something I haven't yet seen in my years. Who knows, maybe the jet relax's a bit later in Feb/Mar and there will be some bigger storms to track. IMO, an active pattern is set when you start seeing any kind of system whether it be a Clipper or a weak wave or wound up storm that hits every 2-3 days. We've had a Clipper hit around here last week, missed the Fri/Sat storm...now parts of NE/IA are going to get some weak frontal snows this Sat/Sun, then another open wave on Tue/Wed. I'm sure the met's out there are saying this is an active pattern...but of course, in our back yard its not going to be. Then prospects for next Thu/Fri are still on the table....so you see, there is an active pattern but not the BIG storms I'm sure your hoping for. The pattern continues into the following week as well as storms continue to hit the west coast. That's exactly what I understand as well. Once the jet relaxes, look out! I know March of 98 was snowy after a dull February.Really can't compare 97-98 to this winter though. Solar activity was higher then and the PDO was in the cold phase. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 0z GFS was pretty good for eastern NE at least. The mild look to next weekend has cooled off a lot on the GFS.Models are really flopping around in this pattern. I know if the MJO stays and cycles where it is, it will tend to be cooler in the Midwest. Except for some lower heights over the North Pole in 7-8 days, ridging is pretty dominate this run in the Arctic. Scandinavian Ridge pops back into the polar regions at day 10. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 0z GFS was pretty good for eastern NE at least. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016011700/gfs_asnow_ncus_32.png The mild look to next weekend has cooled off a lot on the GFS.Not bad for boston Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Would love to see this storm tap into that pool of polar air on Day 11. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 I don't believe in snow anymore. Lol. Screw this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Couple 6z gfs ensembles crush Chicago/Milwaukee areas on the hr 108 storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Couple 6z gfs ensembles crush Chicago/Milwaukee areas on the hr 108 stormnot happening! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Dr. Cohen has since changed his tune...models are flip flopping big time for the extended period... If you enjoy winter weather, IMHO the 0Z GFS was as as optimal a solution as you could have hoped for- #SSW and -AO! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Hard to get excited about cold when there's no snow to show for. Whiff on Tuesday, whiff on Thursday most likely, and nothing really on the horizon after that for awhile. Sums up winter in a nutshell so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Huge snowstorm for the EC next week. GFS and Euro are both caving in. A 2 footer for the Philly area, NYC 12"+, Wash, DC as well. Boston, somewhat less for now. Still changes are to be expected throughout next week, but models are looking at a major snowstorm for late next week. Who gets how much is still in the air. Hopefully, we can cash in at some of that wealth by bringing that storm more inland. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Huge snowstorm for the EC next week. GFS and Euro are both caving in. A 2 footer for the Philly area, NYC 12"+, Wash, DC as well. Boston, somewhat less for now. Still changes are to be expected throughout next week, but models are looking at a major snowstorm for late next week. Who gets how much is still in the air. Hopefully, we can cash in at some of that wealth by bringing that storm more inland.If that system can come out of the Rockies stronger and track across the country it can trend farther north. Nonetheless, the EC may finally get their first big snow of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 If that system can come out of the Rockies stronger and track across the country it can trend farther north. Nonetheless, the EC may finally get their first big snow of the season. 12z GFS started out stronger than 6z but spacing between waves was awful. Need it to slow down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 12z GFS started out stronger than 6z but spacing between waves was awful. Need it to slow down.This one has a good potential to lay down a large swath of snows from the Rockies to the EC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 12z GFS started out stronger than 6z but spacing between waves was awful. Need it to slow down.Ckicking through the gfs its amazing.how fast those systems scream across the country Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 As the EPO relaxes, this allows the Pacific to feed waves of energy into the central CONUS. With enough residual cold air in the region, the GFS is suggesting a system every 2-3 days starting this Tue/Wed. Let's see how much certain parts of the sub-forum can build up their snow pack over the coming 10 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Relaxing epo might be an understatement. Like where all the teleconnectors seem to be heading Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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