Phil Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 Let's turn this into a realistic discussion. Looking at representative analogs featuring summer transitions to La Niña under a +PDO, the analog aggregate of 1936, 1983, 1988, and 1995 looks like this: 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 I'm relaxed. Your methodology is very shaky and reeks of confirmation bias, though. Seems like a disservice to the scientific method to let that kind of thing slide. Especially when it is peddled with such confidence, almost as if summer already happened and it is fact. Who cares? I never claimed this to be scientific. And even if you try to be purely scientific... nature still bites you in the a** as Phil pointed out yesterday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 Let's turn this into a realistic discussion. Looking at representative analogs featuring summer transitions to La Niña under a +PDO, the analog aggregate of 1936, 1983, 1988, and 1995 looks like this: image.png image.png I really like 1936, 1988, and 1995. 1983 was decent but I would not expect it to be that chilly this summer given how warm we have been running for so long. Jesse agrees with this as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 Who cares? I never claimed this to be scientific. And even if you try to be purely scientific... nature still bites you in the a** as Phil pointed out yesterday. Fair enough. I will remember this post next time you are jumping all over Jim's methodology. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 By far, 1936 is the best match. The rest (1988, 1983, 1995) are all good large scale matches, though diverge in wave orientation to some degree, which is to be expected. Here's 1936: Here's 1983, 1988, and 1995: Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 Won't matter... we are in a new climate regime. Some records at SEA from this time of year include 1987, 1992, 2004 which were warm summers. PDX records include years like 1987. 1992, 2004, 2009, and 2013.We can throw out all of those years. They're all either +ENSO and/or trending +QBO. In other words, polar opposite to this year. They're good anti-logs, though, so you can incorporate them that way. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 By far, 1936 is the best match. The rest (1988, 1983, 1995) are all good large scale matches, though diverge in wave orientation to some degree, which is to be expected. Here's 1936: image.png Here's 1983, 1988, and 1995: image.png Glad to hear that 1936 was a great summer here... an early start but then had the typical damp late May / early June period and then turned really nice into October. No extreme heat... just consistently sunny and warm. I just think the 1930s were a strange decade and might not ever be a good guide for forecasting. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 We can throw out all of those years. They're all either +ENSO and/or trending +QBO. In other words, polar opposite to this year. They're good anti-logs, though, so you can incorporate them that way. Got it. At least there is no evidence that early April warmth leads to cold summers here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 Let's find out, then. We'll aggregate the summer Niña transition/+PDO analogs 1936/1983/1988/1995 into A/M/J and J/A/S monthly compilations. Here's what we observe: A/M/J: J/A/S 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 After Friday's warmth, the weather looks boring for the foreseeable future. Reminds me why April sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 Also, I'm looking at a few additional ENSO analogs with the +IO/+PDO configuration (reflects proper AAM/H-Ws), most of which are in the 1930s/1940s. I'll probably end up with several additional analog years. I've just recently come to comprehend the crucial nature of properly matching the underlying IO/IOD phase. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 After Friday's warmth, the weather looks boring for the foreseeable future. Reminds me why April sucks. Yeah... a lush green landscape with flowers blooming everywhere and blues skies and pleasant weather is a nightmare. There is more to life than tracking rain events. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 Yeah... a lush green landscape with flowers blooming everywhere and blues skies and pleasant weather is a nightmare. There is more to life than tracking rain events. It's a rather incredible psychological and physical burden attempting to be as culturally refined as you. I barely have the fortitude to even think about summer yet, let alone argue for days on end about it, LOL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 It's a rather incredible psychological and physical burden attempting to be as culturally refined as you. I barely have the fortitude to even think about summer yet, let alone argue for days on end about it, LOL! Too bad for you. I am going to sit inside in a dark room and pout for the next week because April sucks! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 Pretty deep trough later next week... made some convection up here? http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls14/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls14-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-6Jq3fd.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 Too bad for you. I am going to sit inside in a dark room and pout for the next week because April sucks! An internet-less, week long dark room sabbatical might be just what the shrink ordered for you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 An internet-less, week long dark room sabbatical might be just what the shrink ordered for you. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 GFS MOS is strange... showing 69 at SEA tomorrow and 70 on Friday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 GFS MOS is strange... showing 69 at SEA tomorrow and 70 on Friday.That's Celsius, not Fahrenheit. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 61 at PDX as of 1pm. Would take a rapid jump in temps the next few hours for them to crack 75. Certainly possible with the warm airmass currently moving in, though. Just need to get some of that warmth to mix down. Early September sun angles working their magic for the time being! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 6, 2016 Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 We went to Five Guys this evening and the fries were a little overcooked. Any thoughts on what this might mean for summer? Five Guys started in Virginia. VA has very warm, humid summers... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 7, 2016 Report Share Posted April 7, 2016 Nice day! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 7, 2016 Report Share Posted April 7, 2016 Nice day! 75 is a tragic nightmare but 74 is a nice day? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 7, 2016 Report Share Posted April 7, 2016 75 is a tragic nightmare but 74 is a nice day? Who said 75 was a tragic nightmare? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 7, 2016 Report Share Posted April 7, 2016 Who said 75 was a tragic nightmare? I thought you were tracking 75 at PDX and at 5:01 p.m. when 74 became official you proclaimed it a nice day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 7, 2016 Report Share Posted April 7, 2016 I thought you were tracking 75 at PDX and at 5:01 p.m. when 74 became official you proclaimed it a nice day. I had actually just gotten back from a walk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted April 7, 2016 Report Share Posted April 7, 2016 High of 78 in Klamath Falls. I broke my record high of 77 set in 1996. I also was a few degrees above forecast temperature. If tomorrow performs similarly, I should achieve 82-84, and that would be another record. Who said 75 was a tragic nightmare? 45 and drizzle is your favorite weather right? Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted April 7, 2016 Report Share Posted April 7, 2016 Peaked at 70 around 5:30, holding around that still, great evening. Tomorrow will be spectacular, looking forward to it after the turd of a winter we had. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted April 7, 2016 Report Share Posted April 7, 2016 Nice evening! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 7, 2016 Report Share Posted April 7, 2016 Light east wind here this morning and 61 already. Nice morning. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 7, 2016 Report Share Posted April 7, 2016 Light east wind here this morning and 61 already. Nice morning.East winds gusting to 30mph or higher at Troutdale this morning, with a temp in the low 60s. Meanwhile PDX fell to 47 and VUO hit 43. Will be interesting to see if the winds end up spreading across the Portland metro area today, and what affect they have on high temps, if any. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 7, 2016 Report Share Posted April 7, 2016 12Z GFS is way different for next Tuesday compared to the 00Z run. Much cooler and wetter. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted April 7, 2016 Report Share Posted April 7, 2016 12Z GFS is way different for next Tuesday compared to the 00Z run. Much cooler and wetter.Why are you worried about next Tuesday? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 7, 2016 Report Share Posted April 7, 2016 Why are you worried about next Tuesday?Not worried at all... just brought it up to show objectivity to Jesse. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 7, 2016 Report Share Posted April 7, 2016 Not worried at all... just brought it up to show objectivity to Jesse. You should be objective because it is virtuous, not for the sole purpose of proving that you are to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 7, 2016 Report Share Posted April 7, 2016 You should be objective because it is virtuous, not for the sole purpose of proving that you are to me. I am trying to impress you! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted April 7, 2016 Report Share Posted April 7, 2016 I am trying to impress you!It's creepy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 7, 2016 Report Share Posted April 7, 2016 It's creepy. Shut up... I am just joking around. Stop taking it so seriously. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 7, 2016 Report Share Posted April 7, 2016 12Z Canadian actually agrees for the middle of next week... http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_168_0000.gif But the timing might be great for a nice weekend next week as well. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 7, 2016 Report Share Posted April 7, 2016 Shut up... I am just joking around. Stop taking it so seriously.Hard not to after the turd of a winter we just had. >:C Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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