TT-SEA Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 This pattern sure feels like its going to lead to a wet/cool period from mid-May through mid-June. Just going by intuition and a feeling I get from having looked at pretty much every spring since 1877 over the last couple months and seeing how patterns evolve here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 Pretty big explosion of cells tomorrow afternoon and evening per the HRRR...http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016050300/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f26.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 HRRR was an epic fail for today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 Had a brief period of 81 degree rain this evening when I was driving through Shoreline. Big drops and it just felt ridiculously warm to be raining. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 Had a brief period of 81 degree rain this evening when I was driving through Shoreline. Big drops and it just felt ridiculously warm to be raining. The drops were huge. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 Seen a bit of lightning in Ferndale around 9, but never heard the thunder. Must have been quite far in the distance 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 I've been hearing thunder here for the past 30 minutes but it's not very loud. No rain hitting the ground but it's cloudy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 Totally ridiculous. Has there been any spring in history comparable to this one up there? Not for extreme heat events. The 83 last month was historic and today's 86 also set a record for the earliest that mark has been reached. Seattle's warm season climate is reaching Bellingham, after Portland's warm season climate reached Seattle in 2014. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 86 at BLI today. Not sure why we're overachieving so much.4 degrees warmer than they ever got the entire 2011 Summer. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 Wildfire season is off to a busy start in bc, as it has been warm across the entire province. Close to 40,000 acres have burned in recent days across the North, and ground crews have been pulled back from aggressive fire behavior. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 Interestingly Mark Nelsen made a comment on a fb group today that he is hoping for a cooler summer "Another hot summer would be weird." 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 Nice sunrise this morning... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 The HRRR continues to show an explosion of activity tonight while the other models don't show much. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016050311/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f18.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bham_Guy Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 4 degrees warmer than they ever got the entire 2011 Summer. Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if yesterday ends up being the warmest day of the year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 First half of May is looking really warm at this point. Basically all of the cool ensemble members evaporated the last few runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 12z EURO is cooler overall from this weekend onward. At odds with the GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 First half of May is looking really warm at this point. Basically all of the cool ensemble members evaporated the last few runs.This spring has been pretty 1992ish so far, and May looks like it's going to be similar too. I'd take the winter that followed. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 This spring has been pretty 1992ish so far, and May looks like it's going to be similar too. I'd take the winter that followed. Yeah, I would even take that summer compared to the last two. Very warm in May and June falling closer to average (although still a bit warmer than normal) in July and August. Only five 90+ days in July and five 90+ in August , interspread with a lot of marine layer days and even a few rainy periods thrown in there, as well as cooler nights overall. Absolute heaven compared to the last two summers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 This spring has been pretty 1992ish so far, and May looks like it's going to be similar too. I'd take the winter that followed. Before someone else says it...PINATUBO!!! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 Yeah, I would even take that summer compared to the last two. Very warm in May and June falling closer to average (although still a bit warmer than normal) in July and August. Only five 90+ days in July and five 90+ in August , interspread with a lot of marine layer days and even a few rainy periods thrown in there, as well as cooler nights overall. Absolute heaven compared to the last two summers.I think pretty much everybody on this board would be fine with a 1992 type summer (at least until the somewhat cooler and cloudier than normal September). It had a good mix of everything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 Before someone else says it...PINATUBO!!!Hopefully this fuels a debate between Tim and Phil about ENSO, volcanic contamination, and summer analogs. That would be a really fresh, new, and interesting discussion. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 This just looks like another tricky day for storms. I have been overcast all day and morning. Not a bit of sun. Eastern section of my county had some convection move through but doesn't seem like anything else is trying to form at the moment. I see a cap is still in place in much of SW Oregon. Ouch. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 19 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 I said 1992 was an analog year earlier and then was mocked by Phil for even suggesting it since the Nino did not transition to a Nina that year. Sure seems like the volcanic influence kicked in during the middle of 1992 and was still going in 1993 which was a really strange summer across North America. There is speculation that volcanic influence enhanced the super storm in the East in March of 1993 and led to massive flooding in the Midwest that summer. I could still see the rest of this year playing out like 1992. Just not sure about the ENSO situation though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 Fun will be when this summer ends up dissimilar in some ways, similar in others to almost every summer in the PNW's climate history. Expect the unexpected! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 Fun will be when this summer ends up dissimilar in some ways, similar in others to almost every summer in the PNW's climate history. Expect the unexpected!Eh, the last two summer have been unprecedented oddballs, especially given the fact that they occurred back to back. Anything even resembling a normal summer here would be a welcome change. There is a reason I don't live in Medford. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 Eh, the last two summer have been unprecedented oddballs, especially given the fact that they occurred back to back. Anything even resembling a normal summer here would be a welcome change. There is a reason I don't live in Medford. Now known as "The New Fresno". Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 Now known as "The New Fresno".I just slapped my knee! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 Eh, the last two summer have been unprecedented oddballs, especially given the fact that they occurred back to back. Anything even resembling a normal summer here would be a welcome change. There is a reason I don't live in Medford. Speaking of Medford... In 2013 they had a "record" summer... In 2014 they had a "record" summer... In 2015 they had a "record" summer. Seriously, how does a city have 3 back-back record summers? And I think in 2006 that was their previous record before this 3 year mega stretch of hot mess. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 19 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 Speaking of Medford... In 2013 they had a "record" summer... In 2014 they had a "record" summer... In 2015 they had a "record" summer. Seriously, how does a city have 3 back-back record summers? And I think in 2006 that was their previous record before this 3 year mega stretch of hot mess. Another record hot summer seems like a reasonable prediction. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 I found these on NWS Medford Facebook page... Apparently Roseburg did the exact same thing as Medford last 3 years. http://i64.tinypic.com/rsznh2.jpghttp://i64.tinypic.com/xf48j6.jpg And Klamath Falls out of curiosity. June wasn't a surprise but I didn't expect the overall summer to be all that hot. August seemed like a normal month, and July wasn't too hot.http://i67.tinypic.com/2ytpwkx.jpg 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 19 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 Eh, the last two summer have been unprecedented oddballs, especially given the fact that they occurred back to back. Anything even resembling a normal summer here would be a welcome change. There is a reason I don't live in Medford. The analog talk for this summer has been unprecedented. It's been pre-winter level hand wringing. Heavy anticipation for what will likely end up being an average or above average summer temperature-wise as we all try to deny ENSO lag. I suppose it makes sense considering there's a whole lot of analogs out there for summers like that. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 The analog talk for this summer has been unprecedented. It's been pre-winter level hand wringing. Heavy anticipation for what will likely end up being an average or above average summer temperature-wise as we all try to deny ENSO lag. I suppose it makes sense considering there's a whole lot of analogs out there for summers like that.I will be happy with basically anything not top tier for heat/humidity, as you pointed out yesterday. Lowered standards, sure. The last few years have been rough. All of the cooler than average summer talk has been making Tim nervous, but it will probably end up being pretty tolerable for him when all is said and done. Now 2017 on the other hand... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 During this stretch, I may have to BEG to mother nature for a t'storm.... It looks difficult to have one now. http://i66.tinypic.com/33ju63o.jpg Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 19 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 I will be happy with basically anything not top tier for heat/humidity, as you pointed out yesterday. Lowered standards, sure. The last few years have been rough. All of the cooler than average summer talk has been making Tim nervous, but it will probably end up being pretty tolerable for him when all is said and done. Now 2017 on the other hand... I think low solar is going to make 2017 a pretty decent summer as well. One we both enjoy. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 I will be happy with basically anything not top tier for heat/humidity, as you pointed out yesterday. Lowered standards, sure. The last few years have been rough. All of the cooler than average summer talk has been making Tim nervous, but it will probably end up being pretty tolerable for him when all is said and done. Now 2017 on the other hand... You both are pretty jumpy. Nothing really new, but you'd think the next four or five months of weather was going to define us as a civilization or something. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 You both are pretty jumpy. Nothing really new, but you'd think the next four or five months of weather was going to define us as a civilization or something. Meh, lower your post count and then maybe we can talk about the futility of weather talk without being too ironic. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 Meh, lower your post count and then maybe we can talk about the futility of weather talk without being too ironic.Has nothing to do with post counts. People can post all day long without being jumpy. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 Has nothing to do with post counts. People can post all day long without being jumpy. No need to get all jumpy, then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 No need to get all jumpy, then. Exactly. Try it! You might like it! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 3, 2016 Report Share Posted May 3, 2016 Exactly. Try it! You might like it! You first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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