October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Smoke has cleared a bit. Thank goodness.

Another shitt GFS run. The model war continues.

[Blizzard777]

He’s Back !!!

Nest cam caught the action last night.  Hope the video shows
 

[MV_snow]

Pretty sad that we’re in mid Oct and model riding just for normal Fall rains instead of lowland snow.

I definitely put more stock in the Euro’s solution given the EPS is rock solid. The 12z GEFS also looks pretty good so I wouldn’t put much stock in the GFS Op beyond day 7 anyway. I definitely get the anxiety though given the anomalies since late July.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

GEFS is crap. Low next weekend is weakened and further west. 

[Winterdog]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm going for around a 60% chance the ECMWF will be right.  I have no idea why the GFS and ECMWF are so different right now.

The problem I have is that there are no ensemble members among the last three GFS runs that agree at all with the Euro operational output.  I will not be surprised at all if the 0Z Euro starts hedging towards the GFS.

[Sonny Summers]

38 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Normally the Euro is the more accurate of the two but ever since last July it has been unwise to bet against dryness and torching. So who knows which will prevail.

The 00z GFS run will be wearing a beret and carrying a baguette. Let's hope so anyway.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Team Euro

 

Team GFS

 
 

pick your challenger

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

at Cafe Milano?

At Del Frisco Grille, but that's before I got there.

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like the Cedar Creek fire is up to 122k acres. Fires of that size west of the Cascade Crest are, at least supposed to be, rare events. You have the Yacolt Burn, Tillamook Burn, 1936 Bandon, and September 2020 burns and that's really about it for massive westside fires.

[Blizzard777]

13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Team Euro

 

Team GFS

 
 

pick your challenger

If it’s Hat I will go out and play more!

If wet finally happens I suppose the house needs a lot of attention as I’ve ignored it all summer

But….no matter what I should probably clean the gutters in the next 7 days regardless.   I’ve got a plan

[High Desert Mat?]

Maybe everyone should wash their cars. I mean, it works in the winter if you buy a snowblower or snow shovel it usually doesn’t snow. 

[Cloud]

75 for the high at SEA. Talk about an over performing a** day for the wrong reasons. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Which one would bring out the weenie in you the most? Pick below!

1) The 00z GFS holds serve with another ugly run and the GEFS minimal precip with ridging. The 00z ECMWF and EPS doesn't budge as well showing the pattern change at Day 7-8 with cold trough sitting over us. Wet, chilly, mountain snows.

.... OR

2) The 00z GFS moves towards the EURO with chilly troughing throughout Day 8-16, but the 00z ECMWF moves towards the previous GFS with only a brief, transitory trough and upper low digging well offshore leading to another ridge.

[joelgombiner]

Seattle has the 8th worst air quality in the world. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

30 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Which one would bring out the weenie in you the most? Pick below!

1) The 00z GFS holds serve with another ugly run and the GEFS minimal precip with ridging. The 00z ECMWF and EPS doesn't budge as well showing the pattern change at Day 7-8 with cold trough sitting over us. Wet, chilly, mountain snows.

.... OR

2) The 00z GFS moves towards the EURO with chilly troughing throughout Day 8-16, but the 00z ECMWF moves towards the previous GFS with only a brief, transitory trough and upper low digging well offshore leading to another ridge.

Number 2 would be more upsetting to me at this point. 

[Phil]

6 hours ago, Sonny Summers said:

Of course the East Coast gets above average snowfall in January. Please wait while I grab my barf bag.

Why the hate?

[Sonny Summers]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Why the hate?

We've enjoyed our good friend Reggie McRidgerson way too often over the years. I can only tolerate so much fog.

[TacomaWx]

Hadn’t looked at the models the last few days. Can’t believe how dry they are through the next 7 days. Only glimmer of hope is the euro +7 days out. 

[MossMan]

This evening at soccer practice. 
70 for a high. 

[Sonny Summers]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Hadn’t looked at the models the last few days. Can’t believe how dry they are through the next 7 days. Only glimmer of hope is the euro +7 days out. 

[The Blob]

9 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Next round of feet photos should be of all of us wearing Nikes and drinking Kool-Aid.

Only got safety shoes, but I did have kool-aid earlier today. 

The smoke layer was thick this afternoon, I could only see the bottom half of Mt.Hood going to work.

[TT-SEA]

21 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This evening at soccer practice. 
70 for a high. 

That bare tree makes it look like its the dead of winter and cold there.  

[The Blob]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That bare tree makes it look like its the dead of winter and cold there.  

But it's really 80

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Latest 83+ on record at PDX.

A record that will be re-set Saturday or Sunday. Not even a close call or even making it interesting.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

And yeah there is not doubt in my mind the GFS will win this model battle. Euro is a better model objectively, but that doesn’t negate the fact that an inordinate amount of weight should always be given to whichever model is warmer and drier for our region. 

[Phishy Wx]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm going for around a 60% chance the ECMWF will be right.  I have no idea why the GFS and ECMWF are so different right now.

GFS is not seeing the snow cover upstream in Siberia but Euro is?.  GeoPolitical?

[Blizzard777]

48 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This evening at soccer practice. 
70 for a high. 

Saturns in orbit again! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

And yeah there is not doubt in my mind the GFS will win this model battle. Euro is a better model objectively, but that doesn’t negate the fact that an inordinate amount of weight should always be given to whichever model is warmer and drier for our region. 

Ugh

[Gradient Keeper]

Here we go! Time for a good GFS run! C'MON!!!!

[Deweydog]

00z is running!

[SnowWillarrive]

4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow what a terrible run.

We truly are in the end of days. 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

00z is running!

Better go catch it!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! 
 

Ahhhhh…It needs to weather soon. 

[The Blob]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

00z is running!

[Phil]

That’s a massive Aleutian low.

[Cloud]

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Better go catch it!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! 
 

Ahhhhh…It needs to weather soon. 

With the way it’s been running… no one want to catch the D**n thing  

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

This evening at soccer practice. 
70 for a high. 

Nice to have the Eye of Sauron watching over soccer practice. 

[GobBluth]

That is a huge ridge rebuilt by next Wednesday.

[Cloud]

The D**n thing is actually holding quite firm lol. 

[Cloud]

Just another DOA GFS run. Don’t really need to see beyond 7

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Feels bad, man