westMJim Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 not really the right place for this but its the best place to post it.The CPC came out with their updated seasonal long range guess (outlook) yesterday a few of their ideas are somewhat interesting. First the people at the CPC are guessing that spring will have a higher percentage of being warmer and dryer in our areaSpring CPC guess http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1and that this summer with have a higher percentage of being warmer then average for the whole UShttp://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4Not sure if that can happen I have not seen where the whole country was above average for a whole month before. I would take that guess with a grain of salt. The CPC came out with their updated seasonal long range guess (outlook) yesterday a few of their ideas are somewhat interesting. First the people at the CPC are guessing that spring will have a higher percentage of being warmer and dryer in our areaSpring CPC guess http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1and that this summer with have a higher percentage of being warmer then average for the whole UShttp://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4Not sure if that can happen I have not seen where the whole country was above average for a whole month before. I would take that guess with a grain of salt. Now for the cold and snow lovers who are suffering from depression this winter here is some thing to brighten up your day. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=4andhttp://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=11I also have never seen that outlook from the CPC a year out before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 12z looks active in the long range but we all know how that has worked out this winter. I could get used to the weather we are having today for sure! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 What the heck..might as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 Gfs lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 Gfs lol Has the same idea as the Para Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 12z looks active in the long range but we all know how that has worked out this winter. I could get used to the weather we are having today for sure!Yeah it is! I counted no less than 9 systems on the 12Z GFS over the 384 hour period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 19, 2016 Report Share Posted February 19, 2016 18z GFS looks very much like the euro with a system bringing snow from STL to Chicagohttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160219/18Z/f138/acckucherasnowconus.png 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2016 GFS storm still there, just a bit east. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2016 Report Share Posted February 20, 2016 Tom shouldnt have left that thing has eyes on chicago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 20, 2016 Report Share Posted February 20, 2016 That thing can keep pushing east! Let's go spring Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 20, 2016 Report Share Posted February 20, 2016 That thing can keep pushing east! Let's go spring I get your point after this year, but hard to root against a chance at a major system any time, especially in Feb. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 20, 2016 Report Share Posted February 20, 2016 If anyone over to the east gets decent snow from next week's system, it should be a real slopfest. Today's GFS and Euro show surface temps well into the 30s under the defo zone. I'll gladly miss more slop. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcusBeier Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 Can we start a thread? Its my final Snow storm before I move to Hurricane central for ever 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 Snow pack no longer a pack. Nice to see the GFS back off on the days and days or cryptic cold as expected Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 Models are starting to pick up on a late month juiced up Clipper riding an arctic boundary which heads south out of Canada around the 28th/29th. Last night's Euro Para was showing this and the GFS is now seeing it also. Could be a wintry finish to the month near the Lakes/Midwest to what has been a bi-polar month of extremes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 The idea that Winter will continue through at least mid March is still on track. With a solid -AO pattern developing and a neutral EPO/NAO, I don't see any warm spells on the horizon, maybe in the Plains at first.Here are some models giving us a glance of what may be expected... As is typical in El Nino years, the coldest months relative to average are in March. Next month may end up being the snowiest month overall for this entire season.l Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 12z GGEM/GFS in agreement with a juiced up Clipper late this weekend...yet another system on it's heels a couple days later. If things line up just right, someone in the Midwest/Lakes could be buried. 12z GFS is farther south with the 3rd storm in early March. Let the storm train begin! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 Every clipper has lost juice as we get closer this winter. Hopefully the turnaround is near Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 Euro has a nice warm tongue up into Iowa this weekend with 60 degrees here both days, but the GFS/CMC are not nearly as bullish, especially for Sunday. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 February has been a complete dud around here except for the Groundhog's Day storm. If not for that storm we'd be at less than an inch of snow for the month and 5 degrees above average for temps. Doesn't look like that will change before the end either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Looking like March will roar in like a lion this year. Like a lion caked in snow, lol. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 EPS showing another potential major system developing in the same region as the current storm (near Texarkana) then cutting up through the OV/Lakes Day 9-10...pattern is becoming pretty active in the foreseeable future. The plains have their chances of snowfall Week 1-2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Looking like March will roar in like a lion this year. Like a lion caked in snow, lol.Yup, I had a good idea it would. The LRC suggests the Nov 21st storm to repeat right around March 1st-3rd. Models are def showing something big in that range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 The 00z GFS has Michigan getting absolutely hammered over the next 240hrs 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 One storm after another on the GFS. GGEM has the 29th storm. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Pattern is loaded with storms as we head into March. March will roar in like a Lion this year and probably won't let go for an extended period. LRC's active and wet pattern will be cycling back through and some exciting weather on the horizon. GEFS/EPS look cold/stormy from the Rockies towards the Lakes. There are going to be some juicy systems and with blocking over the top, someone is going to see some hefty snow fall totals. El Nino's are known to have some back-loaded winter storms and this one is heading that way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Michigan looks to be the hot spot at least on the GFS Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Gonna be classic watching the models the next 2 weeks. Everything on the table from snow to ice to thunderstorms... Pretty classic march nino Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016022312/gfs_asnow_ncus_41.pngMichigan is absolutely crushed!!!! Especially, SEMI. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 23, 2016 Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 zzzzz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troop Posted February 24, 2016 Report Share Posted February 24, 2016 zzzzz Always the optimist you are, you seem to be indicating a disbelief in the weather pattern described by Tom and others above. Meterologically, could you offer anything to the message board to support the ho-hum, yet articulate, post you offered us? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted February 24, 2016 Report Share Posted February 24, 2016 i want to go to the advanced severe weather seminar. its march 13. but i also plow snow. is only $40, but non refundable after the 24th. lol i know its a ways out. but hows that weekend looking. lol. i hate to register and not show up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 24, 2016 Report Share Posted February 24, 2016 Leave it to eastern IA to be in the sweet spot on this GFS. The storm in question is still 8 days away and if I've learned anything it's to not worry about track until 2-3 days before. At least it shows a pretty decent storm. Could be a fun one to track if trends continue. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2016 i want to go to the advanced severe weather seminar. its march 13. but i also plow snow. is only $40, but non refundable after the 24th. lol i know its a ways out. but hows that weekend looking. lol. i hate to register and not show up. March 13! That's a ways out. Mid March can go a lot of different ways for weather. Got a feeling winter might hang around well into the month though. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted February 24, 2016 Report Share Posted February 24, 2016 thats what im afraid of. lol why do they always do this stuff during snow season... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2016 thats what im afraid of. lol why do they always do this stuff during snow season... Is that the Fermi Lab one?They usually do that in April. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted February 24, 2016 Report Share Posted February 24, 2016 this one..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2016 this one..... Nice.The chances of a snowstorm on the 13th is slim probably. I wouldn't sweat it. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchtastic Posted February 24, 2016 Report Share Posted February 24, 2016 nicehttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016022400/ecmwf_T850a_namer_10.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016022400/ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.