12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[bainbridgekid]

Low is over Shreveport. Heading east of all guidance.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/pmsl/pmsl.gif?1451280776692

Definitely seems to be, but it could be a bit misleading since it's also becoming somewhat elongated to the West of the low.

 

Still like seeing the low where it is on there since most models had it barely missing the NW corner of Louisiana.

[Geos]

Definitely seems to be, but it could be a bit misleading since it's also becoming somewhat elongated to the West of the low.

 

Still like seeing the low where it is on there since most models had it barely missing the NW corner of Louisiana.

 

Nice banana-ing out of the high in Nebraska. Would be something if the low passed near Pine Bluff, AR. Probably will be more like Little Rock or Hot Springs.

[Madtown]

What's your thought on Madison, geos?

[Geos]

What's your thought on Madison, geos?

 

75-80% snow, 20-25% sleet.

At least 6" of snow.

 

---

 

Chicago Storm pointed this out to me on AMWX. Convection is pulling the SLP east into LA right now.

Loop this and pay attention to the end of it.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/analysis/surface/index.php?type=sgp-fronts-1

[bainbridgekid]

What's your thought on Madison, geos?

Not Geos but I think you should be in a pretty good spot.

 

Temps are already in the upper 20's up there and most models show 1"+ of frozen QPF. Probably a dicey mix of snow to sleet to freezing rain and back to snow, but I'd have to imagine you'd most likely get some decent snow/sleet accumulations.

 

Huge uncertainty though with the incredibly complex thermal profile.

[gosaints]

Euro looks alot like the ukie

[Jaycee]

75-80% snow, 20-25% sleet.

At least 6" of snow.

 

---

 

Chicago Storm pointed this out to me on AMWX. Convection is pulling the SLP east into LA right now.

Loop this and pay attention to the end of it.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/analysis/surface/index.php?type=sgp-fronts-1

Not to be that guy, but what are your thoughts on Red Wing, Minnesota (40 miles N of Rochester)?

 

Also, sorry for my lack of concrete input, forgot my laptop over break and haven't been able to post much.

[Grizzcoat]

00Z Euro has sub 994 L very near Quincy,IL. some 75 miles further E then this time yday.

[hlcater]

WOOOOO GREAT EURO RUN! 

[jcwxguy]

Euro caves! Lol

[Geos]

Not to be that guy, but what are your thoughts on Red Wing, Minnesota (40 miles N of Rochester)?

 

Also, sorry for my lack of concrete input, forgot my laptop over break and haven't been able to post much.

 

Well, all snow for starters. Given the temperatures up there, you'll likely see double digits. Guessimate: 10"-14"

I think the 7" put out by MPX is too conservative.

 

Full Canadian snowfall map finally!

 

[Madtown]

^giddyup

[Jaycee]

Well, all snow for starters. Given the temperatures up there, you'll likely see double digits. Guessimate: 10"-14"

You rock man, thanks! Hope my Nebraskans still do well, it's hard to tell without access to all the models.

 

If someone can post the EURO snowfall maps that'd be awesome!

[Money]

Poor Jim Flowers

[gabel23]

I'll be lucky to see 2" if it's that much further east.

[Geos]

SLP jumped NE in the last hour.

 

 

Flirting with freezing now. 32.7°. Wind getting stronger.

[Geos]

Flowers quote:
 

 

Euro is in and has 2"...it has taken the heaviest snow almost east of Des Moines! The consistency shown from last Tuesday is gone 12 hrs before it's supposed to start....wow. Time to watch satellite trends to see if models are correct. Short range hires still has around 8".

 

[winterfreak]

Heavy sleet here in KC.

[Madtown]

27 atm here

[bainbridgekid]

Not to be that guy, but what are your thoughts on Red Wing, Minnesota (40 miles N of Rochester)?

 

Also, sorry for my lack of concrete input, forgot my laptop over break and haven't been able to post much.

I think it'll be close for you for getting the really heavy amounts.

 

Should be plenty cold enough for all snow but the heaviest axis of snow will likely be to your SE. I bet you get 8-12" so should be a real nice storm.

 

Definitely an annoying amount of uncertainty for less than 24 hours out though.

[Jaycee]

I think it'll be close for you for getting the really heavy amounts.

 

Should be plenty cold enough for all snow but the heaviest axis of snow will likely be to your SE. I bet you get 8-12" so should be a real nice storm.

 

Definitely an annoying amount of uncertainty for less than 24 hours out though.

 

Heard that. It's crazy how all the models are everywhere yet. I know most hated the NAM, but it gives me 24-27". MPX mentions 15:1 ratios and 3" hour snowfall rates. Hoping the NAM somehow comes to fruition, would be one for the books if it came true.

[Money]

Anyone have euro snow maps?

[bud2380]

Euro shifted WAY east with snow placement.  Probably 200 miles on the heaviest band of snow. 

[bud2380]

Canadian Hi-Res

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2015122800/iowa/hrdps_snow_iowa_37.png

[bud2380]

Euro

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2015122800/mw/ecmwf_tsnow_mw_11.png

[bud2380]

12z Euro - 

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2015122712/mw/ecmwf_tsnow_mw_13.png

[bainbridgekid]

King Euro is dethroned. 

[winterfreak]

EURO 8-10" imby on weatherbell clown maps.

[Geos]

Canadian Hi-Res

 

 

If it shows 13" for Rockford, how much does it have here? You don't have to post the map, just look in the very NE corner of IL.

[Money]

Hrrr coming in colder again

[Geos]

EURO 8-10" imby on weatherbell clown maps.

 

Gotta love that little backward "J" tail!

EURO showing KC a little snow love.

[Madtown]

Going to love the afd out of mkx

[bainbridgekid]

Euro actually shows a couple inches of snow for Chicago.

[Grizzcoat]

Reminder on the Euro--- it busted very bad within 12 hours on the Mid-NOV snow event in IA. Heaviest band was nearly 100 miles S of where the Euro thought only 12hours out--- --

 

and Jim Flowers-- he should know more then anybody that Mother Nature will do whatever it can to make a fool of you when you try to predict it. Now watch the heaviest snow set up in his backyard and make a fool of me!!

[ToastedRavs]

Flowers quote:

 

 

 

And as most of us said earlier...THAT'S why you don't rely on just one model run and throw everything out.  My oh my...some of those viewers went to bed and will be sad when they wake up.  And I feel worse for the businesses that relied on his forecast alone---if it does indeed bust.  I just hope that his channel or he, himself, were on air hinting at the possibility of a miss.

[ToastedRavs]

Please oh please, let the Euro be my hero!  DSM numbers from 0z Euro:

MON 06Z 28-DEC  -5.1    -4.6    1030      62       1    0.00     565     541    MON 12Z 28-DEC  -2.9    -5.1    1021      73     100    0.05     560     543    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -3.5    -6.5    1013      91      98    0.41     555     545    TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -3.1    -7.2    1005      91     100    0.65     546     543    TUE 06Z 29-DEC  -3.6    -7.5    1006      89      88    0.28     547     542    TUE 12Z 29-DEC  -7.3    -9.9    1014      87      60    0.04     550     539    TUE 18Z 29-DEC  -6.5    -8.6    1021      85      31    0.00     555     539    

[Madtown]

MSN numbers please

[gosaints]

Please oh please, let the Euro be my hero!  DSM numbers from 0z Euro:

MON 06Z 28-DEC -5.1 -4.6 1030 62 1 0.00 565 541

MON 12Z 28-DEC -2.9 -5.1 1021 73 100 0.05 560 543

MON 18Z 28-DEC -3.5 -6.5 1013 91 98 0.41 555 545

TUE 00Z 29-DEC -3.1 -7.2 1005 91 100 0.65 546 543

TUE 06Z 29-DEC -3.6 -7.5 1006 89 88 0.28 547 542

TUE 12Z 29-DEC -7.3 -9.9 1014 87 60 0.04 550 539

TUE 18Z 29-DEC -6.5 -8.6 1021 85 31 0.00 555 539

 

The euro doesnt just spit out cold sector qpf like that everyday

[ToastedRavs]

MSN:

MON 06Z 28-DEC  -2.5    -5.1    1032      65      13    0.00     567     543    MON 12Z 28-DEC  -2.2    -2.7    1028      63      35    0.00     564     542    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -2.6    -5.0    1021      78     100    0.23     561     545    TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -2.6    -5.5    1007      89      99    0.61     553     548    TUE 06Z 29-DEC  -1.4    -3.7    1002      91      60    0.38     536     535    TUE 12Z 29-DEC  -1.2    -2.8    1005      93      51    0.03     548     543    TUE 18Z 29-DEC  -1.8    -6.9    1014      83      59    0.03     553     542    WED 00Z 30-DEC  -1.9    -9.3    1019      90      23    0.00     556     541    

IOW:

MON 06Z 28-DEC  -1.0    -2.8    1028      62       7    0.00     566     544    MON 12Z 28-DEC  -1.4    -2.5    1021      80     100    0.18     563     546    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -1.7    -4.9    1012      88     100    0.73     558     549    TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -0.5    -3.8    1000      91      89    0.79     544     544    TUE 06Z 29-DEC  -1.0    -2.1    1000      91      71    0.13     546     546    TUE 12Z 29-DEC  -3.2    -6.8    1010      89      80    0.02     550     542    TUE 18Z 29-DEC  -5.4    -6.8    1018      86      19    0.00     556     542    

DBQ:

MON 06Z 28-DEC  -1.8    -2.3    1030      60       6    0.00     567     543    MON 12Z 28-DEC  -1.6    -2.4    1024      65      90    0.02     563     544    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -2.7    -3.5    1016      89      99    0.58     559     547    TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -1.9    -4.7    1003      89      80    0.63     548     546    TUE 06Z 29-DEC  -1.4    -2.9    1000      90      96    0.32     542     541    TUE 12Z 29-DEC  -2.0    -5.5    1008      91      95    0.03     549     543    TUE 18Z 29-DEC  -1.8    -7.0    1015      82      36    0.01     554     542    

Remember....the warm layer is between 700 and 850mb so keep that in mind when looking at numbers

[Geos]

Looks like about 5" of snow from the EURO here.

 

I read that the EURO dropped the 850mb temps in NE IL by a couple degrees C. Thundersnow of AMWX posted this gif. http://gifmaker.cc/PlayGIFAnimation.php?folder=2015122712BETq2fU0h2TP9s30OLFpiG&file=output_79d6Fh.gif

 

I would say everyone up to the NW corner of IL now, is probably going to have mainly snow.