Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 Looks like a snowstorm for somewhere in the Great Lakes. Right now Michigan is in the prime spot. GFS came west this run. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 0z NAM. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 00z gefs ensembles 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 EURO coming in stronger - negative tilt early. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 This looks to be a huge mess the way surface temps are in the 30s, if that verifies I'd almost be glad I'm missing out. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 This looks to be a huge mess the way surface temps are in the 30s, if that verifies I'd almost be glad I'm missing out. If the EURO is correct, it will be firmly below freezing in IL and IN west of I-69. Most of MI looks good. There's something screwy between precipitation type and temperatures on the GFS. Storm taps into the cold air to the north quickly. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 I was going completely off the GFS, hadn't checked the euro at the time of the post. But the GFS has had a slightly warm bias this winter if I remember correctly. It haslow to mid 30s for nearly everyone east of the Mississippi. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleather Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 LOT's AFD this morning notes both the uncertainty and magnitude of this system. I like the tongue-in-cheek humor "... somewhere between Wisconsin and Kentucky..." "AS HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF AFDS...MODELS TEND TOTREND NW WITH TIME AS THEY ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE STRONG CYCLONES LIKETHIS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CAN ALSO HAVE ATENDENCY TO BE TOO QUICK AND TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PHASING...AND THEMAGNITUDE OF PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMDISTURBANCES IS KEY TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. HAVE UPPED POPS TOCHANCE OVER SE HALF OF THE CWA AS A NOD TO THE JUMP TO THE NW INTHE 00Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLESMEANS. ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SOMEWHATMEAGER COLD AIR MASS ON THE NORTHWEST FLANKS OF THIS SYSTEM WHICHCOULD LEND ITSELF TO SOME P-TYPE ISSUES OR MORE OF A WETSNOW...BUT THAT IS PROBABLY GETTING TOO BOGGED DOWN IN DETAILSGIVEN THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. STILL A LOT OF TIME TO WATCH THISSYSTEM AND IT DOES WARRANT ATTENTION BECAUSE IT DOES HAVEPOTENTIAL TO BE LOADED WITH MOISTURE AND LAY DOWN A SWATH OF HEAVYWIND DRIVEN SNOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WISCONSIN AND KENTUCKY." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 If the EURO is correct, it will be firmly below freezing in IL and IN west of I-69. Most of MI looks good. There's something screwy between precipitation type and temperatures on the GFS. Storm taps into the cold air to the north quickly. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016022100/gfs_T850_us_16.pngIts another.mediocre temp set up. Everything will have to go perfect to max out potential. Thermals suck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 There isn't much blocking this week, except a falling AO around -1. If this storm winds up fast, it will probably cut west like the GFS and EURO are showing. @ NW Linn - yeah the GFS has a warm bias. If it says mid 30s I would bet on low 30s. EPS showing several solutions cutting through northern and central IN. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 NAM came in farther NW this run. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlp Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 Looking good. Hopefully NE IL and SE WI can score on this! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 Haven't done much posting since coming out here but it's going to be fun tracking this storm from AZ! 00z EPS has trended much farther NW and more members showing big hits around the lower lakes. Anyone from STL/ORD/DTW is fair game with this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 @ Geo's, to bad thermals aren't colder because this would be a prime setup for Lehs! Doh! It's been the theme this season...either temps are marginal when the setup's are good, or its cold enough but winds are not cooperating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 @ Geo's, to bad thermals aren't colder because this would be a prime setup for Lehs! Doh! It's been the theme this season...either temps are marginal when the setup's are good, or its cold enough but winds are not cooperating. Hey you left too early!This is a classic late winter plaster snow setup where everything gets caked in snow. GEM is the only model to the east now, but is coming west. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 Hey you left too early!This is a classic late winter plaster snow setup where everything gets caked in snow. GEM is the only model to the east now, but is coming west. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160221/12Z/f114/acckucherasnowconus.pngI never left for AZ this early before. Part of the reason why is I had to help my folks out with some important stuff. Meanwhile, I really can't complain as you might imagine. 80's and sunshine does the trick... I'd imagine the GGEM correct NW in time..especially, how it handled the GHD storm...it was the only model farthest SE till about 1-2 days before the storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 12z GEFS keep strengthening this storm system each run...mean avg get it down to a 991mb SLP running up on the west side of the App's. @ OKC, might be another close call for you down there. 12z Euro coming in colder down near the Pan Handle/OK region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 12z Euro coming in NW... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 EURO low starts just west of DFW. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 Euro is gonna cut this thing to western Indiana based on where it's at hr. 72 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 12z Euro gets it down to 987mb in NW OH at HR84... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 This system is loaded with moisture...sorta reminds me of the November 21st storm but this has a track starting off farther south near the Gulf states. I'm off to the pool...I'll be posting later on... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 12z Euro gets it down to 987mb in NW OH at HR84... That's a pretty good low position for western Mi and this area.Thanks Tom! Have fun at the pool! 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 OKwx better get in here, this looks like his storm finally. Nearly 2' down in the Ozarks. Total run. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 I did some looking at several later season snow storms on the east side of Michigan and compared them to what happened here in Grand Rapids. Well, as I had expected for Grand Rapids (and even more so towards the lake shore) systems snow storms in February, March and April tend to favor the east side of the state more so then west Michigan (they also tend to be north of here also) While several of the bigger late winter early spring did affect Grand Rapids in all of the 18 past events I looked at the east side of the state was the so called “sweet” spot of the storms and most of the bigger storms were in March and not February. So in the past (and of course this can always change) If this mid-week storm develops Grand will be more on the western edge of the system and we could be looking at anywhere from no snow at all to may up to 6 to at most 9” of snow. In other words, more than 6” of system snow in February in GR is kind of rare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 I don't think your escaping the snow this time around westMJim. This year anything goes I feel.The NAO will be +, so it will cut west and north of the Ohio River. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 12z Para...consistency among the Euro Op/Para is eye catching...Para drops it down to a 988mb in NW OH...should be a wind driven pastry snow fall. Dynamic cooling will play a big role whoever is close to the track of SLP. This system should have a sweet looking comma shape to it. Fun storm to track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 12z EPS expanding snow shield and the control crushes MO/IL/MI....Euro Control gets it down into low 980's... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 Down to 987 at hr 60 on the nam in ne ark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 NAM coming in NW. Hour 60. 990 mb Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 Gonna look similar to 12z euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 NAM seems to have warmer thermals than the other models... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 Track/Precip look good on the Nam, but temps are marginal...prob having issues with phasing this far out for the model to see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 This thing bears watching, although, I think Mixing might be an issue for my area. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 Chicago looks to get crushed!!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 Well I want Spring, but if it gets cold then bring the snow. Definitely has potential for SE WI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 Track/Precip look good on the Nam, but temps are marginal...prob having issues with phasing this far out for the model to see it. The marginal boundary layer is so shallow it's really not even worth noting. Dynamic cooling would take care of the last several hundred feet of atmosphere. A sounding at ORD at 75 hours. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 Liking underdone. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 ILN says NAM too quick with system. Most likely a night storm for IL. National Weather Service Lincoln IL306 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016High pressure will move across the Great Lakes region on Monday withdry weather and temps lower than what we have had the past few days.However, above normal temps are still expected Mon and Tue witheasterly winds and partly sunny skies.Models all look in much better agreement, than with previous runs,with the developing weather system in the southern plains and itsresulting track northeast. However, ECMWF has trended a littlefurther northwest with the low track and resulting pcpn. NAM appearstoo quick with onset of pcpn in CWA and general thinking is pcpnwill not start until Tue evening in the southern half of the CWA.Pcpn will then spread northeast across the CWA overnight andcontinue through Wed, and then just be in eastern parts of the CWAWed night. Most of the pcpn looks to be east of the IL river, withareas just northwest of the river being only in a chance categoryfor now. Highest pops will be in the eastern and southeastern partsof the CWA late Tue night and Wed. Biggest question now is with p-type. All model soundings look pretty consistent that pcpn willbegin as light rain north of the system and before the cold airarrives in the area. Temps will not be that warm to start with butcolder air appears to arrive in western IL late Tue night and thenprogress to the east through the CWA during the day Wed. Wordedforecast will read rain and snow, but with the influx of colder air,pcpn will change from rain to snow and there will likely be verylittle mix. First idea of snowfall amounts look to be 2-3 incheseast of the IL river and north of I-70. Amounts will be lessnorthwest of the river and thinking 1-1.5 inches south of I-70. Snowwill continue into Wed night and then should end by Thur morning.Temps Wed will be just below normal for the end of Feb. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 Guessing geos will be riding the euro?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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