TT-SEA Posted August 25, 2016 Report Share Posted August 25, 2016 Did you already lose the link to the hires daily maps I gave you? http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/index.php http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif I did lose the link. I will add it again now. Looks about the same. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 25, 2016 Report Share Posted August 25, 2016 Yeah, no difference really, but the maps update more frequently and provide more detail. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 25, 2016 Report Share Posted August 25, 2016 If you really want in-depth SSTA maps/analysis, TropicalTidbits.com w/ CDAS is the best, IMO. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/ 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 25, 2016 Report Share Posted August 25, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 25, 2016 Report Share Posted August 25, 2016 Plus, it updates four times per day. Hard not to love that. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2016 What's with the "blob" reappearing? Or is that just a seasonal feature this time? Typical GOA warm pool associated with the developing negative PDO. The SSTs off the West Coast are colder than normal now. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 7, 2016 Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 1916-17 was also a Nina. Very nice cold season in the PNW. Analog? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 7, 2016 Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 1916-17 was also a Nina. Very nice cold season in the PNW. Analog? So you're calling for a 100 year winter??? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 7, 2016 Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 So you're calling for a 100 year winter??? 100 year winter? That might get old. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted September 7, 2016 Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 Not yet La Nina territory. Looks to be a weak Nina/neutral year, which is usually pretty good for PNW winters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 7, 2016 Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 Not yet La Nina territory. Looks to be a weak Nina/neutral year, which is usually pretty good for PNW winters.Strictly from an ENSO perspective, we haven't seen a lot of weak Ninas following major El Ninos. 1983, 1966, and 1958 are the closest matches in the modern era. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 7, 2016 Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 Strictly from an ENSO perspective, we haven't seen a lot of weak Ninas following major El Ninos. 1983, 1966, and 1958 are the closest matches in the modern era. Not quite as sexy as the 1916, 1943, 1950 analogs Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 7, 2016 Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 1966-67 was an unheralded bad winter. Negative neutral ENSO and negative PDO and it still turned into a pathetic blowtorchy poopfest without any sub 40 degree highs at PDX. Followed by a crappy cold March/April and a tinderbox summer. A truly awful stretch of weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 7, 2016 Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 Another round of trades initiates next week: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/80880376-C32C-41FC-91BE-58A3F4C47CC2_zpsiganyuk1.gif Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 7, 2016 Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 Those westerly anomalies around 90E are classic a classic EHEM forcing (Niña) feature, though their persistence at 90E in particular reflects a coherent -IOD signature, which has been absent in most recent Niña summers beyond mid-July..unusual to find a circulation quite like this one in recent memory.. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted September 7, 2016 Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 Those westerly anomalies around 90E are classic a classic EHEM forcing (Niña) feature, though their persistence at 90E in particular reflects a coherent -IOD signature, which has been absent in most recent Niña summers beyond mid-July..unusual to find a circulation quite like this one in recent memory..So what are you thinking, generally, for this winter? I am still thinking about it. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 7, 2016 Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 So what are you thinking, generally, for this winter? I am still thinking about it.Other than a tendency for stronger and/or poleward biased Pacific based anticyclones (some form of NPAC blocking) given the entrenching +QBO wave @ 50mb, I'm not sure what to expect. The rest will hinge on the nature of the PV/NAM state and the degree of vertical coupling in that regard, as well as the strength and longitude of the tropical convection over the IO/PAC between 20N/20S..and how these variables interact with one another and/or are influenced/affected by external (solar) forcing. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 7, 2016 Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 1966-67 was an unheralded bad winter. Negative neutral ENSO and negative PDO and it still turned into a pathetic blowtorchy poopfest without any sub 40 degree highs at PDX. Followed by a crappy cold March/April and a tinderbox summer. A truly awful stretch of weather. 1966-67 and 1999-00 are brothers in that regard. '66-67 was ridiculous though. No freeze at PDX until 1/31 and we're talking pre-UHI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 7, 2016 Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 1966-67 and 1999-00 are brothers in that regard. '66-67 was ridiculous though. No freeze at PDX until 1/31 and we're talking pre-UHI.12/25 actually, but prior to 2012-13 that was still the record for PDX's latest first freeze. 1999-00 also flirted with that record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 7, 2016 Report Share Posted September 7, 2016 12/25 actually, but prior to 2012-13 that was still the record for PDX's latest first freeze. 1999-00 also flirted with that record. My bad. I should have said "sub 32" since 1/31 was the first time we managed 31 degrees. I actually relied on memory from years ago for that stat, and forgot that 12/25 hit 32. Should have double checked! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 8, 2016 Report Share Posted September 8, 2016 My bad. I should have said "sub 32" since 1/31 was the first time we managed 31 degrees. I actually relied on memory from years ago for that stat, and forgot that 12/25 hit 32. Should have double checked!I mostly remembered the 12/25 thing because 2012 is still pretty fresh in my mind. I remember the weenie anticipation over us breaking the record by a few days that year. The sad thing is it's one record that I'm sure we'll break again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 8, 2016 Report Share Posted September 8, 2016 I mostly remembered the 12/25 thing because 2012 is still pretty fresh in my mind. I remember the weenie anticipation over us breaking the record by a few days that year. The sad thing is it's one record that I'm sure we'll break again. And I can't believe I forgot it! I definitely remember setting the record in 2012. We'll absolutely break that record again. Its low hanging fruit anytime before January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 8, 2016 Report Share Posted September 8, 2016 And I can't believe I forgot it! I definitely remember setting the record in 2012. We'll absolutely break that record again. Its low hanging fruit anytime before January.I'd give it another 12 years or so before it's toast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 8, 2016 Another round of trades initiates next week: Could you post a link for that graphic? The site I was using stopped updating a few months ago. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 8, 2016 Report Share Posted September 8, 2016 Could you post a link for that graphic? The site I was using stopped updating a few months ago.http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 9, 2016 Report Share Posted September 9, 2016 Long live La Neutral! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2016 Long live La Neutral! I'm betting weak Nina this winter and a moderate or strong next winter. Kind of like the 1983-84 and 1984-85 progression. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2016 http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html Thanks! The update looks pretty crazy with that trade wind burst. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 9, 2016 Report Share Posted September 9, 2016 Most long range forecasts show neutral heading toward weak nino as we approach next summer. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2016 Most long range forecasts show neutral heading toward weak nino as we approach next summer. Never happen. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 9, 2016 Report Share Posted September 9, 2016 Pretty good negative anomaly pool happening now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2016 Pretty good negative anomaly pool happening now. With a crazy trade wind burst coming this thing will get off the ground soon enough. As for a Nino next year...nearly impossible given the scope of the recent Nino. It would be unprecedented. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 9, 2016 Report Share Posted September 9, 2016 With a crazy trade wind burst coming this thing will get off the ground soon enough. As for a Nino next year...nearly impossible given the scope of the recent Nino. It would be unprecedented. I don't think so. We have been talking about crazy trade wind bursts for months and we don't have much of a Nina. And NOAA cancelled its La Nina Watch now. http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/09/la-nina-watch-canceled-by-noaa.html All the models show a ENSO warming through the winter now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 9, 2016 Report Share Posted September 9, 2016 To be fair, ENSO models are notoriously unreliable. I do think a tri-monthly ONI peak between -.4 and -.9 is most likely now, so yes, basically weak -ENSO whether it technically ends up as a La Nina or neutral winter. MEI is more telling, in my opinion. For Jul/Aug, it fell to .125, the lowest reading since Feb/Mar 2014. It was also lower than years like 2012, 2005, 2001, 1983, 1980, 1958. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 9, 2016 Report Share Posted September 9, 2016 To be fair, ENSO models are notoriously unreliable. I do think a tri-monthly ONI peak between -.4 and -.9 is most likely now, so yes, basically weak -ENSO whether it technically ends up as a La Nina or neutral winter. MEI is more telling, in my opinion. For Jul/Aug, it fell to .125, the lowest reading since Feb/Mar 2014. It was also lower than years like 2012, 2005, 2001, 1983, 1980, 1958. To be fair... I don't think "this thing will get off the ground soon enough" either. I agree that we will probably hover on the cool side neutral this winter. Something that was being mocked as a busted prediction by others as recently as July. I never really predicted it... just said it was what I preferred. Looks like it going to work out that way now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 9, 2016 Report Share Posted September 9, 2016 To be fair... I don't think "this thing will get off the ground soon enough" either. I agree that we will probably hover on the cool side neutral this winter. Something that was being mocked as a busted prediction by others as recently as July. I never really predicted it... just said it was what I preferred. Looks like it going to work out that way now. I think the lower the MEI gets heading into winter, the better things look for the PNW. Weak -ENSO/neutral winters tend to be better following a Nina, or within an established ENSO regime. How do you feel about 1966-67 or 1958-59? Because those are probably the two best ENSO progression matches at this time. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 9, 2016 Report Share Posted September 9, 2016 I think the lower the MEI gets heading into winter, the better things look for the PNW. Weak -ENSO/neutral winters tend to be better following a Nina, or within an established ENSO regime. How do you feel about 1966-67 or 1958-59? Because those are probably the two best ENSO progression matches at this time. Yeah... both those winters were pretty depressing. Lots of rain and almost no snow even at my location. We sort of had that last winter actually in terms of persistent precipitation. At least there was more snow last winter. Phil also mocked my use of the MEI for analog years though. There are lots of neutral years to look at... with lots of different results. Its tough to have solid analog years with ENSO neutral conditions. Other factors come into play more prominently. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 9, 2016 Report Share Posted September 9, 2016 I don't think so. We have been talking about crazy trade wind bursts for months and we don't have much of a Nina. And NOAA cancelled its La Nina Watch now. http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/09/la-nina-watch-canceled-by-noaa.html All the models show a ENSO warming through the winter now. Models are known to be wrong..in this case they're probably struggling with the handling of two oceanic rossby waves on either side of the equator. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 9, 2016 Report Share Posted September 9, 2016 Before 1950, 1906 and 1931 are both a good ENSO match. Two year, strong El Nino leading into cold neutral. Both of those winters were SE ridge/PNW trough delights. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 9, 2016 Report Share Posted September 9, 2016 Yeah... both those winters were pretty depressing. Lots of rain and almost no snow even at my location. We sort of had that last winter actually in terms of persistent precipitation. At least there was more snow last winter. Phil also mocked my use of the MEI for analog years though. There are lots of neutral years to look at... with lots of different results. Its tough to have solid analog years with ENSO neutral conditions. Other factors come into play more prominently.You're making stuff up again. I'm more than willing to drag up your posts on this matter. I mocked you for using 1958-59 as a summer analog because it was essentially a weak Niño..turns out, I was correct as it was a terrible summer pattern analog. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.