October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[NWbyNW]

We're back to cruddy crud. 50F.

Light Smoke.

 

Current view.

[NWbyNW]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

WRF-GFS shows east winds ~15mph with gusts 25-30mph on Saturday here

Yep, it's not going to be good for the smoldering fires.  It's going to blow MUCHO MUCHO smoke over the populace.  But Monday-Tuesday next week, winds appear to shift onshore which could clear us out for the week if these models are correct. 

[snow_wizard]

I just checked out the precip rank for WA for June through September and it ranks second driest since 1895.  The driest was 1929.

[Winterdog]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah I didn’t think the 12z was as awful as previous runs.

I agree.  I feel kinda like in the movie Groundhog Day when Bill Murray got so excited when something different happened. 50 after a low of 39 and very smokey

[Cascadia_Wx]

Warm or cold, my main concern is that it doesn’t rain anytime soon. The longer it stays bone dry, the better our prospects of a fabulous winter are looking, or something.

[NWbyNW]

Why are we doing this leg thing exactly?  I purposely put on pants because my legs need to only be used for good.

 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

WRF-GFS shows east winds ~15mph with gusts 25-30mph on Saturday here

Definitely trended breezier.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah I didn’t think the 12z was as awful as previous runs.

Much better in the 8 to 12 day range than previous.

[Cloud]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Warm or cold, my main concern is that it doesn’t rain anytime soon. The longer it stays bone dry, the better our prospects of a fabulous winter are looking, or something.

I don't know man... we better get some freaking rain soon or next spring/summer is going to be quite brutal with the water situation. I'm more concerned about that. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Cloud said:

I don't know man... we better get some freaking rain soon or next spring/summer is going to be quite brutal with the water situation. I'm more concerned about that. 

No, I find this dryness just downright fascinating. Plus there was this one year about 100 years ago where it was almost this dry and we got absolutely hammered in January. I’m really liking this. Wow!!!!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Why are we doing this leg thing exactly?  I purposely put on pants because my legs need to only be used for good.

 

I would never post a picture of my feet without shoes.  My feet are my absolute worst feature.  Good thing we normally wear shoes in this climate!

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

No, I find this dryness just downright fascinating. Plus there was this one year about 100 years ago where it was almost this dry and we got absolutely hammered in January. I’m really liking this. Wow!!!!

I'm not happy about this dryness.  As you say we had better get something this winter or next year will get ugly.  Can't think of anything worse for the glaciers.

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

No, I find this dryness just downright fascinating. Plus there was this one year about 100 years ago where it was almost this dry and we got absolutely hammered in January. I’m really liking this. Wow!!!!

I see where you're going. 

[snow_wizard]

Looking much more EPS like.

[snow_wizard]

We'll have to see if the more continental flavor this weekend gets more locations down into the 30s for mins.

[Deweydog]

The guy who cleaned my teeth yesterday said he hopes this continues. Sometimes small talk cuts deep.

[Omegaraptor]

Crazy how green things still look here on the OSU campus. Not much progress on the trees. The unusual warmth is one factor but the unusually late leafout this spring may very well be another.

[AlTahoe]

32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

There has been speculation the approaching solar grand minimum would make things blockier.  We have had two consecutive solar cycles that were lowest since the Dalton Minimum so that might be coming home to roost.  In general a blockier regime means more extreme fluctuation from one year to the next or even one season to the next.  Much greater potential for exciting outcomes in the NW, but of course it can get painfully boring if a ridge is sitting right over you for months on end.

Yep been pretty evident here. 

From 1971-2016 we only had 3 winter months with 100"+ of snow.

4 of the last 7 winters have had 100+" months. We have also had some of the most extreme dry periods in that same period. Feast or Famine. 

[T-Town]

34 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

We're back to cruddy crud. 50F.

Light Smoke.

 

Current view.

Not as thick here. Yet…

[BLI snowman]

32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just checked out the precip rank for WA for June through September and it ranks second driest since 1895.  The driest was 1929.

Keep in mind that June wound up wet. July through October should safely be at an unprecedented level. 

[Winterdog]

26 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I see where you're going. 

Yeah, it was quite subtle.

[BLI snowman]

This has to be the weakest season for fall color in memory here. We all kinda expected it but sheesh it's pitiful.

[NWbyNW]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Not as thick here. Yet…

Lucky.  You should be better off as a whole I would think... but who knows anymore.

[MossMan]

It needs to rain…A lot…I don’t care if it’s 35 degrees or 65 degrees…Liquid needs to fall from the sky and soon. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Feels like I wake up to this smoke greeting me every morning now.

Hope everybody had a good sleep.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

It needs to rain…A lot…I don’t care if it’s 35 degrees or 65 degrees…Liquid needs to fall from the sky and soon. 

It’s gonna flip. In a big way. Eventually.

[joelgombiner]

This latest batch of smoke doesn't seem to be affecting my breathing as much. 

I wonder whether AQI (which measures a concentration of particles finer than a size threshold) doesn't capture the compositional range in smoke, and thus the variable effects on our respiratory systems. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

27 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

This has to be the weakest season for fall color in memory here. We all kinda expected it but sheesh it's pitiful.

I’m shocked that anything is still alive. Our plants and trees need a drink very badly.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF not backing down at all... very wet one week from today.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

The Euro still gives us a nice slug or rain next Friday afternoon/night. The trough is trending a bit east though. 

[Kayla]

12z Euro is still holding serve.

[Winterdog]

The colors are definitely a bit duller than normal but it’s still definitely fall like here.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Winterdog said:

The colors are definitely a bit duller than normal but it’s still definitely fall like here.

Did you finally get rid of that dying western hemlock?

[Gradient Keeper]

Euro is $$$$$$ Stop worrying over the awful bipolar GFS op runs. I know many still will, but stop!

[Gradient Keeper]

It's even better than previous runs holding the ridge more firmly around ~160 W allowing the cold trough to dig and not nudging eastward.

18z GFS in 2 hours 45 minutes

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Euro is $$$$$$ Stop worrying over the awful bipolar GFS op runs. I know many still will, but stop!

I mean we have basically been under some sort of top tier 500mb ridge more often than not the last three months. And there have been many false hints at pattern changes where the Euro is more aggressive but the GFS has stuck with torchy, dry persistence and ended up right. So you really can’t blame people for wondering if this is just another head fake.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I mean we have basically been under some sort of top tier 500mb ridge more often than not the last three months. And there have been many false hints at pattern changes where the Euro is more aggressive but the GFS has stuck with torchy, dry persistence and ended up right. So you really can’t blame people for wondering if this is just another head fake.

True. Very true. A lot of anxiousness or angst given the unprecedented run of record "heat" into mid-October after previous months of dry and warm. BUT this time it's a lock. Ummm. Yep.

[Deweydog]

PDX running a -0 compared to yesterday at this time.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

PDX running a -0 compared to yesterday at this time.

I am continuously amazed at how warm we are getting in the afternoon without any sort of offshore wind even surfacing. The last few weeks have definitely rewired what I consider the high water mark of early to mid October climo. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I am continuously amazed at how warm we are getting in the afternoon without any sort of offshore wind even surfacing. The last few weeks have definitely rewired what I consider the high water mark of early to mid October climo. 

Soil moisture definitely playing a huge role as well as the thermal belt’s ability to stay intact at an unprecedented level/persistence. Any inversions have been ridiculously shallow.