Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Day 8 Nope. Perhaps the EPS won't have such a sharply tilted block. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 1 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: Quite accurate. The ECMWF so often dashes our hopes and stomps on our cold, snowy dreams. EPS could be better or best yet though as we've seen many times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Wow. Still a lot to be settled with the progression of that second trough. Yuge potential though. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Day 9'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: Quite accurate. The ECMWF so often dashes our hopes and stomps on our cold, snowy dreams. EPS could be better or best yet though as we've seen many times. This run may still get better at the very end. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Euro vs GEM and Euro vs GFS at Day9. GFS odd one out (duh) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 As @SouthHillFrosty knows very well the 00z Euro is POS. 12z will bring it all back. Or was it the other way around i cant remember whatever 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Cold still very close on this run, and in fact is cold over us. 5 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Pattern ends up evolving mega wet and mild? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 That is one odd progression on this run. The low level stuff is still pretty cold. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 1 hour ago, HuskyMaestro said: Super noob question but to read these maps, dark blues, purples, and pinks mean lower pressure that causes rain and snow while reds and oranges are higher pressures that cause hotter, sunnier weather? I remember asking this during the summer but wasn't sure if the same principles apply during colder months. Might take me years to learn the weather jargon and use these to predict forecasts, I could barely read GFS/Euro maps as it stands and it's only because of the colors, lol. I've been a member of this board every winter for like 7 or 8 years now. I'm still learning how to read them. I know just enough to be dangerously wrong. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Day 10 Mega turd.... 6z GFS in 2 hours 38 minutes 12z GFS in 8 hours 38 minutes 12z ECMWF in 10 hours 48 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Pattern ends up evolving mega wet and mild? Could end up cold still. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: Day 10 Mega turd.... 6z GFS in 2 hours 38 minutes 12z GFS in 8 hours 38 minutes 12z ECMWF in 10 hours 48 minutes I kind of disagree. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 500mb isn't everything. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Now I want to see how the EPS(ECMWF Ensembles) look Day 6+. Can't possibly be that bad. Right. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Alright time to compare. EPS Day 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Day 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 I just don't think that run is as bad as it appears at first blush. The 12z will be different anyway. just about guaranteed in this case. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Now I want to see how the EPS(ECMWF Ensembles) look Day 6+. Can't possibly be that bad. Right. Lol I'm betting it will be way different. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Day 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: 500mb isn't everything. How cold do things end up getting on this run? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Yeah, let's just call this a bad run. The PNA jumps to neutral at the end. The EPO is still tanked though 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Day 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Day 6 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 I jinxed it with my Think Cold and SNOW! and highly irritated King EURO. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Day 7... Rob? 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Day 8 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Just now, Kolk1604 said: Day 8 I think that's Day 9'er. Not bad. Block still very tilted which would be okay if it were a bit further east -----> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: I think that's Day 9'er. Not bad. Block still very tilted which would be okay if it were a bit further east -----> Lol whoops I actually skipped Day 7... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 I think we’re ok. Means improved vs 12z 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Day 10 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Sure glad the Op was an outlier then. We're back in business! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 2 hours ago, Kolk1604 said: The GEM is stupid wet Probably the wettest run I've ever seen for up here. 12-14" in the next ten days. Even 1/2-1/3 of that would still be wet. 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 I’m starting to have a really good feeling about this November cold. We haven’t had a good November arctic blast since 2014 so I feel like we have to be due. I haven’t seen snow in November since 2017 and based on past Novembers with snow I saw snow in November 2006, 2010, 2014, and 2017 so based off that I feel like we have to be due for at least some snow in November. 4 1 Quote 2024 Warm Season Stats Number of 80+ days - 1 Number of 85+ days - 1 (warmest so far - 85) Number of 90+ days - 0 Number of 95+ days - 0 Number of 60+ lows - 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 It's not even November yet and you guys are freaking out over one bad Op run? Ugghh, the next time I have to come in here, I'm crackin' skulls. 2 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny Summers Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Judah Cohen @judah47 Due to personal reasons I will be away for work for this entire week so there will be no blog(but plenty of dogs). I will return the week of November 7th. 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by SouthHillFrosty,
Congrats Frosty!!!
Recommended by Meatyorologist
35 reactions
Go to this post
Posted by T-Town,
Incredible tornado footage.
Recommended by Meatyorologist
13 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.