January 2014 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

When the ECMWF shows something decent at 240 hours... we can start tracking.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Best gfs run in a month. Nice.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Dewey has a crystal ball.  

[Jesse]

Hope is all we have this winter, still too far out for my liking.

 

Dare I call it eye candy at this point?

It is really easy to be a constant naysayer. Almost lazy.

 

Perhaps you should try to start contributing something meaningful to the discussion.

[Guest Monty67]

Dewey has a crystal ball.  

If he is right about the late January/ early February thing, are we going to create some type of new God-like member status for him.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What's nice is you can see the change taking shape before the resolution change. That is a plus.

[Guest Monty67]

When the ECMWF shows something decent at 240 hours... we can start tracking.

The GFS has it snowing up here by hour 240. The 12Z GEM is not even close.

[TT-SEA]

If he is right about the late January/ early February thing, are we going to create some type of new God-like member status for him.

 

 

Not really... the normal progression of things around here is cold in 6-week cycles during the winter.

 

First cold event ended in mid-December so late January was always the most logical return if it comes back at all.   I originally thought we might sneak in with another follow-up cold shot around Christmas.    Dewey never bought into that plan!

[snow_wizard]

Hope is all we have this winter, still too far out for my liking.

 

Dare I call it eye candy at this point?

 

All models are clear a major change is coming.  Rising heights near the Aleutians, the eastern trough lifts out, and a trough develops in the west.  The big picture is good.

[snow_wizard]

Not really... the normal progression of things around here is cold in 6-week cycles during the winter.

 

First cold event ended in mid-December so late January was always the most logical return if it comes back at all.   I originally thought we might sneak in with another follow-up cold shot around Christmas.    Dewey never bought into that plan!

 

This is the first time I've heard you mention this.

 

I could point to a number of winters that were on a 4 week cycle.

[brody]

It is really easy to be a constant naysayer. Almost lazy.

 

Perhaps you should try to start contributing something meaningful to the discussion.

I have contributed but you choose to see past that.

 

Your reasoning doesn't matter to me Jesse.

 

Perhaps you stay the course and nitpick at will and your personal bromance with Dewey

[Guest Monty67]

Not really... the normal progression of things around here is cold in 6-week cycles during the winter.

 

First cold event ended in mid-December so late January was always the most logical return if it comes back at all.   I originally thought we might sneak in with another follow-up cold shot around Christmas.    Dewey never bought into that plan!

6 weeks....Its just that easy.

[snow_wizard]

What's nice is you can see the change taking shape before the resolution change. That is a plus.

 

The best sign of all is how the time frame has moved up.  The MJO is really being picked up on now.  Looks like the SOI is going to really prove itself to be a good forecasting tool once again.  We just had a +50 daily SOI a few days ago and 6 consecutive days of readings over +20.  Hard to believe such a simple index could be so useful.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not really... the normal progression of things around here is cold in 6-week cycles during the winter.

 

First cold event ended in mid-December so late January was always the most logical return if it comes back at all.   I originally thought we might sneak in with another follow-up cold shot around Christmas.    Dewey never bought into that plan!

Oh Tim...

[snow_wizard]

Just absolutely amazing how damp it is out there. Everything is drenched and dripping. This has to be the dampest inversion I've seen in spite of some filtered sun today.

[TT-SEA]

Just absolutely amazing how damp it is out there. Everything is drenched and dripping. This has to be the dampest inversion I've seen in spite of some filtered sun today.

 

 

Bone dry here.   Everything has completely dried out... even in the shady areas.

 

So glad to live up here during inversions.  

 

It actually looks pretty dry even down in Issaquah.

 

http://s29.postimg.org/z87bmj3af/090vc01581.jpg

[TT-SEA]

6 weeks....Its just that easy.

 

 

Not at all... but its the safest bet which is why Dewey said it.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z spaghetti is really running with the idea of rapid height rises around the NW GOA, Aleutians, and Bering Sea. Our opportunity may be only 10 days away now. Let's hope we have just a little bit of luck this time.

 

Most of the really good ensemble members look good for lowland snow. Few if any show the jet being suppressed too far south.

[snow_wizard]

Nice analog composite.  Our ducks are rapidly lining up here.

 

[Deweydog]

If he is right about the late January/ early February thing, are we going to create some type of new God-like member status for him.

 

I adjusted to early/mid February awhile ago.  I'm a mess.  

 

It's amazing how far a little common sense can take you in a place like this.  

[Deweydog]

Not really... the normal progression of things around here is cold in 6-week cycles during the winter.

 

First cold event ended in mid-December so late January was always the most logical return if it comes back at all.   I originally thought we might sneak in with another follow-up cold shot around Christmas.    Dewey never bought into that plan!

 

No it's not.

[Utrex]

Nice analog composite. Our ducks are rapidly lining up here.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

Loving this model!

 

I also have 96-hour precipitation totals...

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/01/18/12/GFS_3_2014011812_F384_PCPIN_96_HR.png

[snow_wizard]

Loving this model!

I'm particularly fond of the SE ridge.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 12z spaghetti is really running with the idea of rapid height rises around the NW GOA, Aleutians, and Bering Sea. Our opportunity may be only 10 days away now. Let's hope we have just a little bit of luck this time.

 

Most of the really good ensemble members look good for lowland snow. Few if any show the jet being suppressed too far south.

With a little luck, we can help it out.

We can make this whole D**n thing work out.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF says nothing is lined up at all.

 

Nothing even close.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z GFS shows a ton of wet snow at my location. Would love it. 

[snow_wizard]

12Z ECMWF says nothing is lined up at all.

 

Nothing even close.

The ECMWF ensemble has been showing the same thing as the GFS but just a few days later. If you look at the GFS suite of models it shows amazing changes in just 3 days between days 8 and 11.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z GFS shows a ton of wet snow at my location. Would love it.

Right now it appears anything from a wet snow situation on the hills to a more widespread lowland snow threat are both about equally possible. The GFS operational shows the ridge at 160W which usually brings some lowland snow, but not as good as 150. The ECMWF ensemble MJO forecast suggests the ridge would be further east. At least we have something interesting watch now.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12Z ECMWF says nothing is lined up at all.

 

Nothing even close.

I'm not sold on the ECMWF.

[Skagit Weather]

Always amazing how quickly the mood changes on here. I am going to go out on a limb and say that the 18z is going to be completely different than the 12z, but I think that our time is approaching.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Of course the 1000' snow level and higher scenario is always the most likely, but nice to see something potentially promising for some lowland areas as well!

[Phil]

Significant SSW event progged on the GFS: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014011812&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=000

 

We need to weaken that PV over the Hudson Bay for any hope of a blast in the PNW.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS operational. Great run. Pattern change begins before day 10. After day 10 it looks much colder and potentially snowy down to the low lands.

 

12z GFS Ensembles. Definite improvement noted. Several more members dipping below -5c some even colder.

 

12z EURO in disagreement with the GFS. It sucked. Ridge breaks down and slides inland towards the intermountain west leaving us in a weaker splitty flow.

 

12z GEM ridgy and awful

 

Hard to not like what the GFS is trying to sell us, but I'm not buying it yet. Onto 00z. I’m sure it will be 5 days or so before any pattern change for the end of the month into February is fully revealed.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very shallow inversion, usually I am below the inversion line. Not today. Currently sunny and 54, up on the ridge near my house it was 58.

[Bryant]

Not really... the normal progression of things around here is cold in 6-week cycles during the winter.

This is the same concept as the LRC. But yet, whenever it's been brought up before, you've never said a word.

 

This seems to be an attempt to take away from those of us who have been talking about the end of the month/beginning of February time frame for quite a while. Obviously nothing is set in stone, but things are looking better.

[snow_wizard]

This is the same concept as the LRC. But yet, whenever it's been brought up before, you've never said a word.

 

This seems to be an attempt to take away from those of us who have been talking about the end of the month/beginning of February time frame for quite a while. Obviously nothing is set in stone, but things are looking better.

At least we are in the running for something good.

 

I love your avatar!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Two years ago today it rained 5.39" at my house washing a 25" snow pack into the Willamette Valley. There was nearly historic flooding on the small streams in the Central Willamette Valley, hundreds of homes were damaged and several people lost their lives...

[snow_wizard]

Very shallow inversion, usually I am below the inversion line. Not today. Currently sunny and 54, up on the ridge near my house it was 58.

I think it will really tighten its grip this coming week. Probably going to be cold and gray for most of us.

[Bryant]

At least we are in the running for something good.

 

I love your avatar!

Thanks! I'm really hoping this works out for us.

[snow_wizard]

One interesting thing about the ECMWF MJO forecast is it puts a strong wave into 6 and 7 and then rapidly weakens and heads for a re-emergence in octant 5. Out of all of them I think 5 is the best for us, although 6/7 can be good also.