12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[gabel23]

Mean while its snowing like crazy in El Paso at the sun bowl!! 

[WBadgersW]

Just read the MKX update, they are favoring the Euro and NAM.

[Grizzcoat]

Watching WSU in the Sun Bowl in El Paso and it's snowing pretty good there right now.

 

Somewhat interesting since it wasn't supposed to change to snow there till around Midnight.

Those are impressive flakes for EL Paso---   agree wasn't supposed to be snowing like it is now down there until later tonight...

[OKwx2k4]

Pretty stout little tornado outbreak occurring down here right now.

[gabel23]

Those are impressive flakes for EL Paso---   agree wasn't supposed to be snowing like it is now down there until later tonight...

If you look at El Paso's forecast page it shows 41 degrees and light rain...

[gabel23]

Something about this storm that makes me aggravated. If all this rain were anywhere east of here, this would be one of the most over covered hype and panic storms for flooding anywhere on the news. But it's Oklahoma, a foot of rain, probably historic river flooding and flooding in many other areas. Nothing to see here folks. Lol. I guess Oklahoma/Arkansas don't really generate the ratings like South Carolina does.

You are seeing tornado warnings, blizzard warnings, flood warnings and now an ice storm warning. You guys are going to have a tough night! 

 

 

Ice Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

431 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

 

OKZ015-016-021-022-033>036-270645-

/O.UPG.KOUN.WS.W.0003.151227T0000Z-151229T0000Z/

/O.NEW.KOUN.IS.W.0003.151227T0000Z-151229T0000Z/

DEWEY-CUSTER-BECKHAM-WASHITA-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...

ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...HOLLIS...MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS

431 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

 

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM

WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY. THE WINTER

STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

 

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

 

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ONE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF

ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD

RECEIVE NEARLY AN INCH OF ICE.

 

* IMPACTS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY INITIALLY BECOME SLICK AND

HAZARDOUS LATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALL ROADWAY CONDITIONS WILL

THEN DETERIORATE BY LATE SUNDAY AS SNOW AND SLEET DEVELOP ACROSS

THE REGION. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LIKELY.

[Iowa2015]

Winter storm watch posedfor here. It be interesting to see how this plays out not exactly buying into all that Sow at this point.

[Geos]

USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_060.gif

 

If the GFS could actually pull it off, it might actually snow. 7" 15 miles to my north and barely 2" here.

[Geos]

Uh 6"+ on that run hahaha the old 18z GFS at it again.

 

If I were your spot I'd just ride it and see what happens.

 

For comparison. 12z

 

 

[Tom]

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM..

 

 

 

ROSWELL IS FORECAST TO RECEIVE RECORD
BREAKING SNOW ACCUMULATION OF NEARLY 20 INCHES. WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS AND SNOW DRIFTS MEASURED IN FEET WILL MAKE TRAVEL
DANGEROUS AND IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

Wonder where all the UFO's are going to land now...haha!

 

When I drove down to AZ this past summer on I-40 driving through OKC, Amarillo, TX and Albuquerque, NM...I thought to myself...what would it look like in a major winter storm this coming Winter???  Here we are, that thought is now manifesting into reality.  That drive is very "boring" for those who haven't experienced it.  When you get into Albuquerque, the mountainous region mixes in with the desert landscape and it looks quite nice.

[mlgamer]

When I drove down to AZ this past summer on I-40 driving through OKC, Amarillo, TX and Albuquerque, NM...I thought to myself...what would it look like in a major winter storm this coming Winter???  Here we are, that thought is now manifesting into reality.  That drive is very "boring" for those who haven't experienced it.  When you get into Albuquerque, the mountainous region mixes in with the desert landscape and it looks quite nice.

 

I made that trip last July.  Topeka, KS, OKC, AMA, ABQ, Flagstaff and the Grand Canyon to Zion National Park in Utah and I-70 back to Kansas.  New Mexico west of ABQ was very pretty I thought. OKC to ABQ was not particularly exciting to me anyway. Lots of wind farms as I remember.

[Tom]

I made that trip last July.  Topeka, KS, OKC, AMA, ABQ, Flagstaff and the Grand Canyon to Zion National Park in Utah and I-70 back to Kansas.  New Mexico west of ABQ was very pretty I thought. OKC to ABQ was not particularly exciting to me anyway. Lots of wind farms as I remember.

West of ABQ and especially when you get into Arizona it is beautiful.  The mountainous region of Flagstaff, AZ is full of pine trees rather than the desert landscape which I like.  My parents are visiting me from AZ for the holiday and they said the ski season this year was off to a fast start.  This particular storm dumped a few inches in that region.  Over the last 2 winters they couldn't buy a flake of snow because of the west coast ridge.  I've never been to Zion National Park but it is on my bucket list of places to visit and hike.

[Tom]

There she is...ULL spinning down near the 4 corners region...only if there was a little more blocking, this storm would produce prolific snowfall.  Hopefully next cycle that will be the case.

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

[mlgamer]

West of ABQ and especially when you get into Arizona it is beautiful.  The mountainous region of Flagstaff, AZ is full of pine trees rather than the desert landscape which I like.  My parents are visiting me from AZ for the holiday and they said the ski season this year was off to a fast start.  This particular storm dumped a few inches in that region.  Over the last 2 winters they couldn't buy a flake of snow because of the west coast ridge.  I've never been to Zion National Park but it is on my bucket list of places to visit and hike.

 

We stayed one night in Flagstaff and I remember the smell of pine trees all around our motel.  Very pretty.  We also went 30 minutes south to Slide Rock State Park and went swimming in the canyon there. Great fun!

 

Zion is worth the visit if you get out that way again. Very pretty! My daughter and son in law hiked in the upper narrow canyons where you have to wade through water in places. Me and the wife hiked down a bit lower.  Flash flooding can be a problem in those narrow canyons and I think around seven people drowned there a month or two after we had visited because of flash flooding. It made the national news as I remember.

[Geos]

The entire state of Iowa is under a winter storm watch now. Don't see an entire state covered in one type of watch too often.

 

[bainbridgekid]

We stayed one night in Flagstaff and I remember the smell of pine trees all around our motel.  Very pretty.  We also went 30 minutes south to Slide Rock State Park and went swimming in the canyon there. Great fun!

 

Zion is worth the visit if you get out that way again. Very pretty! My daughter and son in law hiked in the upper narrow canyons where you have to wade through water in places. Me and the wife hiked down a bit lower.  Flash flooding can be a problem in those narrow canyons and I think around seven people drowned there a month or two after we had visited because of flash flooding. It made the national news as I remember.

The Narrows at Zion is an amazing experience.

 

The path went through parts of the river like this when I was there this past Summer:

 

[gabel23]

The entire state of Iowa is under a winter storm watch now. Don't see an entire state covered in one type of watch too often.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/US.png

Iowa is always in a good position for storms, I have seen it when the entire state is in a blizzard warning (dec 8, 2009). In my opinion, if you want winter storms Iowa is a great place to be.

[buzzman289]

The storm watches are not in line with the euro maps. Just sayin

[Geos]

DVN graphic.

 

[FarmerRick]

Meanwhile, killer tornadoes North of Dallas.

 

https://www.periscope.tv/w/1eaKbMeOvVRxX

[gabel23]

Meanwhile, killer tornadoes North of Dallas.

 

https://www.periscope.tv/w/1eaKbMeOvVRxX

Holy cow it's bad in Texas, it's been a while since I've heard Jeff talk like that.....large violent tornadoes.

[gabel23]

Not to jinx it but this thing is coming together stronger than advertised in my opinion......I think models tonight will have some surprises for us.

[gosaints]

NAM not budging thru 36

[UnionWX]

Not to jinx it but this thing is coming together stronger than advertised in my opinion......I think models tonight will have some surprises for us.

I agree. I was quite surprised it was snowing in El Paso that early.

[Geos]

NAM does that weird retrograding movement again. Up to Texarkana and then almost straight west a 100 miles.

[gosaints]

Its got a double barrel you can see it better on instant weather

[Geos]

Looks like it slightly colder out ahead of the storm at 42 hours.

 

Low has come east 50-70 miles or so.

 

[Geos]

 

Snow is coming east up towards the lake now.

[gosaints]

Hope the nam is overdoing warm air aloft. Snow map ob instant weather is not inspiring

[Geos]

Hope the nam is overdoing warm air aloft. Snow map ob instant weather is not inspiring

 

No it's not, I'm surprised by the lack of snow in SW WI and Iowa given the maps.

 

[Money]

Fzr to snow?

[gosaints]

No it's not, I'm surprised by the lack of snow in SW WI and Iowa given the maps.

 

0zNAM_122815.png

That would be alot of pingers around here..

[bud2380]

[Geos]

Fzr to snow?

 

Actually looks like sleet to snow for you. Starting to look like sleet to a bit of rain to snow here.

 

[winterfreak]

Nasty look on the NAM. Four tents of an inch of ice with two inches of snow is yuck.

[Geos]

[ToastedRavs]

Looking at the sounding for Des Moines on the NAM.... It has us with nine hours of sleet before switching to snow. In about 48 hours, we can chalk up another example as to why NOT to consider the NAM.

[Geos]

4km NAM has the low slightly east of the 12km.

 

 

 

[bainbridgekid]

Actually looks like sleet to snow for you. Starting to look like sleet to a bit of rain to snow here.

How close are you to the lake?

 

I'm expecting a mix bag of sleet/wet snow/freezing rain in the morning changing fairly quickly to a very cold rain here in Evanston. I'll be pleasantly surprised by any kind of actual accumulation here.

 

I'm not super familiar with the intricacies of the climate here, but I feel like relying on low level cold with a 40 mph wind blowing off the 45 degree lake is a recipe for disappointment.

[Tom]

RPM model for N IL has precip falling as snow initially from I-88/80 on north, then a mixed bag, then back to snow around 6:00pm Monday.  Looked like for the most part S WI was mainly snow...hmmm...