October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow these suckers popped up out of nowhere. 

[NWbyNW]

Remember these images.  These may be the cleanest air till next Tuesday.  Winds will shift eastward around 2am sucking more smoke towards the Puget Sound lowlands and the Willamette Valley.  Red Flag warnings have been placed.  There is high fire danger.  The last red flag warnings like this we had is when the Bolt Creek Fire started during a two day period of high fire risk and we've been dealing with it's smoke ever sense.  We don't need more fires, please be smart people.  (I know you guys are smart... I think )

 

 

[NWbyNW]

[Gradient Keeper]

35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow these suckers popped up out of nowhere. 

[Deweydog]

Still dry here. 

[Deweydog]

Today TIED for latest 82+ on record at PDX. 1991.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Today TIED for latest 82+ on record at PDX. 1991.

Analog?!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems legit...

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Analog?!

I’m gonna go all real estatey and call it a comp.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems legit...

You get warm fingered!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 6.5

[RentonHill]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS Day 6.5

Timing

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems legit...

February 2021 in mid November????

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Ridge too close and configuration not the best so the cold trough slides southeast instead of digging down over us.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Ridge too close and configuration not the best so the cold trough slides southeast instead of digging down over us.

Cold nights though! I don’t care if the entire region burns to the ground as long as we get some cold nights!!

[Meatyorologist]

Clear move forward in timing. QPF is still less than ideal though.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 7.5

[van city]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Ridge too close and configuration not the best so the cold trough slides southeast instead of digging down over us.

What's new.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Ridge too close and configuration not the best so the cold trough slides southeast instead of digging down over us.

Too soon, junior

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS keeps that block steady around 150W. Makes sure cold NW flow stays entrenched for an extended period over the area.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er, block pivoting and amplifying, flow bending around off Bc Coast. I feel like we're model riding in December.

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Ridge too close and configuration not the best so the cold trough slides southeast instead of digging down over us.

Hey this model have persistently showed the GOA/Pacific troughs heading west out in the open waters. It could slide west over land too! Lulgoofus. 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er, block pivoting and amplifying, flow bending around off Bc Coast. I feel like we're model riding in December.

Yeah this is one of those "ooooh prettty!!" model runs in a better time of year.

[Gradient Keeper]

Reload!

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er, block pivoting and amplifying, flow bending around off Bc Coast. I feel like we're model riding in December.

December? i'm down for right now 

Where's my Sub 980 low? 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Model riders, assemble!

[Meatyorologist]

I think @Phil might pop in later tonight with a few comments about this one. Something about perfect wavedriving off SE Asia for cold outbreaks in the western US.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

The 00z GFS at least gives some cool weather for a bit. Still way too dry. The GEM continues to be a nightmare.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Now watch the EC take it all away...

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Now watch the EC take it all away...

Oh Tiger!!! Brother you were so optimistic earlier today 

[Cloud]

Well, at least it’s trying to find a compromise with the euro. But it sure seems to be caving that way. Next few days are gonna be different for this model. Euro is holding serve. 

[Meatyorologist]

ICON is almost a carbon copy of the GFS.

[Gradient Keeper]

Chilly offshore flow! HERE WE GO!

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Now watch the EC take it all away...

Negative, ghost rider.

00z ECMWF in 1 hour!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS ALERT. Record warm October in jeopardy. 

[Cloud]

Dry troughing isnt gonna cut it. But baby steps 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Chilly offshore flow! HERE WE GO!

Brings a good half inch of precip to Portland before the arctic air arrives too!

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

ICON is almost a carbon copy of the GFS.

The ICON is the real king. Dead serious. Especially for QPF.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Dry troughing isnt gonna cut it. But baby steps 

It isn't totally dry