GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[jcwxguy]

.58 olu

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OLU    LAT=  41.45 LON=  -97.33 ELE=  1444                                            12Z JAN28                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK     SUN 06Z 31-JAN   4.3     5.6    1003      76      83    0.00     551     549    SUN 12Z 31-JAN   2.9     0.3    1005      81      97    0.02     548     545    SUN 18Z 31-JAN   3.6    -1.4    1007      64      84    0.03     546     540    MON 00Z 01-FEB   2.7    -3.4    1008      70      32    0.00     544     537    MON 06Z 01-FEB  -0.5    -2.1    1012      85      21    0.00     544     534    MON 12Z 01-FEB  -2.4    -3.0    1014      88      14    0.00     545     533    MON 18Z 01-FEB   2.2    -5.4    1015      59      29    0.00     545     533    TUE 00Z 02-FEB   0.5    -6.7    1014      65      64    0.00     544     533    TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -2.6    -7.8    1014      73      97    0.06     541     530    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -5.0    -9.1    1012      82     100    0.21     534     525    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -5.9   -11.2    1010      79      98    0.19     530     522    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -5.9   -12.3    1011      78      95    0.05     529     521      

[CentralNebWeather]

This is usually a very good track for Central Nebraska.  GFS gives me alot more snowfall than Euro but that will be cleared up with time on actual low placement and as usual where banding sets up.  I know a couple of weeks back we were predicted to get 1/2" but a band set up over my county and we got 4 inches.  

[bud2380]

Can you post IOW?

[jcwxguy]

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OSH    LAT=  43.98 LON=  -88.55 ELE=   807
 

                                            12Z JAN28

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
 

SAT 12Z 30-JAN   0.4    -0.6    1001      91      69    0.04     540     539    

SAT 18Z 30-JAN   1.7     2.7    1003      90      17    0.00     543     541    

SUN 00Z 31-JAN   2.0     2.1    1004      83      80    0.00     544     541    

SUN 06Z 31-JAN   1.2     2.9    1004      90      69    0.00     546     543    

SUN 12Z 31-JAN   1.0     2.4    1002      94      78    0.00     547     545    

SUN 18Z 31-JAN   1.7     0.9    1002      94      98    0.11     545     544    

MON 00Z 01-FEB   1.4     0.2    1002      94      93    0.07     543     541    

MON 06Z 01-FEB  -0.4    -2.3    1005      90      22    0.00     542     537    

MON 12Z 01-FEB  -1.3    -6.5    1010      90      33    0.00     541     533    

MON 18Z 01-FEB  -0.5    -8.0    1014      79      18    0.00     542     531    

TUE 00Z 02-FEB  -1.3    -6.4    1017      84      11    0.00     546     532    

TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -2.9    -8.0    1020      91      12    0.00     548     533    

TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -6.0    -6.3    1018      87      91    0.01     549     535    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -4.1    -5.8    1011      88      97    0.25     548     539    

WED 00Z 03-FEB  -2.1    -2.4     999      89      78    0.22     541     542    

WED 06Z 03-FEB  -3.3    -3.6     992      93      62    0.21     526     532    

WED 12Z 03-FEB  -6.2   -10.1     993      84      84    0.06     519     524    

WED 18Z 03-FEB  -6.2   -15.4    1000      72     100    0.01     517     517    

THU 00Z 04-FEB  -7.6   -16.7    1011      71      70    0.01     523     515    
 
 
 
 

 

 

[NEJeremy]

 

.95" qpf from euro for lnk snow

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK    LAT=  40.85 LON=  -96.75 ELE=  1188                                            12Z JAN28                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK      MON 06Z 01-FEB   0.1    -1.2    1012      83      43    0.00     546     536    MON 12Z 01-FEB  -1.5    -1.8    1013      82      48    0.00     546     535    MON 18Z 01-FEB   1.7    -4.4    1015      60      68    0.00     546     534    TUE 00Z 02-FEB   0.6    -5.5    1013      64      99    0.02     545     535    TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -2.8    -6.3    1011      76     100    0.12     542     533    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -5.3    -7.7    1008      88      98    0.45     533     526    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -6.3   -11.2    1007      85      99    0.28     529     524    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -6.2   -13.3    1009      81      88    0.06     529     522    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -7.5   -11.8    1013      80      85    0.01     530     520    1    

How about OMA? I'm guessing it's about the same

[jcwxguy]

Can you post IOW?

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: IOW    LAT=  41.63 LON=  -91.55 ELE=   669                                            12Z JAN28                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK    MON 00Z 01-FEB   3.1     0.6    1004      93      91    0.04     548     544    MON 06Z 01-FEB   0.5    -0.3    1007      93      77    0.01     546     540    MON 12Z 01-FEB  -2.0    -2.1    1012      90      20    0.00     547     537    MON 18Z 01-FEB   3.4    -0.9    1014      62      35    0.00     548     538    TUE 00Z 02-FEB   0.9    -1.0    1014      69      75    0.02     550     539    TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -0.4    -2.9    1012      82     100    0.10     550     540    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -1.3    -0.8    1006      88      78    0.28     548     543    TUE 18Z 02-FEB   0.5     1.6     999      92      27    0.02     540     541    WED 00Z 03-FEB   0.5    -0.9     994      96      87    0.06     529     534    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -3.2    -5.5     995      91      96    0.11     525     529    WED 12Z 03-FEB  -7.5   -13.4    1004      82      92    0.02     523     520    

[mlgamer]

Zoomed in

 

Any chance you could post that map so we could see more of Nebraska and Kansas?

[jcwxguy]

How about OMA? I'm guessing it's about the same

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OMA    LAT=  41.30 LON=  -95.90 ELE=   981                                            12Z JAN28                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK    MON 06Z 01-FEB   0.6    -1.3    1012      84      21    0.00     545     535    MON 12Z 01-FEB  -1.3    -2.1    1014      85      23    0.00     546     535    MON 18Z 01-FEB   2.3    -4.3    1015      54      40    0.00     546     534    TUE 00Z 02-FEB   0.9    -4.6    1014      61      84    0.00     546     535    TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -2.8    -4.9    1011      75     100    0.08     544     535    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -5.2    -7.5    1008      87      99    0.37     534     528    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -5.8    -9.6    1005      88      99    0.37     529     526    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -6.9   -13.6    1007      82      91    0.13     528     522    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -8.3   -13.4    1010      80      83    0.01     528     520       

[Geos]

Can you post MKE JCWX?

 

I see Oshkosh stays all snow.

 

The EURO is repeating the 12/28 storm model runs right now. Low ultimately ends up over Chicago, where the other models are.

[jcwxguy]

Any chance you could post that map so we could see more of Nebraska and Kansas?

[jcwxguy]

Can you post MKE JCWX?

 

I see Oshkosh stays all snow.

 

The EURO is repeating the 12/28 storm model runs right now. Low ultimately ends up over Chicago, where the other models are.

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MKE    LAT=  42.95 LON=  -87.90 ELE=   692                                            12Z JAN28                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK     MON 00Z 01-FEB   2.6     0.8    1002      95      85    0.03     547     545    MON 06Z 01-FEB   1.3     0.3    1004      94      99    0.05     545     541    MON 12Z 01-FEB  -0.2    -2.6    1009      94      15    0.00     544     537    MON 18Z 01-FEB   2.6    -6.2    1013      67      13    0.00     546     535    TUE 00Z 02-FEB  -0.9    -4.8    1017      81      11    0.00     549     535    TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -0.6    -3.6    1018      77      90    0.01     551     536    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -2.3    -5.4    1015      87      99    0.15     552     540    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -1.3    -2.1    1008      89      98    0.24     551     544    WED 00Z 03-FEB   0.2     5.2     996      92      41    0.34     544     547    WED 06Z 03-FEB   0.9     1.6     990      98      28    0.04     528     536    WED 12Z 03-FEB  -3.2    -7.7     993      87      95    0.04     522     527    WED 18Z 03-FEB  -4.6   -14.6    1001      65      90    0.02     521     519    THU 00Z 04-FEB  -5.7   -15.5    1012      68      80    0.01     526     517    

[jcwxguy]

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DSM    LAT=  41.53 LON=  -93.65 ELE=   965
 

                                            12Z JAN28

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
 

MON 18Z 01-FEB   2.5    -2.2    1015      54      27    0.00     548     536    

TUE 00Z 02-FEB   0.1    -2.5    1015      59      86    0.00     548     536    

TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -1.7    -4.0    1012      78     100    0.09     547     538    

TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -2.0    -6.4    1005      86     100    0.23     540     536    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -1.6    -3.1     999      91      64    0.25     531     532    

WED 00Z 03-FEB  -5.8    -5.7     998      88      99    0.19     527     528    

WED 06Z 03-FEB  -7.2   -11.7    1003      84      88    0.09     525     523    

WED 12Z 03-FEB  -9.4   -14.1    1010      80      71    0.00     527     519    
 
 
 
 

 

 

[WBadgersW]

Close call here on the Euro. Local forecasters and MKX must hate this winter.

[Geos]

Thank you JCWX.

 

So Milwaukee gets to 33-34° in the dry slot.

 

This look is actually a promising look for some snow in NE IL. Moisture seems to collect when the low gets stretched out behind itself.

 

[FV-Mike]

I know this may be a weenie statement but I am still ok being outside the bullseye this far out. We may not get much snow but  someone is going to get a surprise come Saturday.

[Madtown]

How's it looking towards Madison in your guy's minds. Wife is hoping for a snow day since she just went back to work off maternity leave.

[FV-Mike]

Animated Euro map from CHi met Demetrius Ivory. Gives Chicago 6.6

 

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=929515743806246

[Tom]

Back in the saddle....man, threading the needle is an understatement around here.  Ground temps stay near 32F or just above from about Joliet, IL on north until the dry slot moves on in.  Def looks like a late Dec repeat.

 

How's it looking towards Madison in your guy's minds. Wife is hoping for a snow day since she just went back to work off maternity leave.

 

According the 12z Euro, Madison stays below freezing the entire run...you should be good to stay all snow...maybe a period of mix when the SLP tracks just to the east over LM.

[james1976]

What is the Euro showing for winds?

[Tony]

FROM WPC

 

PREFERENCE: 12Z NAM/ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE

INCREASES MODEL SPREAD EXISTS WITH THE DEVELOPING LONGER WAVE TROF
IN THE LEE OF DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE RUN TO RUN ENSEMBLE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ECENS MEAN REMAINING RELATIVELY CONSISTENT
WHILE THE GEFS/GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A FASTER SOLUTION
THOUGH A BIT FLATTER WITH THE UPSTREAM RIDGE COMPARATIVELY TO THE
ECMWF/ECENS MEAN. THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH
THE UPSTREAM RIDGE EVEN MORE SO THAN THE ECENS MEAN. THE 12Z NAM
IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPSTREAM RIDGE COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN
COMING INTO PHASE WITH INCREASING OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT AND
IS MOST IN LINE WITH TIMING OF THE EARLIER FAVORED 00Z ECMWF
MAKING IT A MORE VIABLE POSSIBILITY. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
TREND IN THE ECMWF DIRECTION PARTICULARLY WITH THE UPSTREAM WAVE
THOUGH TIMING OF THE TROF IS STILL SLOWER AND STRONGER -- CLOSER
TO THE 00Z UKMET AND CMC IN TIMING BUT ALSO THE STRONGEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 12Z UKMET AND CMC TO THEIR
00Z COUNTERPARTS STILL A BIT SLOWER AND STRONGER WHILE THE 12Z
ECMWF LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z RUN IN TIMING IF MAYBE A
SHADE BIT STRONGER; STILL FURTHER CONFIRMING CONTINUITY. BEST
LIKELIHOOD OF POSSIBILITY WOULD BE TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECENS MEAN...WHICH REMAINS BEST REPRESENTED BY THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF
MASS FIELDS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS
BLEND.

[Geos]

Animated Euro map from CHi met Demetrius Ivory. Gives Chicago 6.6

 

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=929515743806246

 

Sweet it shows the result of a secondary deformation band that I mentioned earlier behind the low.

 

DGEX keeps on going east.

 

[gosaints]

Sweet it shows the result of a secondary deformation band that I mentioned earlier behind the low.

 

DGEX keeps on going east.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.totsnow192.gif

You do understand that people on this forum probably look at the DGEX and take it seriously 

[pack402]

Snow base is quickly vanishing in e neb. Wonder if this will affect the track as we inch closer

[Tom]

Another shift in the 12z EPS...seems like the operational runs are always farther NW of the mean solutions.  I'm sitting here scratching my head as well....as I'm sure you guys are also.

 

Wow, the 12z EPS mean snowfall is looking like the main swath is going right through C KS/KC/SE IA/N IL/S WI....this is going to get interesting over the coming days.

[Tom]

What is the Euro showing for winds?

In IA it is showing 30-35 mph sustained winds...gusts over 50mph!

[Tom]

You do understand that people on this forum probably look at the DGEX and take it seriously 

EPS keeps going east so who's to blame???  Something's gotta give...I'm NOT taking this model verbatim, but look how much the EPS mean has shifted in the last 24 hours.  That's a lot for a 51 member ensemble.

 

On another note, at HR 120 the Euro op has SLP near KC but its ensemble mean near SE MO then near C IL/C IN.

[BrianJK]

I know this may be a weenie statement but I am still ok being outside the bullseye this far out. We may not get much snow but  someone is going to get a surprise come Saturday.

 

Agree 100%

[Tony]

Another shift in the 12z EPS...seems like the operational runs are always farther NW of the mean solutions.  I'm sitting here scratching my head as well....as I'm sure you guys are also.

 

Wow, the 12z EPS mean snowfall is looking like the main swath is going right through C KS/KC/SE IA/N IL/S WI....this is going to get interesting over the coming days.

This is actually supported by the WPC in its earlier writeup:

BEST LIKELIHOOD OF POSSIBILITY WOULD BE TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECENS MEAN...WHICH REMAINS BEST REPRESENTED BY THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF MASS FIELDS.

[gosaints]

EPS keeps going east so who's to blame???  Something's gotta give...I'm NOT taking this model verbatim, but look how much the EPS mean has shifted in the last 24 hours.  That's a lot for a 51 member ensemble.

 

On another note, at HR 120 the Euro op has SLP near KC but its ensemble mean near SE MO then near C IL/C IN.

I completely understand it could easily go east.  The amount of spread in the ensembles continues to be huge.  A million different solutions are on the table for sure.  The DGEX is the worst weather model available that is my only point.  The EPS definetly says a southeast trend could happen

[hlcater]

What is up with the ensembles? They are all south of their operational. Even the GEFS.

[gosaints]

What is up with the ensembles? They are all south of their operational. Even the GEFS.

Generally speaking the ensemble means are at least some south and east at this time frame, but the amount spread in this case is larger than normal for sure.

 

Another reason why nobody on this  forum should give there hopes up or throw in the towel until this thing gets on shore.

[Tom]

I completely understand it could easily go east.  The amount of spread in the ensembles continues to be huge.  A million different solutions are on the table for sure.  The DGEX is the worst weather model available that is my only point.  The EPS definetly says a southeast trend could happen

Agree...

[gosaints]

Agree...

I am less confident about anything than I was at this time yesterday.  Even more solutions seem to be on the table.  It really could be congrats Chicago, congrats Madison, MSP, hayward, or anywhere in between.

 

 

Or something none of us want...... relatively lame is completely on the table as well.

 

We seem to be losing sight of the fact that it is not even in NAM range yet

[FV-Mike]

I am less confident about anything than I was at this time yesterday.  Even more solutions seem to be on the table.  It really could be congrats Chicago, congrats Madison, MSP, hayward, or anywhere in between.

 

 

Or something none of us want...... relatively lame is completely on the table as well.

 

We seem to be losing sight of the fact that it is not even in NAM range yet

 

Winterfreak was really hoping you would add Congrats KC

[gosaints]

Winterfreak was really hoping you would add Congrats KC

not off the table

[gosaints]

According to the NAM our entire wave should be on shore in....................................only about 84 hours..

[Money]

Hmmm

[Snowlover76]

If this goes southeast I'll probably lose my

[Tom]

Just took a peak at all the 51 individual members of the 12z EPS run and I'd say about 90% of them never have the SLP past N IL.  The majortiy cut up near STL, then hit a road block (HP near Lake Superior) and gets shoved east towards N OH (ish).  Some really nice systems with a clear comma head shape to them.

[Jaycee]

I like how the EURO sides with the GFS and yet reading this forum has managed to lower my confidence in this storm even more.