January 2016 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Google is a powerful tool.

 

http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/heavy-snow-hits-western-central-japan-okinawa-feels-chill-too

I googled Okinawa snow and the forecast popped up and some links to climate data... the current temp was way warmer than I expected. I could have done more research obviously!

[Jesse]

Barring a failed pendulum cycle (1986-1988, for example), I wouldn't be worried about another potent El Niño next fall/winter. I could easily see a warm-neutral outcome, but am still thinking La Niña.

 

Failed pendulum cycles sound like a drag.

[Dave]

Failed pendulum cycles sound like a drag.

Long time observations suggest that with each failed pendulum cycle, 3 kittens die.

[Deweydog]

Pretty dark here.

[Timmy]

Wrf backed way off on snow here from 2-4" to maybe a dusting on the 00z run. That's frustrating

[Timmy]

Basically the 00z is crapping on the long range too. Ridge is much further east in the hr 220 time frame

[MossMan]

Pretty dark here.

Solar minimum.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WRF wants to give me a couple inches of snow Monday morning...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/or_snow24.48.0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Wrf backed way off on snow here from 2-4" to maybe a dusting on the 00z run. That's frustrating

 

 

Yeah... the WRF been way to wet for my area as well.    There was maybe 2 minutes of ice pellets here today and sun at times.    And then it showed a solid c-zone this evening and there is nothing happening.

[Deweydog]

1-29-16 18z GFS.

 

#inremembrance

#neverforget

[Phil]

Long time observations suggest that with each failed pendulum cycle, 3 kittens die.

http://i.gifntext.com/38621-you-think-this-is-a-motherfucking-joke.gif​

[snow_wizard]

​

 

Now that is a kitten on a mission!

[snow_wizard]

Basically the 00z is crapping on the long range too. Ridge is much further east in the hr 220 time frame

 

Obviously the uncertainty is huge right now.

[GHweatherChris]

37 here with chunky rain with shower confirmed by windshield splat test.  

[snow_wizard]

On a somewhat positive note this will be the 6th consecutive month to average below the same month one year earlier.  This January will come in below 2003, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2015, and some earlier Januaries.  The torch is fading.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Obviously the uncertainty is huge right now.

I'm pretty certain we won't have Arctic air.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On a somewhat positive note this will be the 6th consecutive month to average below the same month one year earlier. This January will come in below 2003, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2015, and some earlier Januaries. The torch is fading.

That is good. It's been a bad run. Overall this winter will go down as warm and wet.

[TT-SEA]

On a somewhat positive note this will be the 6th consecutive month to average below the same month one year earlier.  This January will come in below 2003, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2015, and some earlier Januaries.  The torch is fading.

 

The climate is warming and that is probably not going to change.    But its not just going upward from the warmest year ever either. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z Canadian is really amplified.      

[snow_wizard]

That is good. It's been a bad run. Overall this winter will go down as warm and wet.

 

It will, but a large chunk of time averaged below normal from mid Dec to mid Jan. We also had a cold run in November and will have some below normal days in Feb.  Could have been worse.

[snow_wizard]

I'm pretty certain we won't have Arctic air.

 

We actually have a better chance than if there was nothing but zonal flow showing up in the models.  The ECMWF control model has had many runs showing a major Feb cold wave.  Chances are against it, but it's not out of the question.

[Weather101]

We actually have a better chance than if there was nothing but zonal flow showing up in the models. The ECMWF control model has had many runs showing a major Feb cold wave. Chances are against it, but it's not out of the question.

100% out of the question. Just being real.

[Bryant]

100% out of the question. Just being real.

Based off of what? Your opinion?

[snow_wizard]

100% out of the question. Just being real.

 

Insane statement.  I'm sure you would have said the same in 1962 when it torched for the first 2/3 of Feb.  You would have been very wrong.

[ShawniganLake]

Insane statement.  I'm sure you would have said the same in 1962 when it torched for the first 2/3 of Feb.  You would have been very wrong.

Any good Nino analogs with arctic air after mid Feb?

 

Seems Like the stratospheric warming forecast would favor the cold going east for February.  Although, I did see an MJO forecast for later in February that would generally argue for mild air in the east later in the month. 

[snow_wizard]

Any good Nino analogs with arctic air after mid Feb?

 

Seems Like the stratospheric warming forecast would favor the cold going east for February.  Although, I did see an MJO forecast for later in February that would generally argue for mild air in the east later in the month. 

 

There are 3 Nino winters that had Arctic air in February.  All mid month for some strange reason.  We have an impressive MJO forecast to go through regions 4 through 6.  Somewhere in there should be favorable for a cold Western trough.  Any Western ridge should collapse or retrograde rather quickly. 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF Nino plumes are going to be updated tomorrow.  Can't wait to see how they look.  Kind of a bummer they don't update that every day like the CFS.

[ShawniganLake]

Snowing nicely above 1000ft in Vancouver this morning.  Too bad most people live below that elevation. 

 

[snow_wizard]

Geeze.  I was just looking at my weather records for last Feb and it was one ugly turd to say the least.  Absolute torch with drizzly rain every single day the first half of the month.  This one looks worlds better for the first half at least.

[snow_wizard]

Snowing nicely above 1000ft in Vancouver this morning.  Too bad most people live below that elevation. 

 

sfu.jpg

 

Nice.

 

It managed to drop to 34 here in spite of cloud cover this morning.  A decently chilly air mass.

[Phil]

Any good Nino analogs with arctic air after mid Feb?

 

Seems Like the stratospheric warming forecast would favor the cold going east for February. Although, I did see an MJO forecast for later in February that would generally argue for mild air in the east later in the month.

A SSW/wind reversal in the polar stratosphere says nothing about where the cold air will go. That will be determined by other factors like tropical forcings/QBO.

[Phil]

There are 3 Nino winters that had Arctic air in February. All mid month for some strange reason. We have an impressive MJO forecast to go through regions 4 through 6. Somewhere in there should be favorable for a cold Western trough. Any Western ridge should collapse or retrograde rather quickly.

Intraseasonal/MJO forcing will affect poleward circulation differently in a strong El Niño than it will in a strong La Niña, for example. Looking at unfiltered phase diagrams and ignoring the antecedent forcings/niño isn't smart, in my opinion.

 

As I've been regurgitatinf for awhile, I February will probably be both warmer and drier than both December and January in the western U.S.

[Jesse]

Phil, when do you think our next best shot at a cooler than average month is?

[Phil]

Phil, when do you think our next best shot at a cooler than average month is?

For the foreseeable future, any "cool" months will be wet with plenty of zonal flow and relatively small temperature anomalies, so it's tough to say. I'm not predicting any significantly cooler than average months until the summer.

[snow_wizard]

For the foreseeable future, any "cool" months will be wet with plenty of zonal flow and relatively small temperature anomalies, so it's tough to say. I'm not predicting any significantly cooler than average months until the summer.

 

Probably a good call.  I think we could come up with one or two below normal months between now and autumn.  By then I think we will be seeing a sharp drop in anomalies.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF and GEM are in solid agreement with strong ridging along the Western Canadian coastline up into Alaska ten days from now. The GFS is different. The GFS needs to get another upgrade.

 

 

 

 

The other day I was reading that the ECMWF will be undergoing some huge upgrades over the next couple of years that should make that model much better than it is now.  The GFS could be left in the dust.  That having been said the GFS still outperforms the ECMWF in some situations and in general from time to time.  The ECMWF is supposedly going to upgrade their parallel model to high res in March.  I'm not sure if that will become their main operational model or not, but I have been impressed with its performance a number of times.

 

That brings up the question of whether or not I want the models to become that accurate.  It would take some of the fun out of things knowing exactly what will happen IMO.  Some winters the model false alarms are the only fun part of the winter.  I figure we are probably at least 50 years from any model being able to accurately forecast Western lowland snowfall though.

[Deweydog]

Was at Snoqualmie Summit skiing and it's raining up here. Cold spell did not trend colder it seems.

Jimtastic!

[TT-SEA]

The other day I was reading that the ECMWF will be undergoing some huge upgrades over the next couple of years that should make that model much better than it is now. The GFS could be left in the dust. That having been said the GFS still outperforms the ECMWF in some situations and in general from time to time. The ECMWF is supposedly going to upgrade their parallel model to high res in March. I'm not sure if that will become their main operational model or not, but I have been impressed with its performance a number of times.

 

That brings up the question of whether or not I want the models to become that accurate. It would take some of the fun out of things knowing exactly what will happen IMO. Some winters the model false alarms are the only fun part of the winter. I figure we are probably at least 50 years from any model being able to accurately forecast Western lowland snowfall though.

Very interesting.

[Deweydog]

-1 at PDX today...

[Deweydog]

Here's a little fun fact to close out the month...

 

PDX's high today was 44. PDX has not had a high cooler than 44 degrees on January 31st since a chilly high of 28 in 1996.

 

#due